tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12290784815680594292024-02-02T16:05:29.808-08:00A life of Japanese journalist Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)たかはし こうすけ Tokyo correspondent for Jane's Defence Weekly (JDW) and Asia Times Online (ATol). Columbia J-School class of '03 and Columbia SIPA of '04. Formerly at the Asahi Shimbun and Dow Jones. Join today and follow @TakahashiKosukeKosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.comBlogger171125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-80424150276362427382012-06-24T05:40:00.000-07:002012-06-24T05:40:06.807-07:00I've moved my blog to SAKURA from Blogger!<span style="font-size: large;"><em>Thank you so much for having visited my blog up until today. I'v moved my blog to SAKURA Internet from Blogger, so that I can have everything in one place such as Japanese and English blogs.</em></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><em>Stay tuned to my new blog at</em></span> <a href="http://kosuke-english.sblo.jp/">http://kosuke-english.sblo.jp/</a><br />
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<em><span style="font-size: large;">Thanks and regards,</span></em><br />
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<em><span style="font-size: large;">Kosuke</span></em>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-82160530435052333012012-06-23T23:33:00.001-07:002012-06-23T23:33:51.171-07:00(My latest for Asia Times) US Marines eye Japan as a training yard<a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/NF23Dh01.html"><span style="color: black; font-family: Tahoma; font-size: large;"><strong>US Marines eye Japan as a training yard</strong></span></a><br />
<img height="5" src="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/images/1pix.gif" width="5" /><br />
People across the eastern part of the Japanese mainland are bracing for low-altitude US military flights, while Okinawans fear the Futenma base will become a permanent feature after a United States Marine Corps report revealed plans to gain a stronger training foothold. With Japan's ruling party distracted by internal strife, it seems the US has twisted acceptance of the plans to its advantage. - <b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> <span style="color: #999999; font-size: xx-small;">(Jun 22, '12)</span> <br />
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<strong>US Marines eye Japan as a training yard</strong>By Kosuke Takahashi <br />
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TOKYO - With the energies of Japanese politicians consumed by infighting, the United States Marine Corps (USMC) is pushing forward with plans to gain a stronger foothold in the Japanese archipelago. <br />
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Taking advantage of the scheduled deployment of MV-22 Osprey transport aircraft to Okinawa, the USMC plans to conduct training flights over almost all of mainland Japan. With US Marines being forced to reduce their military footprint on Okinawa due to local opposition, America seems intent on making the rest of Japan its training yard. <br />
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Starting later this year, the US government plans to deploy a total of 24 Ospreys to the controversial USMC air station at Futenma in Okinawa, to replace aging 24 CH-46 transport helicopters. <br />
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According to a recent USMC report titled "Final Environmental Review for Basing MV-22 at MCAS Futenma and Operating in Japan (April 2012)" the US will use this situation to moves the Ospreys around the Japanese mainland freely. This report, published on Japan's Ministry of Defense website, shows detailed plans for low-altitude flight training in Japan via six different flight routes above the Japanese archipelago highlighted by different colors below. <br />
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<img alt="" src="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/images/jmap220512.gif" /><br />
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Specifically, those six routes are: the Tohoku route across Akita prefecture(pink); the Tohoku route across Miyagi prefecture(green); the Hokushinetsu route across Nigata prefecture(blue); the Shikoku- the Kii peninsula route(orange); the Kyushu route (yellow); the Amami Islands route (purple). <br />
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Those routes apparently avoid flying directly over Japan's four largest metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and Fukuoka, but still cover a large part of eastern Japan. <br />
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The USMC plans have come to light amid a rapidly widening internal rift within the ruling Democratic Party of Japan over Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's plans to double the nation's sales tax. <br />
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The MV-22 "combines the vertical capability of a helicopter with the speed and range of a fixed-wing aircraft", the environmental review stresses about the significance of the planned deployment of the aircraft. "Its capabilities would significantly strengthen Marine Expeditionary Force's (III MEF's) ability to assist in the defense of Japan, perform humanitarian assistance and disaster response, and fulfill other Alliance roles." <br />
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"The US has been always very good at making use of trigger incidents in the past," Ukeru Magosaki, the former chief of the Japanese Foreign Ministry's international intelligence bureau, told Asia Times Online. "It turns situations to its advantage nicely." <br />
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Under the proposed action, the USMC would make the fullest possible use of Camp Fuji in Shizuoka prefecture and Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Iwakuni in Yamaguchi prefecture on mainland Japan and those six routes extending along Japanese islands. Currently, the CH-46E squadrons do not use Camp Fuji and MCAS Iwakuni and those routes. <br />
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"Due to the distance, the CH-46E aircrews do not regularly conduct operations on mainland Japan," the environmental review said. "However, given the MV-22s ability to fly in airplane mode, these aircraft would be able to cover greater distances in less time than the CH-46s." <br />
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The MV-22 can fly roughly twice as fast, four times as far, and carry three times the combat or humanitarian mission load of the CH-46E, it said. Ospreys can fly continuously for up to 3,900 kilometers, while the CH-46E has a maximum flight distance of about 700 kilometers. <br />
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Although the aircraft would be based at MCAS Futenma, the USMC plans to send a detachment of two to six MV-22s to Camp Fuji and MCAS Iwakuni each month for two to three days. At Camp Fuji, the deployed MV-22 detachments are expected to fly about 500 annual operations making for a 10% increase in overall activity at that location. For MCAS Iwakuni, a similar number of annual MV-22 operations are also expected, on average, which would account for a 0.8% increase in total airfield operations. <br />
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The USMC expects that the squadrons would likely fly on one or more of these six routes during each day of these brief deployments, conducting a total of 330 operations annually on each route, the report said. These added operations would result in increases in use averaging 21% for all routes, with the other primary users consisting of AV-8B Harriers and FA-18 Hornets. <br />
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The MV-22 squadrons are expected to conduct 28% and 4% of these six route operations between evening and night, respectively, or about one-third of them during late afternoon and night. In addition, the US plans to conduct low-level flight training down to 500 feet, or 152 meters, above ground level in those six courses, at airspeeds of 120 to 250 knots, depending upon the flight mode. <br />
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The existing US facilities on Okinawa will be a major component of the planned training flights. The USMC plans to operate about 6,700 flights out of Futenma annually, which would result in a net decrease of around 2,600 airfield operations per year. <br />
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However, it has proposed 69 landing zones for use by the MV-22 on Okinawa. Fifty of these located on mainland Okinawa and the island of Iejima will be tactical landing zones used solely for training missions consisting of landings, take-offs, and approaches that simulate combat situations. <br />
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The review for the first time also mentioned USMC plans to use Ospreys in six landing zones scheduled for construction in the Okinawa's Northern Training Area. It aims to conduct 420 operations in each of those six zones for Ospreys annually for a total of 2,520. This is a 95% increase compared with the current CH-46E's 1,288 operations. <br />
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For Okinawans, the plans to deploy the Osprey at Futenma strengthen perceptions that the air base will become a permanent fixture, although local governments, supported by the majority of Okinawans, have demanded the immediate closure and transfer of Futenma outside of the prefecture. <br />
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The MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) transport aircraft was once called the "widow-maker" due to a series of accidents during its development; 36 people have died in V-22s since the plane began flying so far. Most recently two marines died in an MV-22 crash in April in Morocco. <br />
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It is this safety record that concerns Okinawa prefectural government and local residents, leading them to fiercely oppose this planned deployment. <br />
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The US has capitalized on change of US military bases on Okinawa. In the late 1990s, there were plans to just close the Futenma airbase, not to relocate it to Henoko, Nago, in northern Okinawa, after three marines raped a 12-year-old schoolgirl; but after that, the US administration managed to make the closing of Futenma a package deal linked to the building of a new sea-based heliport off Camp Schwab. <br />
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This planned heliport will have two 1,800-meter V-shaped runways. However, helicopters have no need for such long runways and this is especially true for Ospreys, which can take off and land in small spaces. <br />
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Military experts believe the US intends to create a second Kaneda Air Base off Camp Schwab just in case the original Kadena Air Base is attacked. This is said to be one of the major reasons why the Pentagon has opposed the integration of USMC Futenma air station with the Kaneda Air base. <br />
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<i><b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is</i> @TakahashiKosuke <br />
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(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.) <br />
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</tbody></table>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-22637353457142523832012-06-14T07:49:00.001-07:002012-06-14T07:49:31.292-07:00China Digital Times has picked up my story<div>
<a class="twitter-timeline-link" href="http://t.co/qw2khWWQ" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2012/06/japan-and-china-bypass-us-in-direct-currency-trade/"><span style="color: #0084b4; font-size: medium;">http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2012/06/japan-and-china-bypass-us-in-direct-currency-trade/</span></a></div>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-30443616670720672612012-06-11T02:27:00.001-07:002012-06-11T02:29:36.295-07:00(My latest for Asia Times) Osprey a new tinderbox on Okinawa<a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/NF12Dh01.html"><strong>Osprey a new tinderbox on Okinawa</strong></a><a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/NF12Dh01.html"></a><br />
Okinawan anger at the planned deployment of V-22 Ospreys to the United States' Futenma air base has been directed at both Tokyo and Washington, with islanders accusing the mainland government of "discrimination" in its failure to scale down US military operations. Claiming the tilt-rotor aircraft are accident prone and threaten densely populated Ginowan City, some Okinawans are agitating for independence. - <b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> <span style="color: #999999; font-size: xx-small;">(Jun 11, '12)</span><br />
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<strong>Osprey a new tinderbox on Okinawa</strong><br />
By Kosuke Takahashi <br />
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TOKYO - On May 23, 1988, in Arlington, Texas, Bell Helicopter unveiled with much fanfare a new combo-aircraft; a fixed-wing plane that could climb and hover like a helicopter, but also rotate its giant propellers forward and fly like an airplane. <br />
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On that day, Peter Van Sant, then correspondent for CBS Evening News with Dan Rather, reported that the never-seen-before plane was a "a revolutionary new aircraft" that was the latest "future shock". He expected the plane would carry commuters to Washington or Boston from downtown Manhattan, as it could take off and land in downtown business districts, reducing travel times. <br />
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It was called the V-22. <br />
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"By the year 2000, there could be a market of five to eight million passengers annually," a company spokesperson at Bell Helicopter predicted at the ceremony. <br />
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Twenty-four years later, the V-22 has yet to be used as a commuter aircraft between New York and Boston. Instead, across the Pacific, the Bell-Boeing MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft is becoming the next tinderbox issue on Japan's southernmost subtropical island prefecture, Okinawa. <br />
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<b>Ospreys over Futenma</b><br />
Plans to deploy 12 Osprey aircraft to US Marine Corps (USMC) Air Station Futenma in Okinawa prefecture have emerged as a fresh flashpoint between Okinawa residents and Tokyo and Washington. <br />
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How the national governments handle the islanders' sensitivities over the Osprey could prove critical for the future stability and preservation of the Japan-US alliance. <br />
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The dispute over the MV-22 erupted on June 7 when the Okinawa chapter of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) demanded that newly appointed Defense Minister Satoshi Morimoto resign over remarks related to the safety of the Osprey deployment. <br />
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The Japanese Defense Ministry had asked the US government to conduct a thorough investigation prior to the aircraft's planned deployment to Futenma, following a MV-22 crash in April in Morocco which killed two marines. However, Morimoto said at a press conference on June 5, "It would be ideal to receive all the results [from the US] on the investigations into the accident prior to the deployment, but there is a chance that might not happen." <br />
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"Does the [Japanese] government view the Okinawans as Japanese!" Chobin Zukeran, a DPJ lawmaker representing Okinawa, shouted tearfully at a press conference in Naha City on Okinawa. "Don't think Okinawans are stupid!" said Zurekan, who appeared in his shirt sleeves to emphasize his anger at the new defense minister, who was appointed on June 4. <br />
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Futenma air base is located in the heart of densely populated Ginowan City. In August 2004, a US Marines CH-53 military helicopter crashed into a university building in the city, causing no serious damage or injuries but causing a major international incident. <br />
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"Defense Minster Morimoto's remarks show nothing but contempt for Okinawans," the chapter said in an emergency statement. "There is no more room to reach a compromise between Okinawa and the Japanese government, and this should be taken as all-out confrontation. <br />
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"It is unacceptable to increase the burden borne by the people of Okinawa prefecture anymore, and this can't help but spark the public opinion that Okinawa should become independent," the statement also said. <br />
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As if in damage control, the Japanese Ministry of Defense announced on June 8 that a US investigation into the crash in Morocco had found no mechanical flaws in the MV-22. However, the ministry admitted that the investigation was ongoing and had yet to specify the crash's cause. <br />
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Although this year marks the 40th anniversary of Okinawa's reversion to Japan from US control, US military bases still occupy almost a fifth of the main Okinawa island. While Okinawa only accounts for 0.4% of Japan's land area, 74% of all US bases are concentrated there. <br />
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The US plans to deploy Ospreys to Futenma this year as part of an ongoing replacement of the USMC's ageing CH-46 Sea Knight helicopter fleet. <br />
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However, this comes amid a decade-long deadlock over plans to relocate Futenma air station to Henoko, Nago, in northern Okinawa by constructing a new sea-based replacement facility off Camp Schwab. <br />
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Local governments, supported by the majority of Okinawans, have demanded the immediate closure and transfer of Futenma outside of the prefecture, but it seems the opposite is happening. <br />
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In April, the Japanese government agreed with the US to pay refurbishment costs for the Futenma base until the sea-based replacement facility was constructed on the north of the island. But Okinawans are worried that maintenance and repair work on Futenma will mean its continued use. <br />
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For Okinawans, the plans to deploy the Osprey at Futenma strengthens perceptions that the air base will become a permanent fixture. <br />
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In an apparent attempt to ease tensions, the US and Japanese governments are reportedly considering temporarily stationing the Osprey at Iwakuni Air Base in Yamaguchi prefecture in July, and demonstrating their safety by conducting test flights there. The MV-22 would then be deployed to Futenma by mid-August, the Asahi Shimbun reported on June 9. <br />
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An alternative plan to transport the Ospreys in pieces by sea to the Naha Military Port on Okinawa as early as July, with the aircraft to be assembled there, was aborted as the Naha City Council unanimously adopted a resolution against and Naha Mayor Takeshi Onaga voiced his opposition. <br />
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"Any logic that does not understand the Okinawan mind and our history won't be accepted," Onaga said at a press conference on June 6. "Although we are requesting the easing of the burden, they are bringing about excessive burdens on us further. There is no need to consider the deployment." <br />
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According to a joint survey conducted by the Asahi Shimbun and the Okinawa Times in April ahead of the 40th anniversary of Okinawa's reversion to Japanese sovereignty, 50% of residents of Okinawa Prefecture said "discrimination by the mainland" was the reason why the scale of US military bases in the prefecture remains unchanged. <br />
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"The opinion that mainland discrimination is behind the lack of reduction of US military bases in Okinawa has spread since around 2010, when then Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama broke his promise to relocate the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma outside of the prefecture," the Asahi Shimbun concluded. <br />
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<b>The widow-maker</b><br />
The MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) transport aircraft was once called the "widow-maker" due to a series of accidents during its development. <br />
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Development of the MV-22 got off to rocky start with the deaths of 23 marines in two crashes during testing more than 12 years ago. A US Air Force version of the tilt-rotor aircraft, the special mission CV-22, crashed in Afghanistan in April 2010, killing three service members and one civilian contractor. <br />
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It is this safety record that concerns Okinawa prefectural government and local residents, leading them to fiercely oppose this planned deployment. <br />
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The Pentagon has dismissed such safety concerns. <br />
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"The MV-22 is among the safest aircraft in the Marine Corps' inventory," Captain Richard K Ulsh, USMC public affairs officer told Asia Times Online. "Including the mishap on April 11, 2012 in Morocco, since the Marine Corps resumed flight operations in October 2003, the MV-22B has demonstrated a safety record that is consistently better than USMC averages while conducting military training, humanitarian assistance missions, and combat operations in very challenging environments." <br />
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"According to Naval Safety Center records, since the Marine Corps resumed flight operations in October of 2003 through April 11 2012, the MV-22B has demonstrated a safety record that is consistently better than USMC averages," Ulsh said. <br />
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According to Ulsh, MV-22's mishap rate, determined by the number of mishaps over a period of 100,000 flight hours, is the second lowest among the five aircraft as described below. <br />
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MV-22: 1.93<br />
CH-46: 1.11<br />
CH-53E: 2.35<br />
CH-53D: 4.51<br />
AV-8B: 6.76<br />
ALL USMC: 2.45 <br />
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"The Marine Corps views the MV-22 as a highly capable, reliable and safe aircraft," Ulsh said. <br />
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Latent anti-US base sentiment is likely to rise in coming months as local elections approach. Naha's mayoral election is scheduled for November, and there is speculation that low approval ratings for Yoshihiko Noda's government, currently sitting at just around 20%, could soon spur a general election. <br />
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Major political parties and prefectural chapters in Okinawa are highly likely to use the votes to campaign for the relocation of the Futenma facility outside of the prefecture as well as a halt to the V-22 deployment. <br />
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"It was unavoidable that the deployment of Osprey would become a source of friction and conflict," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online. "Without the accident in Morocco, the situation would have been better. Okinawans vividly remember the crash of the crash of a marine helicopter into Okinawa International University. The US and Japanese governments will now be forced to delay the deployment later than originally scheduled. A cooling off period is needed." <br />
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<i><b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is </i>@TakahashiKosuke <br />
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(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-19358957569393675642012-06-06T02:02:00.001-07:002012-06-06T02:02:46.246-07:00(My latest for Asia Times) Noda future hangs on a tax thread<a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/NF07Dh01.html#.T88b3yM1VMM.blogger"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Asia Times Online :: Noda future hangs on a tax thread</span></a><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Hello, my friends. Here is my latest story. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US"></span><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/NF07Dh01.html"><span style="color: mediumblue;">Noda future hangs on a tax thread</span></a></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "MS 明朝","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong><span style="font-family: "MS 明朝","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;"></span></strong></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, in office only since last September, has staked his political future on pushing through legislation for an increase in consumption tax before the present parliamentary session ends on June 21. With the economy in a parlous state, that is unlikely - and the country's revolving door of short-term premiers looks set to turn once more. <br />
- <b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #999999;">(Jun 6, '12)</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #999999;"><o:p><span style="color: black;"><strong>Noda future hangs on a tax thread</strong>By Kosuke Takahashi <br />
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TOKYO - With Japan's economy remaining sluggish after two decades of prolonged deflation, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is scrambling to pass bills to raise the consumption tax before the current parliament session ends on June 21. <br />
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While stressing in many occasions that "without a tax increase, Japan would go fiscally bankrupt like Greece", Noda has publicly vowed to stake his ''political life'' on the tax hike plan and now faces the possible end of his premiership. He is attempting to raise the consumption tax rate from the present 5% to 8% in April 2014 and to 10% in October 2015. <br />
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The nation is still struggling to recover from damages wrought by the triple disaster of a devastating mega-earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown in March 2011 and the debate about the tax increase could sap still-fragile consumer spending and business confidence. That could send the nation into a vicious deflationary spiral, in which falling prices and wages lead to rising unemployment. <br />
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The uncertainty created by the continuing global financial crisis is also casting a pall over the export-driven Japanese economy. Facing such heightened risks, Noda's rush to force through significant tax increases is questionable <br />
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"He has been subject to the mind control of the Ministry of Finance [MOF]," Toichiro Asada, a professor of macroeconomics at Chuo University in Tokyo, told Asia Times Online. "The MOF attempts to secure its vested interests through tax increases. <br />
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"The consumption tax hike amid a deflationary depression, however, would further shrink GDP [gross domestic product] and facilitate Japan dropping out of the club of economically developed nations," Asada said. "A wrong policy brings about disastrous outcomes." <br />
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Noda became prime minister last September after serving as a senior vice finance minister and finance minister for a total of two years. The MOF became his first ministerial portfolio, and he had been fully immersed in the ministry's policies, functions, ideas, guidelines and wishes. <br />
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The MOF, in return, catered to the wants and needs of a dutiful minister Noda, known as a fiscal hawk. It is said among the Japanese political cycles that the MOF unofficially supported Noda, rather than his rival Seiji Maehara, in the ruling Democratic Party of Japan's presidential election last September. <br />
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"The Noda administration is a puppet government of the MOF," political analyst Minoru Morita told Asia Times Online. "It's a stupid thing to raise the consumption tax at a time when the nation is in a deflationary situation and when people are worrying about a global depression." <br />
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<b>Fiscal crisis of the state?</b><br />
The MOF has announced that the accumulative long-term national and local debts of Japan will reach 196% of GDP by March 2013 (the end of Japan's fiscal year), the worst among developed countries. Moreover, Japan's reliance on debt in its initial budget for fiscal 2012 hit a new high of 49%. <br />
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Thus, the MOF is very reluctant to issue new government bonds and is keen to secure financial resources through an increase in the consumption tax to help cover the nation's swelling social security costs as the population ages and fewer babies are born. <br />
<br />
Experts such as Asada have pointed out that the MOF is taking advantage of the Greek debt crisis and last year's triple disaster in eastern Japan, trumpeting that "for Japan, the euro-zone crisis is not a fire on the other side of the river" and that "restoration from the great earthquake disaster requires tax hikes". <br />
<br />
But in fact, the MOF itself has admitted that economic crises overseas are totally different from the situation in Japan in the past. For example, in May 2002, Moody's downgraded Japan's long-term credit rating to A2. Around that time, the MOF made rebuttal statements against three rating agencies, namely, Moody's, Standard & Poor's, and Fitch. <br />
<br />
It told them, "In the case of industrialized countries such as the US and Japan, defaulting on local-currency denominated debt is unimaginable. What kind of risk is exactly contemplated as 'default'?" <br />
<br />
The MOF also pointed out that Japan has the largest savings surplus in the world, and that this surplus enables the nation to finance most of the debt domestically and stably at very low interest rates. In addition, the nation had the largest current account surplus, that it is the largest creditor country, and that it had the world's largest foreign exchange reserves. <br />
<br />
Although China has since then past Japan as the world's largest holder of foreign exchange reserves, the rest of conditions remain. Currently, 94% of Japanese government bond is funded domestically at low interest rates. <br />
<br />
"The MOF had done double-dealing," Asada said. "While prompting fears of a public-finance crisis domestically, it has denied the nation is in a financial crisis externally. This is a double standard." <br />
<br />
<b>A rapid increase in suicides again?</b><br />
An increase in the consumption tax to 5% from 3% in 1997 may have been responsible for pushing many people to suicide. The following year, 1998, suicide rates in Japan jumped by 35% to 32,863 from 24,391 in the previous 12 months. Some experts say this increase was due to increased taxes, while others say it correlates with economic troubles and a rise in unemployment triggered by currency devaluations in Asia in the middle of 1997. <br />
<br />
Many Japanese are still mired in a deep socioeconomic malaise in the wake of last year's natural and nuclear disasters. The number of suicides could jump again following a consumption tax hike in coming years. <br />
<br />
Noda reshuffled his cabinet on June 4, sacking two ministers including the defense minister, whom opposition parties had demanded he replace. Noda was apparently seeking the cooperation of the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party in enacting a law for a consumption tax increase - the opposition bloc controls the House of Councillors, the upper house of parliament. <br />
<br />
"Noda will fail to pass the sales tax hike-related bills in the current parliament session, and his administration will collapse sooner or later," political analyst Morita said. "Many politicians in both ruling and opposition parties hesitate to pass the tax legislation within this parliamentary session." <br />
<br />
Noda's decision to push for a tax increase while the economy is so sluggish is bad timing, certainly in the eyes of voters. Only 17% of respondents to an Asahi Shumbun survey think bills related to a sales tax rise should be passed in the current parliament session, against 72% who said there is no need to pass the bills this session. <br />
<br />
And if failure to pass the tax legislation leads to Noda's resignation, Japan's political chaos amid a familiar landscape will continue, according to Morita, not least the regularity with which Japan's prime ministers come and go from office. <br />
<br />
"Whoever becomes the next prime minister, the next government will become a caretaker government until a general election," Morita said. "Japan's revolving door of prime ministers who keep resigning after very short tenures is likely to continue." <br />
<br />
<i><b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. His twitter i</i>s @TakahashiKosuke <br />
<br />
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.) </span></o:p><span style="color: black;"></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;"><div class=" fb_reset" id="fb-root"><div style="height: 0px; position: absolute; top: -10000px; width: 0px;"> <div><iframe id="fb_xdm_frame_http" name="fb_xdm_frame_http" src="http://static.ak.facebook.com/connect/xd_arbiter.php?version=6#channel=f2141061a58d624&origin=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atimes.com&channel_path=%2Fatimes%2FJapan%2FNF07Dh01.html%3Ffb_xd_fragment%23xd_sig%3Df572b7ade3f5b%26&transport=postmessage"></iframe><iframe id="fb_xdm_frame_https" name="fb_xdm_frame_https" src="https://s-static.ak.facebook.com/connect/xd_arbiter.php?version=6#channel=f2141061a58d624&origin=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atimes.com&channel_path=%2Fatimes%2FJapan%2FNF07Dh01.html%3Ffb_xd_fragment%23xd_sig%3Df572b7ade3f5b%26&transport=postmessage"></iframe></div><div></div></div></div></span><div class=" fb_reset" id="fb-root"></div></span><div class=" fb_reset" id="fb-root"></div>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-4670940562406504182012-06-01T02:22:00.001-07:002012-06-04T05:54:58.183-07:00Asia Times Online : Japan, China bypass US in currency trade<a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/NF02Dh01.html#.T8iJyKDyvsk.blogger"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Asia Times Online :: Japan, China bypass US in currency trade</span></a><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Japan and China on Friday started direct trading between the yen and the yuan in Tokyo and Shanghai, by-passing the need first to exchange either currency into the US dollar. The move should strengthen bilateral trade between the two economies while marking an important step in the internationalization of the yuan. - <b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #999999; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">(Jun 1, '12)</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #999999; font-family: Arial;"><span style="color: black;"><strong>Japan, China bypass US in currency
trade</strong>By Kosuke Takahashi <br /><br />TOKYO - Japan and China
started direct trading of their currencies, the yen and the yuan, on the
inter-bank foreign exchange markets in Tokyo and Shanghai on Friday in an
apparent bid to strengthen bilateral trade and investment between the world's
second- and third-largest economies. <br /><br />Direct yen-yuan trades also aim to
hedge the risk of the dollar's fall in the long run as the world's key
settlement currency and as the main reserve currency in Asia, the world's
economic growth center in the 21st century. By skipping the dollar in
transactions, the region's two biggest economies intend to reduce their
dependence on dollar risk and US monetary authorities' influence on the Asian
economy - aiding China's goal of undercutting US influence in the region.
<br /><br />It is the first time that China has allowed a major currency other than the dollar to directly trade with the yuan. For Beijing, this new step
brings benefits of further internationalization of the yuan. For Tokyo, the
possible future correction of China's still artificially undervalued yuan may
bring the plus of a weaker yen, boosting profits of Japanese exporters such as
Toyota and Sony in the long run. <br /><br />Japan's three megabanks - Mitsubishi
UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group and Mizuho Financial Group
- began direct yen-yuan trades with major Chinese banks on Friday. Exchange
rates between the yen and the yuan will be determined by their transactions,
delinking the current "cross rate" system in which the US dollar intermediates
in setting yen-yuan rates. <br /><br />"We can lower transaction costs and reduce
settlement risks at financial institutions as well as making both nations'
currencies more useful and energizing the Tokyo market," Japan's Finance
Minister Jun Azumi said on May 29. <br /><br />China welcomed the new trading
agreement with much fanfare. <br /><br />"This will help lower currency conversion
costs for economic entities, facilitate the use of RMB [the renminbi, as the
Chinese currency is also referred to] and Japanese yen in bilateral trade and
investment, promote financial cooperation and enhance economic and financial
ties between the two countries," the People's Bank of China (central bank) said
in a statement. <br /><br /><b>Skipping the dollar</b><br />Up until Friday, Japanese
and Chinese firms had paid currency conversion fees twice. For Japanese
companies, they first had to convert the yen into the dollar, then they
exchanged the dollar for the Chinese currency. For Chinese firms, it was vice
versa. With this removal of the interim step by skipping the dollar in
transactions, many expect cost reductions. <br /><br />Japan ranks fourth among
China's trading partners after the European Union, the United States and the
10-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), while China has been
Japan's largest trading partner for the past three years. <br /><br />Bilateral
trade rose 14.3% year-on-year to reach US$344.9 billion in 2011. For Japan,
China accounts for about 20% of its world trade value. Around 50% to 60% of that
is being settled in dollars, with less than 1% of it settled in yuan. One
Chinese news outlet has estimated direct yen-yuan transactions will realize $3
billion in cost savings. <br /><br />There are still cautious views on the scale of
cost reductions among Japanese market participants. <br /><br />"Dollar-yen
transaction costs are already very low," Daisuke Karakama, market economist at
Mizuho Corporate Bank in Tokyo, said on Thursday. "The cost reduction effect of
direct yen-yuan trading should be limited." <br /><br /><b>Internationalization of
the yuan</b><br />For China, this new trading is a step in its moves to
internationalize the yuan, accelerating the currency's wider use. More than 9%
of China's total trade was settled in yuan last year, up from only 0.7% in 2010,
according to Xinhuanet. <br /><br />Yuan-denominated trade between the mainland
China and Hong Kong started in July 2009, as Beijing allowed companies in
Shanghai and four cities in the southern province of Guangdong to use yuan in
trade with Hong Kong, Macau and members of ASEAN. In July 2010, China also
allowed the yuan to be more freely traded and transferred in Hong Kong,
establishing an offshore yuan market for the first time. <br /><br />But many
experts such as Mizuho's Karakama believe China will soon face a trilemma in its
economic policy. <br /><br />An economy cannot combine at the same time a
non-floating dollar peg currency, free capital mobility and autonomy in its
monetary policy. Developed nations such as Japan and South Korea abandoned a
dollar peg system in order to secure international inflows of money and
discretionary monetary policies. (In contrast, countries using the euro
abandoned individual monetary policy by consolidating their financial policy
instruments to the European Central Bank.) <br /><br />In April, the People's Bank
of China announced it would widen the yuan's daily trading limit against the
dollar to 1% from 0.5%. <br /><br />"With the internationalization of the yuan, it
will become more and more difficult for China to control the yuan," Karakama
said. <br /><br />Should China shift to a limited floating exchange rate system, the
yuan will likely appreciate against major currencies such as the dollar. With
Japan's business with China expanding and the presence of the yuan increasing in
Japan's international trade, this will push down the yen's effective exchange
rate against major currencies. Annual trade between China and Japan more than
doubled in the past 10 years. <br /><br /><i><b>Kosuke Takahashi </b>is a
Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke</i>
<br /><br />(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
</span></span>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-27547152012231574422012-05-30T02:37:00.001-07:002012-05-30T09:15:06.466-07:00My latest for Asia Times : Pyongyang starts to feel the heat<a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/NE31Dg01.html"><strong>Pyongyang starts to feel the heat</strong></a><a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/NE31Dg01.html"></a> <br />
North Korea, facing its worst drought for half a century after little rainfall for more than 40 days, may soon have to appeal for help from China and international organizations such as the World Food Programme. A rare admission of vulnerability last week signals probable delay in Pyongyang's third nuclear test. Having blown a barter deal with the United States, it has little choice but to comply with Beijing's wishes. - <b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> <span style="color: #999999; font-size: xx-small;">(May 30, '12)</span><br />
<br />
<strong>Pyongyang starts to feel the heat</strong> <br />
By Kosuke Takahashi <br />
<br />
TOKYO - North Korea, in a rare admission of vulnerability, late last week announced to the outside world that it is suffering the most severe drought in half a century and that its vast agricultural lands have been damaged. <br />
<br />
If the drought persists, the subsequent crop failure could exacerbate already dire food shortages in the hunger-stricken nation. This will test the leadership capabilities of North Korea's young dictator Kim Jong-eun, whose new government has placed a high priority on the food problem as "a burning issue in building a thriving country". <br />
<br />
Ordinary North Koreans may be raising fears that the impending natural disaster will cause something similar to the "great famine" of the 1990s. This comes at a critical time, with power only recently having been transferred to Kim Jong-eun following the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, last December. <br />
<br />
During the famine in the 1990s, called the "arduous march", millions of people died of starvation, as Kim Jong-il succeeded his father Kim il-sung, the founder of the nation, in 1994. The official propaganda "arduous march" was also used amid Kim Il-sung's guerrilla resistance to Japanese occupation in the late 1930s. <br />
<br />
"North Korea began to disclose bad things through a change in leadership," Mitsuhiro Mimura, director and senior research fellow at the Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia in Niigata prefecture, told Asia Times Online. "The happening of the natural disaster has no blame attached to Kim Jong-eun and is easy to disclose. By stressing substantial damages, Pyongyang is appealing for food aid to the rest of the world." Mimura specializes in the North Korean economy. <br />
<br />
"West coastal areas of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea [DPRK] experience a long spell of dry weather," the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said on May 25. "This is an abnormal phenomenon witnessed in the country in 50 years." <br />
<br />
If it doesn't rain by the end of the month, the drought will be recorded as the worst since 1962, the news agency said. <br />
<br />
The drought has hit North Korea's southwestern rice belt, such as South Hwanghae province known as the "bread-basket" of the hermit kingdom. Except for east coastal areas and northern high-mountain regions, there has been little rainfall in the country for more than 40 days, affecting 40% of farmland, the news agency said, adding that in Pyongyang just 2 millimeters of rainfall was registered in the past 30 days. <br />
<br />
During the infamous famine of the 1990s in the wake of a vicious circle of devastating floods and the subsequent drought, the northern regions of the country were said to be much better off than the south, in part because of the geographical closeness to China. People in the north could barter for food with China, while those in the south were geographically isolated. This pattern could happen again. <br />
<br />
It is not uncommon for the Korean Peninsula to suffer severe droughts historically. For example, during the Joseon Dynasty (1392-1910), droughts that continued for more than two years occurred 23 times, according to the Korea Institute of Construction Technology, a public research institute based in South Korea. <br />
<br />
Most notably, about a million people, nearly 20% of the population, starved to death during the drought-induced famine of 1671, the institute said. <br />
<br />
"The drought has badly affected the transplant of corn seedbeds and rice planting," North Korea's official daily newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, said on May 25. "Wheat, barley and potato fields have been damaged." <br />
<br />
Still, more than a few experts have pointed out that the drought may not have a major impact on rice yields because rice planting is not in full swing. <br />
<br />
"There are still one or two months left before a rice-planting season in North Korea," Masao Okonogi, a research professor at the Research Center for Korean Studies of Kyushu University in Fukuoka City, said. "The incoming amount of precipitation is a key." <br />
<br />
Looking anew at the world, <i>La Nina</i> in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru seems to have caused abnormal weather conditions worldwide, let alone North Korea. South American nations such as Brazil and Argentine are also suffering droughts, skyrocketing soybean futures prices in Chicago. In northeastern Brazil, severe drought - also the worst in 50 years - has even triggered fighting in rural areas <br />
<br />
Water is life. An average of one person a day is being killed in "water wars", while scores of animals led to debilitation and death, the Brazilian newspaper O Globo has reported. Even in Tokyo, an abrupt weather change due to atmospheric instability is frequently occurring in recent weeks, alternating between thunder showers and clear sky. <br />
<br />
There are expectations that North Korea will officially ask for help from China and international organizations such as the World Food Programme if the drought continues, and this would make it difficult for Pyongyang to carry out a third nuclear test in the coming months - to meet Beijing's wishes. <br />
<br />
Food relief, however, is unlikely to come from the US and South Korea following Pyongyang's internationally-condemned rocket launch on April 13. The US suspended a plan to deliver 240,000 tons of food as the two nations' "Leap Day deal" bartering food aid for nuclear concessions came apart. <br />
<br />
Still, Pyongyang seems to welcome continuing bilateral negotiations with the US. <br />
<br />
"The DPRK will never need even a single nuke when the US renouncement of its hostility towards it is confidently verified and its nuclear threat is completely defused," KCNA said on May 27. "This tells that the master key to the settlement of the above-said nuclear issue is in the hands of the US." <br />
<br />
"The US would be well advised to behave in a responsible manner, bearing in mind that the prospect for the solution to the nuclear issue hinges on its attitude," it concluded. <br />
<br />
"Pyongyang will conduct a third nuclear test once its negotiations with the US are completely cut off," Mimura said. <br />
<br />
Okonogi echoed Mimura's views. "Kim Jong-eun needs to consolidate the foundation of his new-fledged regime. For him, all-out confrontation with the US in the wake of a third nuclear test cannot be a good choice now." <br />
<br />
Both Mimura and Okonogi denied the view that severe food shortages would lead Pyongyang to adopt a hard-line foreign policy to divert people from dissatisfaction. <br />
<br />
<i><b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke </i><br />
<br />
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-31048817199217841902012-05-25T07:30:00.001-07:002012-05-25T07:30:06.881-07:00(My latest for Asia Times) South Korea makes waves with China pacts<a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/NE26Dh01.html"><strong>South Korea makes waves with China
pacts</strong></a><a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/NE26Dh01.html"></a><br />A revelation that South Korea is forging military pacts
with China days after ditching a deal with former colonial ruler Japan smacks
more of an attempt to dodge political flak than to play a balancer's role in
relations as North Korea provokes alarm. A deal with China, though it stands
slim chance of success over Pyongyang's objections, also looks like a snub to
American designs. - <strong>Kosuke Takahashi</strong> <span style="color: #999999; font-size: xx-small;">(May 25,
'12)</span><br />
<br />
<strong>South Korea makes waves with China
pacts</strong>By Kosuke Takahashi<br />
<br />TOKYO - Alarmed at North
Korea's unstoppable nuclear and missile development programs, South Korea, Japan
and the United States seem to have elevated trilateral security cooperation.<br />
<br />But that's only on the surface. Just like ducks that appear calm above
the water but are paddling furiously, relations between the three countries on
the subject of how to handle China and North Korea are generating a lot of
unseen turbulence. <br />
<br />Earlier this week, South Korea abruptly announced it
was negotiating a military agreement with China, a fierce enemy during the
1950-1953 Korean War and North Korea's long-time ally. What surprised the media
was the fact this move came just days after Seoul suspended the signing of a similar military pact with Tokyo.
<br />
<br />Is Seoul just trying to get closer to its largest trade partner China?
Or by shifting its axis of cooperation from Tokyo to Beijing, is it aiming to
play a "balancer's role" between Japan and China, a position that former South
Korean president Roh Moo-hyun used to advocate?<br />
<br />"South Korea's left-wing
opposition parties and groups have been attacking the Lee Myung-bak
administration on forging military pacts with the former colonial ruler Japan so
far," Hideshi Takesada, a professor at Yonsei University of South Korea, told
Asia Times Online. "So by bringing up the subject of a military pact with China,
it wants to say 'Hey, we are not negotiating only with Japan, but also with many
nations such as China.' It tries to dodge a public backlash that military pacts
with Japan have caused." <br />
<br />Takesada pointed out that Lee had already
become a lame duck ahead of the presidential election in December and that he
was losing his centripetal force, thus pandering to populist policy measures.<br />
<br />Takesada, a former executive director of the National Institute for
Defense Studies in Tokyo, the Japanese Ministry of Defense's think-tank, sees
almost no chance that Seoul could make a military deal with China because this
would provoke a fierce backlash from Pyongyang. <br />
<br />"From South Korea's
perspective, such an attempt is to defuse China's concerns that the increased
military cooperation with Japan might work as a containment against China," said
Hyon Jooyoo, an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at
Trinity University in San Antonio of Texas. "It seems to me that South Korea
tries to find a middle ground between Japan and China by forming a similar
contract with Beijing."<br />
<br />"Increasing military cooperation with Japan is
significant to Seoul but South Korea should not make it antagonize China," Hyon
said while visiting Keio University in Tokyo on Wednesday. <br />
<br />South Korea
and Japan have reached the final stages of talks on two agreements: an
Acquisition and Cross Servicing Agreement (ACSA) and general security of
Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA). The ACSA would allow exchange of fuel
supplies or vehicles during United Nations peacekeeping or disaster relief
operations. The GSOMIA would establish a bilateral exchange of sensitive
military information such as that regarding North Korea's weapons of mass
destruction, including its nuclear program. <br />
<br />Military experts say that
South Korea's military pacts with China, even if realized, would rank a notch
lower than its military accords with Japan, as they may limit the scope of
cooperation between Seoul and Beijing.<br />
<br />In China's rise, Seoul is
beginning to see more economic and diplomatic opportunities than military
threats. <br />
<br />"Thinking about North Korea, China is very, very important for
Seoul," a senior South Korean diplomat told Asia Times Online. <br />
<br />For
left-leaning political elites in Seoul, China is a key partner to form a bridge
between them and Pyongyang. On the other hand, for conservative South Korean
leaders, China is a strategic collaborator to pre-empt North Korea's military
and diplomatic provocations. <br />
<br /><b>Discord between the US and South
Korea</b> <br />
It's true that tightening bilateral security ties with Tokyo is a very
sensitive topic given latent anti-Japanese sentiment among South Koreans
regarding the 1910-1945 colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula. But it is the US,
which has urged Japan and South Korea, its strongest allies in the Asia-Pacific
region, to create unprecedented military pacts for sharing information and
equipment. <br />
<br />In December 2010, Mike Mullen, serving as the chairman of the
US Joint Chiefs of Staff, stressed the significance of trilateral cooperation
between the US, Japan and South Korea at a press conference in Tokyo. Mullen
said North Korea's shelling of a South Korean island a few weeks early, which
killed two troops and two civilians, had created a "real sense of urgency".
<br />
<br />Even so, South Korea has not fully met the US request. Instead, why is
it seeking a military agreement with China, especially when Washington seems to
have formed the US-led alliance of encirclement against Beijing, involving
Japan, Australia and the Philippines? <br />
<br />Yonsei University's Takesada said
that a recent visit by US officials to Pyongyang, without letting Seoul know of
it, may have hurt South Korean officials' feelings.<br />
<br />According to South
Korea's Chosun Ilbo newspaper, a US Air Force Boeing 737 flew from Guam to
Pyongyang with the officials on April 7, six days before North Korea's April 13
long-range rocket launch in an apparent bid to halt the test. <br />
<br />The
newspaper said the aircraft passed through South Korean airspace and might have
been carrying Sydney Seiler, a National Security Council adviser to President
Barack Obama, and Joseph DeTrani, director of the National Counter-Proliferation
Center. <br />
<br />The US government did not notify South Korea's military air
traffic controllers of the flight. As a result, the controllers initially had
trouble identifying the aircraft and eventually found it was heading to the
North, according to a report last week by Reset KBS, an online broadcasting
channel. <br />
<br />"Seoul should have got indignant at the US, as it felt a loss
of face because of this secret deal between the US and North Korea," Takesada
said. <br />
<br />US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland on May 22 did not
deny the news report, saying "we don't have any comment on that report at all".
<br />
<br />A report from Pyongyang on the same day was more bothersome to the State
Department. <br />
<br />North Korea's Rondog Sinmun reported, "Several weeks ago, we
informed the US side of the fact that we are restraining ourselves in real
actions though we are no longer bound to the February 29 DPRK-[Democratic
People's Republic of Korea]-US agreement, taking the concerns voiced by the US
into consideration for the purpose of ensuring the peace and stability of the
Korean Peninsula necessary for focusing every effort on the peaceful
development." <br />
<br />"From the beginning, we did not envisage such a military
measure as a nuclear test as we planned to launch a scientific and technical
satellite for peaceful purposes," it said.<br />
<br />If North Korea's claim is
true, the US has not publicized this fact at all, just stressing North Korea's
provocations by violating UN resolutions in the past few months. <br />
<br />There
is a possibility that the Obama administration will go for unilateralism to seek
a rare foreign policy success concerning North Korea in its final months in
office before the US presidential election in November. This would undoubtedly
give South Korea and Japan the chills. <br />
<br /><i><b>Kosuke Takahashi </b>is a
Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke
</i><br />
<br />(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights
reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.) <br />Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-51906623882295406712012-05-21T06:21:00.001-07:002012-05-25T07:54:55.212-07:00I recommend you to go over the following articles on Okinawa<span style="font-family: inherit;">Thank you so much for your comments. I always welcome any of your feedback. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">To better understand the situation facing Okinawans, I recommend you to go over the following articles. </span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">On Okinawa, Trouble at Home Base</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">By Kosuke Takahashi</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/FI09Dh05.html" rel="nofollow"><span style="font-family: inherit;">http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/FI09Dh05.html</span></a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Marines on Okinawa: Time to Leave?</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">By Kirk Spitzer</span></div>
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<a href="http://battleland.blogs.time.com/2012/01/13/marines-on-okinawa-time-to-leave/" rel="nofollow"><span style="font-family: inherit;">http://battleland.blogs.time.com/2012/01/13/marines-on-okinawa-time-to-leave/</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Give Okinawa Back To The Okinawans</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">By </span><a href="http://blogs.forbes.com/dougbandow/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0066cc; font-family: inherit;">Doug Bandow</span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="desc">, Contributor</span> </span></div>
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<a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougbandow/2012/01/23/give-okinawa-back-to-the-okinawans/"><span style="font-family: inherit;">http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougbandow/2012/01/23/give-okinawa-back-to-the-okinawans/</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The Okinawa Solution</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">By Carlton Meyer</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.g2mil.com/okinawa-solution.htm"><span style="font-family: inherit;">http://www.g2mil.com/okinawa-solution.htm</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Misunderstandings on the US Military Bases in Okinawa</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">By Yukie Yoshikawa</span></div>
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<a href="http://newpacificinstitute.org/jsw/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/pac1224A.pdf"><span style="font-family: inherit;">http://newpacificinstitute.org/jsw/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/pac1224A.pdf</span></a></div>
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</div>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-33311365478401605392012-05-21T05:52:00.000-07:002012-05-21T05:52:16.642-07:00(My first and latest story for The Diplomat)<h1 class="post-title">
<a href="http://the-diplomat.com/2012/05/18/japan%e2%80%99s-persistent-%e2%80%9cameriphobia%e2%80%9d/" title="Japan’s Persistent “Ameriphobia”">Japan’s Persistent “Ameriphobia”</a></h1>
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<a class="tag region" href="http://the-diplomat.com/east-asia">East Asia</a> | <a class="tag topic" href="http://the-diplomat.com/security">Security</a> | <a class="tag country" href="http://the-diplomat.com/?s=japan">Japan</a></div>
<span class="datetime">May 18, 2012</span><span class="post-author">By Kosuke Takahashi</span></div>
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<img alt="" class="attachment-124x82 wp-post-image" height="82" src="http://the-diplomat.com/files/2012/05/Okinawa-124x82.jpg" title="Japan’s Persistent “Ameriphobia”" width="124" /><h3 class="post-excerpt">
Japan has long been a key part of the U.S. Pacific strategy. But for many Okinawans, the military “occupation” has gone on too long.</h3>
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Earlier this week, Okinawa Prefecture marked the 40th anniversary of its reversion to Japanese sovereignty following U.S. occupation. Yet four decades on, and the future of Japan’s southernmost prefecture remains uncertain, with slow progress on key issues. For Okinawans, the harsh reality is that they are <a href="http://the-diplomat.com/2010/06/11/why-us-may-torpedo-japan-pm/" target="_blank">still living on occupied territory</a>.<br />
Despite the 1972 transfer, U.S. military bases still occupy almost a fifth of the main Okinawa island, while 75 percent of all U.S. bases in Japan are concentrated in Okinawa.<br />
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For the central government and the U.S. at least, progress seemed to have been made last month on the question of the future of U.S. forces in Japan. Under a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/27/usa-japan-okinawa-idUSL2E8FR0D920120427" target="_blank">new agreement</a>, the U.S. and Japanese governments decided to stick to an existing plan to relocate the controversial U.S. Marine Corps Air Station in Futenma to Henoko, Nago, in northern Okinawa by constructing a new sea-based replacement facility off Camp Schwab.<br />
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But the deal, which includes the transfer of about 9,000 troops and their dependents to U.S. Pacific territory of Guam, has left many Okinawans cold.For a start the United States is <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-05/11/c_131581909.htm" target="_blank">reportedly planning to deploy the MV-22 Osprey</a> vertical take-off and landing transport aircraft to Futenma, in what is an already built-up area, in July. In addition to longstanding concerns over crime, locals also point to concerns over safety and noise pollution from aircraft. Such concerns have only been compounded by a series of accidents involving the Osprey during its development. Indeed, only last month, a Marine Corps MV-22 Osprey <a href="http://defense.aol.com/2012/04/11/osprey-crashes-in-morocco-two-killed/" target="_blank">crashed in Morocco</a>, sparking further safety concerns.<br />
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Today’s problems are rooted in a deal reached during the U.S. occupation following Japan’s defeat in World War II, when Emperor Hirohito suggested to U.S. Gen. Douglas MacArthur, then the post-surrender potentate in Tokyo and protector of the Japanese monarchy, that the U.S. continue occupying Okinawa and other islands in the Ryukyu chain in exchange for keeping the imperial system intact.<br />
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MacArthur saw limited Japanese opposition to the U.S. retaining Okinawa because “the Okinawans are not Japanese.” Hirohito's Okinawa message, and MacArthur's willingness to retain Okinawa, underscored the reality that the islands were being sacrificed for the purpose of defending the traditional national polity.<br />
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But since Hirohito’s death in 1989, his thinking on Okinawa has remained deeply embedded in the minds of mainstream conservative political elites, bureaucrats and politicians in Tokyo, including in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which is often criticized as being subservient to U.S. diplomacy.<br />
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Although they will never admit it openly, Japan’s elites have “Ameriphobia” – a fear of the United States – that’s rooted in the devastation of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This fear was on display even after almost six decades of Liberal Democratic Party rule was broken in 2009, when the government of Democratic Party of Japan Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama was <a href="http://the-diplomat.com/tokyo-notes/2010/06/02/hatoyama-resigns/" target="_blank">toppled in June 2010</a> in part over his mishandling of the U.S. Futenma Air Station issue in Okinawa. Hatoyama’s failure to renegotiate the relocation with the United States due to strong opposition from the nation’s conservatives, as well as the Obama administration, created a damaging and ultimately devastating political impasse for the Japanese government.<br />
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Against this backdrop, and taking advantage of Tokyo’s traditionally weak-kneed approach, the U.S. government has consistently asked Japan to increase the share of the security burden that it carries. Last month, for example, while the two governments said the total cost of relocating marines and their dependents from Okinawa to Guam <a href="http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/okinawa/cost-to-relocate-marines-off-okinawa-a-moving-target-1.177261" target="_blank">would be lowered to $8.6 billion</a> from the original $10.27 billion, the cost to Japan was to rise from a maximum of $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion.<br />
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Still, while the central government may be averse to standing up to the United States, Okinawans have traditionally had fewer qualms about doing so. And ultimately, time may well be on the side of Okinawans.<br />
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For a start, with both the U.S. and Japan facing significant budget deficits, it’s becoming increasingly hard to sustain the security alliance at its current levels. The United States may well, whether it likes it or not, be forced to reduce its military footprint in Japan, particularly in Okinawa.<br />
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Meanwhile, for Japan – whose finances are the weakest among the world’s major economies, with government debt reaching 230 percent of gross domestic product – the growing burden of realignment of U.S. forces is becoming a major problem. This has only been compounded by the enormous costs of recovering from last year’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear incident.<br />
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But there’s another reason why the U.S. may rethink its presence in Japan: China’s <a href="http://the-diplomat.com/china-power/2010/12/28/chinas-military-surprises/" target="_blank">growing military might</a>. Tackling China’s rise is the biggest common interest between the United States and Japan, and China’s growing naval power, and its enhanced strike capabilities, is helping reshape the security dynamic in the region. This has prompted the United States to shift its security focus to expanding its presence in Australia, the Philippines and Singapore. The Pentagon is wary of China’s <a href="http://the-diplomat.com/2012/03/09/u-s-confronts-an-anti-access-world/" target="_blank">anti-access/area denial strategy</a>, and may be keen to shift U.S. Marines currently stationed on Okinawa to regions more out of reach of China’s missile strikes.<br />
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In addition, support for an “offshore balancing” strategy is gaining support in Washington, a strategy that would likely see a reduction of U.S. troops in Japan. Such a shift would force Japan to do more itself to counter China, driving a further political wedge between Tokyo and Beijing and in the process scuppering any prospects for the establishment of an East Asian Community or the like – an initiative proposed by Hatoyama, but which the United States has indicated it is opposed to.<br />
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Aside from the Communist Party and its supporters, few doubt that the United States is Japan’s most important ally, and that the U.S.-Japan alliance is the cornerstone of peace, security and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. Resolving the problems over U.S. military bases on Okinawa as quickly as possible would therefore contribute to enhancing the security partnership between the two countries.<br />
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The withdrawal of additional U.S. forces from Japan would bring challenges, for sure. But for Okinawans, at least, the time seems to have come for U.S. Marine Corps to leave their islands.<br />
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<em>Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist. His work has appeared in the Asahi Shimbun, Bloomberg, Asia Times and Jane's Defence Weekly, among other publications. You can follow him on Twitter @TakahashiKosuke.</em></div>
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For inquiries, please contact The Diplomat at <a href="mailto:info@the-diplomat.com">info@the-diplomat.com</a></div>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-74584015292753376772012-05-21T05:46:00.001-07:002012-05-21T05:46:55.999-07:00Asia Times Online :: Japan News and Japanese Business and Economy<a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/NE22Dh01.html"><strong>Cold comfort for Japan-South Korea ties</strong></a><a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/NE22Dh01.html"></a> <br />
The intractable issue of compensation for women forced into sexual slavery during Japan's World War II occupation of South Korea looks likely to undermine the US-led united front against China's naval expansion and North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Stirred in part by nationalist pressure in the run-up to presidential elections in the South, the gap between the two sides' perceptions on the sensitive issue remains as wide as it ever was.<br />
- <b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> <span style="color: #999999; font-size: xx-small;">(May 21, '12)</span><br />
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<strong>Cold comfort for Japan-South Korea ties </strong>By Kosuke Takahashi <br />
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TOKYO - Sixty-seven years after the end of World War II, history is once again beginning to produce heightened diplomatic tensions between Japan and South Korea. <br />
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The thorny question of whether or not the Japanese government should meet South Korea's renewed demand that Tokyo pay compensation to "comfort women" forced into sexual slavery for the Japanese military during World War II, accompanied by an official apology, is likely to show no sign of settlement. Escalating tensions between Tokyo and Seoul could harm the US-led united front against China's naval expansion and North Korea's nuclear and missile ambitions in coming months, especially before the South Korean presidential election is held in December amid rising domestic nationalist pressure. <br />
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"Regarding comfort women, there is a wide perception gap between Japan and South Korea," Masao Okonogi, a research professor at the Research Center for Korean Studies of Kyushu University in Fukuoka City, told Asia Times Online. "It's very difficult to bridge that gap, and it's difficult to resolve this issue." <br />
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South Korea's Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin on May 17 canceled a trip to Japan. Kim was expected to visit Tokyo on May 30 and 31 to conclude two bilateral accords on sharing military intelligence and logistics, in what would be the first such pacts since Japan's colonial rule over Korea ended in 1945. <br />
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"As public attention is high on a military pact with Japan, I will not handle the matter with more haste than caution but handle it throughout discussions at the National Assembly," Kim was quoted as telling Park Ji-won, the floor leader of the Democratic United Party (DUP), according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency. <br />
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His reservations over bilateral military cooperation with Tokyo came just days after South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda at a summit in Beijing on May 13 agreed to move forward on concluding the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), a pact on the sharing of military intelligence, and the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA), another pact for the exchange of supplies between the South Korean military and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (SDF). <br />
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Behind the South Korean defense chief's sudden policy reversal was an opposition party offensive. Park on May 17 urged Kim to be cautious about signing any military pact with Japan as Tokyo had not fully repented on atrocities committed during its colonial rule, Yonhap news agency reported. <br />
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This incident became a major setback for the strengthening of the US-led alliance in the Asia-Pacific region to counter the military expansion of China. The foreign ministers of Japan and Australia on May 17 had signed an accord aimed at protecting classified information shared by the two nations, the latest example of bilateral agreements between US allies in the region. <br />
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The US also has tightened security ties with Australia, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam in recent years, the US alliance system that Beijing considers a tool of encirclement. Thus, the US has long wanted the agreements between Japan and South Korea, the US's strongest allies in the region, to contribute to enhancing greater cooperation among its alliance partners by filling the missing link, especially when Seoul was about to stomach them politically. <br />
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This tinderbox was ignored for years, but the recent dispute first erupted in late August 2011 when the constitutional court of South Korea decided that it was a violation of the constitution for the government to make no tangible effort to resolve the compensation claims from former "comfort women", who were mobilized, or often coerced, as sex slaves during its 1910-1945 colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula. Following the court decision, the Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially requested the Japanese government to start negotiations over the issues. <br />
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Then, during a summit between the two nations last December in Kyoto, Lee directly also asked Noda to address the issue of comfort women. Meanwhile, a couple days earlier, a statue of a comfort woman was set up in front of the Japanese Embassy in Seoul, reigniting diplomatic tensions between the two nations. <br />
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Most recently, a museum called the War and Women's Human Rights Museum opened on May 5 in Seoul. The museum records the turbulent history of comfort women through photographs, videos, documents and clothes detailing the history of their victimization. Placed in the exhibition is the same bronze statue of a demure teenage girl in traditional Korean <i>hanbok</i> that was implanted across the narrow street from the rear of the Japanese Embassy. <br />
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"The life I've lived is like a dream, but even dreams come as terrible nightmares," one engraving of a comfort woman says. Another says, "I am the very evidence alive. Why does Japan say they have no evidence?" <br />
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When I visited the museum on May 14, a South Korean resident in Osaka welcomed me as a volunteer guide and toured me throughout the museum, which has two stories and a basement level. <br />
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"Harumoni just hope this kind of tragedy will never happen again," Oh Woog-yeon, 40, who lives in the Ikuno district of Osaka, said at the museum. Harumoni means grandmothers in Korea. She said there are now only 61 survivors left out of the 234 "comfort women" registered with the South Korean government. <br />
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The Japanese Embassy in Seoul has lodged a complaint on South Korea’s funding of the museum, claiming that exhibition regarding the so-called “comfort women” did not comply with Japan’s stance. <br />
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Takashi Kurai, minister and deputy chief of mission at the Japanese Embassy in South Korea, on May 7 visited Korea’s foreign ministry to lodge a protest, expressing regret that the South Korea government had provided 500 million won (about US$427,000) towards building the museum, Japan’s conservative Sankei newspaper reported on May 18. <br />
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The newspaper said the museum’s exhibition did not recognize Japan’s efforts to solve the issue of comfort women. <br />
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Although Seoul has urged Japan to take a positive stance on solving the issue, Tokyo has made no concrete response. Japan has maintained the issue was settled by a 1965 treaty that normalized bilateral ties. <br />
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While many South Koreans think the Japanese government continues to delay issuing official apologies or compensation from government coffers, many Japanese feel that they have already repeatedly apologized and expressed regret. <br />
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Moreover, although many Japanese think Tokyo has no legal obligation to compensate war victims, including those forced to become laborers and comfort women, Japan has already tried to make its best efforts to make amends in some way for their ancestors' crimes on humanitarian grounds. The Asian Women's Fund (AWF), which was privately established in 1995 to follow Germany's "Germany-Poland Reconciliation Fund", collected money from the Japanese public and distributed it to former comfort women. <br />
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South Koreans and their government had repeatedly criticized the fund after Japan started paying atonement money to South Korean women in January 1997. The objecting South Koreans said the money should come from directly from the Japanese government treasury, accompanied by an official apology. <br />
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Right-wing Japanese lawmakers and neo-conservative nationalists have also exasperated elderly Korean female survivors of the enslavement of comfort women by claiming many Korean women during the war were merely sex workers for money. Those reactionaries have always bitterly disputed that it was Japan's official policy of centralized recruiting and dispatching of comfort women to carefully administered comfort station under military control. <br />
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For South Korea's part, some supporters are, consciously or subconsciously, using those women to stir up the so-called victim-based Korean nationalism. The issue has been assimilated to national history, sometimes ignoring the women's real feeling and experiences. Many experts have pointed out the women were not often given freedom of speech because they were expected to become symbols of the Japanese colonial exploitation of Korea, although each woman had different relations with Japanese people. <br />
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Japan has amnesia about past wrongs generally, while Seoul is failing to accommodate the victims' feelings. <br />
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"Both governments need to decide whether they will seriously work together by building up domestic consensus, or decide to mothball this issue once and for all as it seems impossible to solve," Okonogi said. <br />
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<i><b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke </i><br />
<br />
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-8009916273071335892012-05-17T09:36:00.001-07:002012-05-17T09:36:33.974-07:00Japan–USA: Dynamic, Bilateral Defence Cooperation - World - The Ukrainian Week<a href="http://ukrainianweek.com/World/50401#.T7Un4gDBGpQ.blogger">Japan–USA: Dynamic, Bilateral Defence Cooperation - World - The Ukrainian Week</a><br />
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<tr><td><div class="bf4" style="color: grey;"><span style="color: grey; vertical-align: middle; white-space: nowrap;">May 17, 2012</span><span style="color: silver;"> ▪ </span><span style="color: grey; vertical-align: middle; white-space: nowrap;">Interviewed by: Viktor Kaspruk</span></div></td><td align="right"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="display: none;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="padding: 1px;"><img border="0" src="http://ukrainianweek.com/images/Commands/Arrows/minus1.gif" /></td><td style="background-image: url("/Images/Style1/Backgrounds/bbb_t_b10.gif"); background-repeat: repeat-x; width: 46px;"><div align="center" class="af5" style="color: red;">-25</div></td><td style="padding: 1px;"><img border="0" src="http://ukrainianweek.com/images/Commands/Arrows/plus1.gif" /></td><td style="padding-left: 8px;"><img border="0" src="http://ukrainianweek.com/images/Commands/Stars/star20_0.gif" /></td></tr>
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</tbody></table><h1 class="ap5">Japan–USA: Dynamic, Bilateral Defence Cooperation</h1><div class="bf1 ap3" style="font-style: italic;">Political analyst Kosuke Takahashi, a former staff writer at Asahi Shimbun and Bloomberg News, is a Tokyo-based expert who writes in both English and Japanese.</div><div class="bf1 ap3" style="font-style: italic;"> </div><div style="padding-left: 48px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="ap3"><tbody>
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He currently works as Tokyo correspondent for <em>Asia Times Online</em> and <em>IHS Jane's Defence Weekl</em>y. He also served as TV commentator for <em>Nikkei CNBC</em> (news television channel broadcast in Japan) from March 2009 to March 2012. He graduated from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism and the School of International and Public Affairs as a dual master's degree student.<br />
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<strong>U.W.: Mr. Takahashi, in your latest article "US, Japan: Not quite 20-20 vision" you write, that "United States President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda pledged to boost their security alliance to maintain peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region - a move intended to counter China's military buildup and North Korea's erratic belligerence. After their 60-minute summit, the two leaders issued a joint statement titled A Shared Vision for the Future". What does this agreement mean for Japan?</strong><br />
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For Japan, the agreement means further military integration with the US, which started in the late 1990s.<br />
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When you look back over the history of US-Japan relations, the bilateral alliance once drifted in the early 1990's in the wake of the end of the Cold War era without a new common policy goal.<br />
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But since the late 1990s, the alliance has undergone significant changes to enhance bilateral defence and security cooperation. Particularly in 1996, US President Bill Clinton and Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto issued the "US-Japan Joint Declaration on Security." This declaration reconfirmed for the first time that a stronger US-Japan security alliance helps ensure peace and security not only in Japan and the Far East, but also in the Asia-Pacific region. The 1960 Japan-US Security Treaty is just aimed at contributing to the security of Japan and the Far East, so the 1996 joint declaration expanded the range of Japan’s defence virtually.<br />
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Behind the move have been North Korea’s unstoppable nuclear and missile development programmes, which became evident in the early 1990s. To cope with the North Korean threat, the US and Japan, for example, have jointly developed Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) systems up to the present.<br />
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Although on April 30 US President Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda stressed developing a shared vision for the future, there still appear to be some differences in their positions.<br />
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While the US still cares about the so-called asymmetric threats like terrorism, unconventional guerrilla warfare, cyber-attacks and laser attacks from a long-term strategic standpoint in its global defence posture, Japan is tactically trying to solve individual problems such as the burden of US military bases carried mostly by the people in Okinawa without its own national strategy.<br />
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<strong>U.W.: The new concept of "bilateral dynamic defence cooperation" was introduced for the first time. How will this affect the level of cooperation between Japan and America?</strong><br />
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The new concept of "bilateral dynamic defence cooperation" includes timely and effective joint training, joint surveillance and reconnaissance activities, as well as joint and shared use of facilities for US forces and the Japanese Self-Defence Forces (JSDF).<br />
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Specifically, the two governments affirmed to consider co-developing training areas in Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, such as Tinian and Pagan islands, for US forces and the JSDF. Both governments plan to identify specific areas of cooperation by the end of this year.<br />
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This new defence cooperation will bring the bilateral alliance to a higher level of integration, paving the way for the SDF to intensify activities abroad, in addition to its UN PKO activities such as in Haiti and South Sudan.<br />
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However, the JSDF working routinely with US forces in other parts of the Asia-Pacific region could lead to the use of forces outside Japan, which the nation's pacifist constitution strictly prohibits.<br />
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Despite such concerns, there has been no national debate in the Diet (parliament) on dynamic defence cooperation, and no effort by the Noda administration to build a people's consensus. The “bilateral dynamic defence cooperation” is likely to chip away at the principle of the postwar "Peace Constitution" without sparking a national debate on it.<br />
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A recent move to integrate the Japan Air Self-Defence Force (JASDF)'s main command with the US Yokota Air Base in late March, which is home to the US Forces Japan (USFJ) headquarters and the US 5th Air Force, also represents enhanced bilateral military cooperation. The move is part of a 2006 agreement on the realignment of USFJ.<br />
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The Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF) has also already relocated its command centre to Yokosuka Naval Base: also home to the US Navy's 7th Fleet. The Japan Ground Self-Defence Force (JGSDF)'s Central Readiness Force, which is currently based at Camp Asaka in Saitama Prefecture, is also scheduled to move to Camp Zama, the home of US Army Japan, in March 2013. These moves are highly likely to further strengthen the two nations' defence collaboration against North Korea and China.<br />
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<strong>U.W.: Was Washington's request for Tokyo to increase its security role made partly because the United States will be forced to cut its defence spending in the face of worsening federal deficits?</strong><br />
<br />
Yes, that’s the number one reason. Faced with mounting fiscal difficulties, the US has to reduce the US military presence in Japan, particularly in Okinawa, whether it likes it or not.<br />
<br />
The number two reason is China’s growing military might. How to deal with a rising China is the US and Japan's biggest common interest. China's growing naval power and its enhanced strike capabilities are reshaping the security dynamic in the region. This has caused the US to shift its security pivot toward the Asia-Pacific by expanding its military footprint in Australia, the Philippines and Singapore. With the Pentagon well aware of China's "anti-access/area denial" strategy and its focus on the so-called AirSea battle concept, it aims to move US Marines currently stationed on Japan's Okinawa Island to other areas out of China's missile strike range.<br />
<br />
In addition, the new military strategy of "offshore balancing" is becoming widespread in Washington, which would reduce US troops in Japan and lead Japan to counter China. Offshore balancing is convenient to the US in that it could avoid direct confrontation with China, and also it can drive a wedge between Beijing and Tokyo in order for them not to unite in East Asia, excluding the US. The US has been against the establishment of an East Asian Community, or an economic and political bloc equivalent to the European Union, which was proposed by a former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.<br />
<br />
<strong>U.W.: Does the new plan help the allies work around the central but still-unresolved dispute over moving the Futenma air base from a crowded part of Okinawa to a new site?</strong><br />
<br />
The new agreement already drew ire from Okinawans for a couple of reasons. In the first place, the US and Japan decided to stick to the existing plan to relocate the controversial US Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma to Henoko, Nago, in northern Okinawa by constructing a new sea-based replacement facility off Camp Schwab.<br />
<br />
Secondly, the Japanese government has pledged to pay refurbishment costs for the MCAS Futenma on Okinawa until that sea-based replacement facility is constructed on the north of the island. The local government has demanded the immediate closure of the Futenma site, which is situated in a built-up area, instead of performing maintenance and repairs on it. Okinawans are worried that maintenance and repair work on MCAS Futenma will mean its continued use and they fear the air station will become a permanent fixture.<br />
<br />
MCAS Futenma base is currently located in the heart of the densely populated Ginowan City creating a dangerous situation. In recent years, in August 2004, a US Marine Corps CH-53D transport helicopter crashed into Okinawa International University’s school building without any casualties. (Thanks to summer vacation, most students were off-campus.)<br />
<br />
In addition, the US is reportedly planning to deploy the MV-22 Osprey vertical take-off and landing transport aircraft to the MCAS Futenma in July. Okinawans cite concerns about safety and noise pollution from the aircraft; during its development the Osprey suffered a series of accidents. Also, in April a Marine Corps MV-22 Osprey crashed in Morocco, raising safety concerns about the aircraft again.<br />
<br />
<strong>U.W.: The U.S. alliance with Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, is at the heart of Obama’s expanded engagement in Asia — is this diplomatic thrust motivated in part by a desire to counter the growing economic and military clout of strategic rival China?</strong><br />
<br />
Yes, China is changing this region’s security dynamic rapidly. Militarily, the US still wants to maintain a presence in Japan to the extent allowed by local citizens, just like it is sticking to the Henoko relocation plan. Especially, it will maintain key US troops and bases in Japan at all costs, including the US Navy's 7th Fleet at Yokosuka Naval Base and the US Kadena Air Base. Meanwhile, it is likely to employ the offshore balancing strategy, by gradually letting Japan, South Korea, Australia and other nations manage their own problems against China without direct US involvement. Fiscal constraints will certainly force the US to do so.<br />
<br />
<strong>U.W.: Is the U.S.-Japan alliance the cornerstone of peace, security and stability in the Asia-Pacific region?</strong><br />
<br />
I think so. But the problem is both governments are facing a massive budget deficit and it is becoming hard to sustain the current level of security alliance. This is why both governments are stepping up joint efforts to move their troops effectively.<br />
<br />
For Japan, which is in the poorest financial shape among developed countries - its government debt has reaching 230% of gross domestic product - the ever-increasing burden of the realignment of US forces is becoming a big problem in Tokyo. The disastrous March 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accidents have also imposed an enormous financial burden on Japan.<br />
<br />
On April 30, the two governments said the total cost of relocating marines and their dependents from Okinawa to Guam would be lowered to US$8.6 billion from the original $10.27 billion. However, the cost to Japan has risen from a maximum of $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion, compensating for inflation.<br />
<br />
The Japanese share of costs includes building expenses for land, housing, schools and other facilities in Guam as well as the costs of developing the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, such as Tinian Island, where, as an historical irony, two B-29s took off to drop atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945.<br />
<br />
If those facilities were to be created inside its own territory, Japanese people would be content to incur such huge costs. But now, as if Tokyo had become an automated teller machine for the US, the facilities are being built outside of Japan.<br />
<br />
Thanks in part to Japan's money, Guam will have its largest military presence since the Vietnam War in the 1960s and early 1970s when US Air Force B-52s made daily bombing runs from bases on the island.</div></div>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-89665330670847708092012-05-08T02:36:00.001-07:002012-05-08T02:36:54.146-07:00(My latest for Asia Times Online) When ping-pong diplomacy stirred Korea<span class="messageBody" data-ft="{"type":3}"><div class="text_exposed_root text_exposed">For the first time I wrote a movie review in English. I reviewed a Korean movie titled “KOREA”. </div><div class="text_exposed_root text_exposed"> </div><div class="text_exposed_root text_exposed">英語で初めて映画批評記事を書きました。筆力を上げるための良い訓練になりました。</div><div class="text_exposed_root text_exposed"> </div><div class="text_exposed_root text_exposed">한국의 친구의 여러분, 한국 영화 『KOREA』의 비평 기사를 영어로 썼습니다. 별이 5개가 좋은 영화입니다! (^^)</div><div class="text_exposed_root text_exposed"> </div><div class="text_exposed_root text_exposed"><img align="left" alt="" hspace="6" src="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/images/film080512.gif" /><strong><span style="color: maroon;">FILM REVIEW</span></strong><a href=""><strong>When ping-pong<br />
diplomacy stirred Korea</strong></a><br />
<i><b>KOREA</b></i>, directed by <b>Moon Hyun-sung</b><br />
<img height="5" src="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/images/1pix.gif" width="5" /><br />
A traditional underdog sports film that sees unlikely bedfellows unite for victory, this movie tells the true story of how a North and South Korean table tennis team overcame inner tensions to defeat China and win the world title. An anecdote to increasing tensions between Seoul and Pyongyang, the film could serve to remind younger audiences of the positives of Korean solidarity.<br />
- <b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> <span style="color: #999999; font-size: xx-small;">(May 8, '12)</span></div><div class="text_exposed_root text_exposed"> </div><div class="text_exposed_root text_exposed"><strong><span style="color: maroon;">FILM REVIEW</span></strong> <br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><strong><a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/NE09Dg01.html" target="_blank">When ping-pong diplomacy stirred Korea</a></strong></span> <br />
<i><b>KOREA</b>, directed by <b>Moon Hyun-sung</b></i> <br />
<br />
Reviewed by Kosuke Takahashi <br />
<br />
TOKYO - Two decades have passed since the end of the Cold War, but Korea still remains divided at the 38th parallel. Without having signed a peace treaty after the Korean War ended in 1953, North and South Korea are still technically at war. <br />
<br />
For Pyongyang, the head of its neighboring state is a key target in its smear campaigns. In recent months, North Korean state media has even stepped up its rhetoric against the "traitorous" South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, branding him a "rabid dog" or a "rat" or a "tiger moth". <br />
<br />
Meanwhile, on May 5 - Children's Day - Lee likened the North to a "bad and disobedient child" for ignoring voices in the international community calling for a halt to its launch of a long-range rocket last month. <br />
<br />
Though North Korea is ramping up the war of words amid suspicions it is gearing up for a third nuclear test , young people in Seoul seem not too interested in North-South issues. They hardly feel a sense of solidarity and kinship with North Korea in their daily lives. <br />
<br />
<img align="left" alt="" hspace="6" src="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/images/film080512.gif" />Wanting to make a difference in this regard and raise questions about such mutual mistrust within the same race, Moon Hyun-sung has made the movie known as <i>As One</i> in English and <i>KOREA</i> in Korean. Moon's directorial debut, the film hit theaters in South Korea on May 3. <br />
<br />
Based on a real event, the film retells how South and North Korea formed a unified national sports team for the 41st world table tennis championships held in Chiba, near Tokyo in 1991. <br />
<br />
Defying expectations, the joint team beat the most likely champions, China, which was trying to win the world title for the ninth consecutive year. <br />
<br />
"I thought the only beautiful event in North-South relations was the story of those athletes [in the table tennis championships in 1991]," said Moon of his motivations to make film at a sneak preview in Chiba on April 20. "I have been interested in table tennis since my childhood and I was a fan of Hyun Jung-hwa." Hyun is the legendary South Korean female table tennis player on whom the movie is centered around. <br />
<br />
The film is not just a sports flick or underdog's tale, rather it's closer to famous South Korean movies <i>Shiri</i> and <i>JSA</i>, which focused on human relationships between the South and the North. It draws on strong Korean national sentiment and revives North-South solidarity by dramatizing a human-interest story of the top athletes of the two nations, who had great conflicts, tensions and suspense during the 46 days when the team was temporarily formed for the tournament. <br />
<br />
In the movie, one North Korean male player became subject to serious punishment by the ruling Korean Workers' Party (KWP), simply because he received a name card from the team coach of a Western team. North Korea's dominant party viewed it as an asylum bid. <br />
<br />
Also, North Korea's athletes were forcibly ordered to leave Chiba and go back to Pyongyang immediately by the KWP just one day before their final match with China, because the government's "minders," or surveillance agents, who always escorted their athletes, said the players had become too immersed in Western culture, drinking alcohol and interacting with South Korean players privately. <br />
<br />
Two of South Korea's <i>du jour marquee</i> actresses in their early 30s enrich a heartwarming masterpiece based on a true story. Ha Ji-won, a sexy action star who is often compared with American actress Angelina Jolie, played the role of South Koreans national sports heroine Hyun Jung-hwa. And actress Bae Doo-na, known for her sublime performances, represents North Korea's top female table tennis player Li Bun-hui. <br />
<br />
Asked whether the movie would have an impact on young South Koreans, who are often indifferent about relations with the North, Ha said, "I was very impressed by the process of how the two became one in the 46 days. I think the young people will be also impressed by it." <br />
<br />
Bae echoed Ha's views. "It's true the younger generation are not interested in North Korea, but I believe this movie could change things," said Bae, who skillfully recreated the blank expressions of the North's top player and uses North Korean language in the movie. <br />
<br />
Thanks to South Korean table tennis player Hyun Jung-hwa's actual coaching, the portrayal of the athletes is unerringly accurate. Ha said she practiced table tennis 12 hours a day for a month in a sweltering gymnasium. <br />
<br />
It's notable that behind the success of the unified Korean team was the late Ichiro Ogimura, a former Japanese table tennis player who visited South Korea 20 times and North Korea 14 times for negotiations to help realize the much-anticipated Korean joint team. He was president of the International Table Tennis Federation and died in 1994. Without Ogimura, this movie would have never had a tale to tell. <br />
<br />
In some respects the film reminds of the "ping pong diplomacy" in the early 1970s, which saw the exchange of table tennis players between the United States and the People's Republic of China. This marked a thaw in US-China relations that paved the way for a visit to Beijing by president Richard Nixon. <br />
<br />
Perhaps it would be asking too much to expect <i>KOREA</i> to have such a far-reaching impact as a thaw in ties between North and South Korea, bit its a small step in the right direction. <br />
<br />
<i><b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke </i><br />
<br />
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.) <br />
<br />
</div><div class="text_exposed_root text_exposed"> </div><div class="text_exposed_root text_exposed"></div></span><div class="text_exposed_root text_exposed"> </div>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-80142912538851313962012-05-02T11:14:00.000-07:002012-05-02T11:14:44.895-07:00(My latest for Jane's Defence Weekly) Obama and Noda commit to improving space co-operation<strong>ASIA PACIFIC </strong><br />
<div align="right">
<strong>Date Posted: 02-May-2012 </strong></div>
<br />
<br />
<center> Jane's Defence Weekly </center><br />
<hr />
<h2>
Obama and Noda commit to improving space co-operation</h2>
<b>Kosuke Takahashi</b><i> JDW Correspondent</i><br />
Tokyo<br />
<br />
<upperbody>The joint development of GPS capabilities and cyber-security co-operation were the notable outcomes of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's first official visit to Washington DC. <br />
<br />
Noda, the first Japanese leader to meet US President Barack Obama in Washington since his Democratic Party of Japan took power in September 2009, arrived days after the two countries agreed on a revised realignment plan for US forces in Japan. <br />
<br />
Speaking at the White House, Obama reiterated that "the US-Japan alliance will remain the foundation of the security and prosperity of our two nations [and] also a cornerstone of regional peace and security". A joint statement added: "We must also work to protect and develop the tremendous potential of critical areas such as the high seas, space, and cyberspace, ensuring their use is responsible and rule-based." </upperbody><br />
<upperbody><br />
</upperbody>Although the statement was short on details on how the two countries would achieve this, Obama and Noda did announce plans to enhance space co-operation through the US's GPS and Japan's Quasi-Zenith Satellite System (QZSS), which is designed to improve GPS-based navigation in the Asia-Pacific region. <br />
<br />
The US has about 30 GPS satellites in orbit. Japan launched its first QZSS satellite in September 2010.<br />
<hr />
<table border="0"><tbody>
<tr><td align="left">Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2012</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-18395935537300200462012-05-01T03:33:00.001-07:002012-05-02T11:18:38.409-07:00(My latest for Asia Times) US, Japan: Not quite 20-20 vision<br />
<a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/NE02Dh01.html"><strong>US, Japan: Not quite 20-20
vision</strong></a><a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/NE02Dh01.html"></a><br />
With United States President Barack Obama and Japanese
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda pledging to boost their security alliance to
maintain peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region, the leaders have taken
their "shared vision" a step further. However, the picture becomes blurred over
the hefty bill Tokyo will have to foot in the relocation of US forces from Japan
to Guam. - <b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> <span style="color: #999999; font-size: xx-small;">(May 1,
'12)</span> <br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/NE02Dh01.html#.T5-7jjTLLkQ.blogger">Asia Times Online :: US, Japan: Not quite 20-20 vision</a><br />
By Kosuke Takahashi <br />
TOKYO - United States President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda on Monday pledged to boost their security alliance to maintain peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region - a move intended to counter China's military buildup and North Korea's erratic belligerence. <br />
<br />
Noda became Japan's first premier to formally meet with Obama in Washington since the Democratic Party of Japan took power in September 2009. Amid Japan's revolving door of prime ministers who tend to resign after very short tenures, Noda is the sixth national leader in as many years - he assumed office in September 2011. <br />
<br />
After their 60-minute summit, the two leaders issued a joint statement titled "A Shared Vision for the Future", [1] the first of its kind since June 2006 when then-US president George W Bush and prime minister Junichiro Koizumi issued a joint statement titled "The Japan-US Alliance of the New Century". <br />
<br />
"Our joint vision lays out the future we seek in the Asia-Pacific - a region where international rules and norms are upheld, where nations contribute to regional security, where commerce and freedom of navigation is not impeded and where disputes are resolved peacefully," Obama said at a press conference, apparently aiming to keep in check fast-growing China's naval power. <br />
<br />
Although the two governments have stressed to develop a shared vision for the future, there appear to be some differences in their positions. <br />
<br />
While the US still cares about the so-called asymmetric threats such as terrorism, unconventional guerrilla warfare and cyber-attacks from a long-term strategic standpoint of its global defense posture, Japan is tactically trying to solve individual problems such as the burden of US military bases carried mostly by the people in Okinawa. <br />
<br />
On the defense front, the two leaders particularly hailed last week's new agreement [2] to realign American forces in Japan. <br />
<br />
The US and Japan on April 26 unveiled a revised agreement to transfer 9,000 US Marine Corps troops from Okinawa prefecture to Guam and other bases in the western Pacific: a move intended to reduce the impact of US bases on the southern Japanese island chain. <br />
<br />
The accord, which updates a 2006 agreement on the realignment of US forces in Japan, will relocate about 5,000 marines from Okinawa to Guam - a US territory - and the remaining 2,500 to Darwin of Australia, and 1,500 to Hawaii. About 10,000 troops will remain in Okinawa. <br />
<br />
"This reflects our effort to modernize America's defense posture in the Asia-Pacific with forces that are more broadly distributed, more flexible and more sustainable," Obama said at the White House on Monday. "At the same time, it will reduce the impact on local communities, like Okinawa." <br />
<br />
Last week's agreement for the first time introduced the new concept of "bilateral dynamic defense cooperation", which includes timely and effective joint training, joint surveillance and reconnaissance activities, as well as joint and shared use of facilities for US forces and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF). <br />
<br />
Specifically, the two governments affirmed to consider co-developing training areas in Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, such as Tinian and Pagan islands, for US forces and the JSDF. Both governments plan to identify specific areas of cooperation by the end of this year. <br />
<br />
However, the JSDF working routinely with US forces in other parts of the Asia-Pacific region could lead to the use of forces outside Japan, which the nation's pacifist constitution strictly prohibits. <br />
<br />
Despite such concerns, there has been no national debate in the Diet (parliament) on dynamic defense cooperation, and no effort by the Noda administration to build a people's consensus. <br />
<br />
For Japan, which is in poor financial shape among developed countries - its government debt has reaching 230% of gross domestic product - the ever-increasing burden of the realignment of US forces is becoming a big problem in Tokyo. <br />
<br />
The two governments last week said the total cost of relocating marines and their dependents from Okinawa to Guam would be lowered to US$8.6 billion from the original $10.27 billion. However, the cost to Japan has risen from a maximum of $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion, compensating for inflation. <br />
<br />
The Japanese share of costs includes building expenses for land, housing, schools and other facilities in Guam as well as the costs of developing the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, such as Tinian Island, where, as a historical irony, two B-29s took off to drop atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. <br />
<br />
If those facilities were to be created inside its own territory, Japanese people would be content to incur such huge costs. But now, as if Tokyo had become an automated teller machine for the US, the facilities are being built outside Japan. <br />
<br />
Thanks in part to Japan's money, Guam will have its largest military presence since the Vietnam War in the 1960s and early 1970s when US Air Force B-52s made daily bombing runs from bases on the island. <br />
<br />
In addition, the Japanese government has even pledged to pay refurbishment costs for the controversial Marine Corps Air Station Futenma on Okinawa, until a sea-based replacement facility off Camp Schwab is constructed on the north of the island. The local government has demanded the closure of the Futenma site, which is situated in a built-up area, instead of doing maintenance and repairs on it. <br />
<br />
"Japan has always shared the financial burden of the US forces innocuously," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online on Tuesday. "In the past decades, then ruling Liberal Democratic Party also did the same thing, so it also cannot complain about this now. It would be much better if we could use such money for our own defense." <br />
<br />
<i><b>Notes</b></i><br />
1. See <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/04/30/united-states-japan-joint-statement-shared-vision-future">here</a>. <br />
2. See <a href="http://www.defense.gov/releases/release.aspx?releaseid=15220">here</a>. <br />
<br />
<i><b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. His twitter is</i> @TakahashiKosuke <br />
<br />
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-10729847122127674112012-04-29T23:26:00.002-07:002012-05-02T11:18:55.367-07:00Plan to Move Marines Off Okinawa Faces ChallengesApril 27, 2012
<br />
<h2>
Plan to Move Marines Off Okinawa Faces Challenges</h2>
<br />
<div class="toolWrap">
<div class="byline">
Steve Herman <span class="location">| Seoul</span></div>
</div>
<br />
<div class="photo480px">
<img alt="FA-18 air fighters prepare to take off on the U.S. carrier George Washington in the Pacific near Minamidaito Island in Okinawa Prefecture, southern Japan, during a joint drill with the Japanese Self-D" border="0" height="320" src="http://media.voanews.com/images/480*320/Reut_USMilitary-Japan2_27apr12-resizedpx480q100dpi96shp8.jpg" title="FA-18 air fighters prepare to take off on the U.S. carrier George Washington in the Pacific near Minamidaito Island in Okinawa Prefecture, southern Japan, during a joint drill with the Japanese Self-D" width="480" />
<br />
<div>
<div class="credit">
Photo: Reuters</div>
<div class="caption">
FA-18 air fighters prepare to take off on the U.S. carrier
George Washington in the Pacific near Minamidaito Island in Okinawa Prefecture,
southern Japan, during a joint drill with the Japanese Self-Defense Forces.
(2010 File)</div>
</div>
</div>
<br />
<div class="articleBody">
Friday's announcement by the United States and Japan that 9,000 U.S. Marines
will be transferred from a base on the Japanese island of Okinawa is being
hailed as a major diplomatic accomplishment. But there are also concerns the
actual transfer will be fraught with numerous complications.<br />
<br />
The revised
realignment plan, agreed to by Japan and the United States, is seen as both a
compromise and a work still in progress.<br />
<br />
It calls for moving nearly half
of the 19,000 U.S. Marines off Okinawa. Up to 5,000 are to be re-deployed to the
Pacific island of Guam and 4,000 moved to either Hawaii or rotated in and out of
Australia.<br />
<br />
No timelines were revealed.<br />
<em><a href="http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/US-Japan-Reach-Agreement-to-Move-9000-Marines--149204505.html" target="_blank">Related story - US, Japan Reach Agreement to Move 9,000
Marines</a></em><br />
Political analyst and adjunct senior fellow Richard Baker at the East West
Center in Hawaii says the agreement comes after complex negotiations involving
political, technical, financial and infrastructural issues.<br />
"And I don't think it was inevitable that they would be able to make a
meeting of the minds of that sort, so that is the good news," he said. "Now the
bad news is that the public handling of this has got to be as sensitive as the
negotiations were and as nuanced."<br />
<br />
Still unresolved is what to do with a
Marine air station in the middle of a congested community on Okinawa. Most
analysts believe that a proposed move to a site farther north on the island is
unlikely to occur because of strong opposition locally. But the new airfield
plan has officially not been scrapped.<br />
<br />
Many Okinawans prefer to see all
the Marines permanently vacate the islands. That is also unlikely in an era
when concerns about China's rise mean other Asia-Pacific nations want a
reassuring presence of U.S. military forces in the immediate
neighborhood.<br />
<br />
The Obama administration has been telling its allies that
the United States is making renewed and long-term military commitments to the
region.<br />
<br />
Baker, a retired veteran U.S. diplomat, acknowledges that
repositioning troops from Okinawa to Guam and Hawaii may be viewed as a move in
the wrong geographical direction.<br />
"Critics will be tempted to say that this belies the intended pivot to Asia.
I think that would be an unfair criticism given the realities of the
negotiations and the realities of the very, very longstanding problem in Okinawa
that this is designed to solve," he noted.<br />
<br />
Japan is to partly fund the
$8.6 billion cost of a buildup on the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam.<br />
<br />
It
will be the largest military presence on the island since the Vietnam War when
U.S. Air Force B-52s made daily bombing runs from Guam.<br />
<br />
Guam, with a
population of about 180,000, already hosts more than 7,000 military personnel,
primarily assigned to Andersen Air Force Base, and a facility on the western
side of the island known as “Big Navy.”<br />
<br />
"The key thing, I think, for most
people in Guam, is just to make sure that our infrastructure is developed so we
can handle the new capacity," stated Senator Judi Guthertz who chairs Guam's
legislative committee on the military buildup. "And that everyone has a deep
respect for each other here so that we're able to maintain the new identity and
the unique tropicalness and beauty of the island. And I think our military
partners are aware of that."<br />
<br />
Originally there were plans to move twice
the number of Marines -- 9,000 in all, to Guam.<br />
<br />
That will somewhat ease
concerns over the expensive infrastructure upgrades.<br />
<br />
Lawmakers and the
public in Guam still have many concerns and unanswered questions. Among them:
the location for firing ranges and a port where visiting U.S. Navy aircraft
carriers will berth.<br />
<br />
The indigenous Chamorros have objected to any range
site trespassing on ancient grounds while the initial anchorage site in Apra
harbor has upset environmentalists and the tourism sector because dredging would
destroy or damage more than 25 hectares of coral.<br />
<br />
Guam Senator Guthertz
supports the move of more Marines to the island but faces other questions from
her constituents.<br />
"Questions that remain are will the military be building housing to
accommodate the Marines or will they be using housing available in the
community? What kind of services will they need in the community from our
private sector companies that are anxious and able to provide responses to their
requests for proposals? So the economic benefits, I think, will occur but we're
not sure in what shape or what form yet," he said.<br />
<br />
Several powerful U.S.
senators have been concerned about the plan's overall cost and its impact on
America's regional military strategy.<br />
<br />
The simultaneous announcement
Friday in Tokyo and Washington addressed some of their concerns.<br />
<br />
After
the joint announcement the senators (Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl
Levin and Jim Webb, both Democrats, along with former Republican presidential
candidate John McCain) issued a statement saying they “still have many questions
about the specific details” and its implications for force posture in the
Asia-Pacific region.</div>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-39460621153716522692012-04-29T23:25:00.003-07:002012-05-02T11:20:22.784-07:00North Korea may not proceed with nuke test in immediate future: Pollack<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 560px;">
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North Korea may not proceed with nuke test in
immediate future: Pollack </div>
<span class="bodytext">"They will test it at some point, but not now yet,"
Jonathan Pollack said. -Korea Herald/ANN </span><br />
<span class="content_subtitle">Song Sang-ho <br /><br />Mon, Apr 30, 2012<br />The Korea
Herald/Asia News Network </span><br />
<br />
<span class="bodytext">
North Korea is unlikely to conduct a third nuclear test in the immediate
future given that it could infuriate China and make the political tide
unfavorable for it ahead of the December presidential vote in the South, a
renowned US scholar said.</span><br />
<span class="bodytext"><br />
"They will test it at some point, but not now yet," Jonathan Pollack of the
Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank, told The Korea Herald.<br />
<br />
"The reason might not be technical, but political that another nuclear test
would probably be damaging to North Korea from the point of view of seeing a
future South Korean president more aligned with their interests."<br />
<br />
Pollack was in Seoul last week to attend the 2012 Asan Plenum, a three-day
international forum on global challenges that kicked off last Wednesday.<br />
<br />
The annual forum was organized by local think tank Asan Institute for Policy
Studies.<br />
<br />
Pyongyang may face a tougher response from its crucial patron China should it
take another destabilizing action following the recent rocket launch, he pointed
out.<br />
<br />
In an unusual move, Beijing agreed at the UN Security Council to condemn
Pyongyang on April 16, three days after the botched launch.<br />
<br />
"They may also be weighing the implications. This time, China would really
impose some severe costs on them. We have the Chinese vice foreign minister in
the forum, giving some very forceful remarks," he said.<br />
<br />
"He did not say a nuclear test, but you could see what he was talking about
to make clear that China's disapproval of any such third test would be very
strong, potentially very harsh."<br />
<br />
Pollack paid particular attention to the fact that Pyongyang has not been
explicit yet about its preparation for a nuclear test while it gave some
explanation before their past nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.<br />
<br />
"There has been no explicit threat to test the nuclear weapon. The other
thing I want to emphasize that in both 2006 and 2009, they developed almost what
we would call an immediate campaign over a period of time," he said.<br />
<br />
"I don't know, it was perhaps, weeks or months, but it was trying to build
the case for why they would then proceed to a nuclear test."<br />
<br />
Although it would not be easy for Beijing to change its core policy toward
its impoverished ally considering that it favors stability on the peninsula,
China could make some adjustments in it to protect its national interests, he
argued.<br />
<br />
"The Chinese are not, in my own view, likely to discard North Korea, but
under some circumstances, it is possible that they might really try to put
limits on the relationship if North Korea is affecting their Chinese vital
interests," he said.<br />
<br />
"China's larger worries concern North Korea undertaking actions to which the
ROK (Republic of Korea) would respond this time, and then, this triggers an
environment that draws in both the US and China on the peninsula."<br />
<br />
Regarding concerns here that the US could show some reluctance to intervene
militarily should a war break out here as it did in Syria, he said the situation
would be different.<br />
<br />
Given deepening public fatigue in the US after a decade of war in Iraq and
Afghanistan, and its recent show of reluctance to engage in a Syrian conflict,
some here showed apprehension over how the US would move in case of a war
here.<br />
<br />
"It would be much more that the US has made explicit, time and time again,
has invested enormous amount of treasure, financial treasure, human commitments
of the ROK. That is not something we would walk away from," he said.<br />
<br />
"It does have a symbolic meaning (to other US allies) as well without a
doubt."</span></td></tr>
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</tbody></table>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-77423547043461124022012-04-27T22:15:00.001-07:002012-05-02T11:20:40.590-07:00(My latest story for Jane's Defence Weekly) US, Japan revise realignment plans for US forces<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr><td class="med_arial" valign="top"><strong>ASIA PACIFIC </strong><br />
<div align="right">
<b>Date Posted: 27-Apr-2012 </b></div>
<br />
<br />
<center> Jane's Defence Weekly </center><br />
<hr />
<h2>
US, Japan revise realignment plans for US forces</h2>
<b>Kosuke Takahashi</b><i> JDW Correspondent</i><br />
Tokyo<br />
<b>James Hardy</b><i> JDW Asia-Pacific Editor</i><br />
London<br />
<br />
<upperbody></upperbody><br />
<table bgcolor="#ebebeb" border="1" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr><td><h3>
Key Points</h3>
<ul>
<li>The US and Japan have unveiled a new agreement on the realignment of US forces currently based in Okinawa Prefecture</li>
<li>The agreement moves forward with plans to relocate 9,000 US marines outside Japan without resolving the contentious Futenma air base replacement </li>
</ul>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The United States and Japan on 26 April unveiled a revised agreement to transfer 9,000 US Marine Corps (USMC) troops from Okinawa Prefecture to Guam and other bases in the Western Pacific: a move intended to reduce the impact of US bases on the southern Japanese island chain. <br />
<br />
The accord, which updates a 2006 agreement on the realignment of US forces in Japan, will relocate about 5,000 marines from Okinawa to Guam - a US territory - and the remaining 4,000 to Hawaii and Australia. About 10,000 troops will remain in Okinawa. <br />
''These adjustments are necessary to realise a US force posture in the Asia-Pacific region that is more geographically distributed, operationally resilient and politically sustainable,'' the joint statement said. <br />
<br />
The statement also opens up the possibility of reviewing a long-standing plan to relocate Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma. The local government has demanded the closure of the Futenma site, which is situated in a built-up area, but has rejected a plan to construct a sea-based replacement facility off Camp Schwab in the north of the island. <br />
<br />
While the agreement said this "remains the only viable solution that has been identified to date", the phrase "that has been identified to date" is an addition to previous statements. <br />
<br />
Another new development is a plan to consider developing sites in Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, such as the Tinian and Pagan islands, as shared-use exercise facilities for US forces and the Japan Self-Defence Forces. <br />
<br />
The agreement also confirmed that six military facilities south of Kadena Air Base will be returned to Japan, including Camp Kuwae, Camp Zukeran and MCAS Futenma, although the air station will remain open until a replacement is operational, a senior US official said. <br />
<br />
The two governments said the total cost of relocating marines and their dependents from Okinawa to Guam would be lowered to USD8.6 billion from the original USD10.27 billion. However, the cost to Japan has risen from a maximum of USD2.8 billion to USD3.1 billion, compensating for inflation. <br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><td bgcolor="#ebebeb"><b>COMMENT</b></td></tr>
<tr><td>The revised realignment is a partial victory for local residents and the prefectural government, both of which have faced down immense pressure from Tokyo to agree to the 2006 realignment plan and, in particular, the relocation of MCAS Futenma to the north of Okinawa island. <br />
<br />
A senior Obama administration official admitted as much in a background briefing, saying that "we've been spending so much time talking about the move from Futenma that we're not making as much progress as we would have liked in other aspects of the alliance". A senior Pentagon official concurred, admitting that the revised agreement relaxed the commitment to the Futenma replacement plan to give "the government of Japan the political space that it needs to advance the issue on Okinawa". <br />
<br />
US officials are eager to describe this agreement as naturally fitting a renewed focus on the region. The Pentagon official said it would provide "an improved USMC force posture in the Asia-Pacific, one that is more capable and more geographically distributed. This presence is integral to our larger strategy of rebalancing towards the Asia-Pacific". <br />
<br />
The official added that by removing a key sticking point the US-Japan alliance could focus on "a forward-looking agenda ... including co-operation in cyber security, in space, in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations. A number of areas where we really, I think, have a shared interest in deepening our co-operation". <br />
<br />
No timeline has been set for the realignment, but a number of actors could affect how quickly it occurs. These include senior members of the US Senate Armed Services Committee, who already said they were concerned about the cost of the realignment, and Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima. </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRijFoNJpupx7ZJWK1Ml_QQtySwBdez92Fc068S-t9pBEVfn_UHZuMAmUdrZv2XENeb1zLJqJIjJIT2oDiXbdvhn-_6MQk2ZNvSgM_2UJgBP32TOgeeMOi-N58xOYlRNiYp1HgpIE0cUMD/s1600/m1438372.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="299" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRijFoNJpupx7ZJWK1Ml_QQtySwBdez92Fc068S-t9pBEVfn_UHZuMAmUdrZv2XENeb1zLJqJIjJIT2oDiXbdvhn-_6MQk2ZNvSgM_2UJgBP32TOgeeMOi-N58xOYlRNiYp1HgpIE0cUMD/s320/m1438372.jpg" width="320" /></a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/" name="IMG"></a><br />
<table><tbody>
<tr><td> </td><td><span style="color: blue;">Under realignment plans announced on 26 April, the US will return six facilities on Okinawa to Japan, including Camp Kuwae, Camp Zukeran and Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma. (IHS/Roberto Filistad) </span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><td bgcolor="#ebebeb"><h3>
Related Articles</h3>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><ul>
<li>US, Japan postpone report on force realignment, jdw.janes.com, 26.04.12<br />
</li>
</ul>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<hr />
<table border="0"><tbody>
<tr><td align="left">Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2012</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
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<img alt="" border="0" height="1" name="s_i_ihsrollup" src="http://ows.ihs.com/b/ss/ihsrollup,ihsjanes.com/1/H.5-pdv-2/s58042528883940?[AQB]&ndh=1&t=28/3/2012%2014%3A11%3A38%206%20-540&ns=ihs&pageName=janes%3Asubscribe%3Ajdw%3Adoc_view_print.jsp&g=http%3A//jdw.janes.com/subscribe/jdw/doc_view_print.jsp%3FK2DocKey%3D/content1/janesdata/mags/jdw/history/jdw2012/jdw48915.htm@current%26Prod_Name%3DJDW%26showUpdate%3Dfalse%26&cc=USD&ch=industries&c1=subscribe&v1=subscribe&c2=janes&v2=janes&c3=janes%3Asubscribe&v3=janes%3Asubscribe&c11=5&v11=5&c13=Repeat&v13=Repeat&pid=janes%3Asubscribe%3Ajdw%3Adoc_view_print.jsp&pidt=1&oid=http%3A//www2.janes.com/janesdata/mags/jdw/history/jdw2012/images/m1438372.jpg&ot=A&oi=275&s=1280x720&c=24&j=1.3&v=Y&k=Y&bw=603&bh=403&ct=lan&hp=N&[AQE]" width="1" />Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-54417052597309864562012-04-26T01:38:00.001-07:002012-05-02T11:22:21.123-07:00(My latest for Asia Times) Phoenix-like Ozawa set to re-ignite Japan<a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/ND27Dh01.html"><strong>Phoenix-like Ozawa set to re-ignite Japan</strong></a><a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/ND27Dh01.html"></a><br />
<strong><img align="left" alt="" hspace="6" src="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/images/jap260412.gif" vspace="2" /></strong>Political kingpin Ichiro Ozawa would probably have had a stint as Japanese premier by now, had an investigation into corrupt funding not forced him to quit as Democratic Party of Japan chief in 2009. With a Tokyo court clearing him of all charges, the way is now clear for him to rise from the ashes and challenge incumbent Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's flagging leadership over the burning issue of a tax hike.<br />
- <b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> <span style="color: #999999; font-size: xx-small;">(Apr 26, '12)</span><br />
<br />
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<tr> <td><span style="font-size: small;"><strong>Phoenix-like Ozawa set to re-ignite Japan</strong></span><br />
By Kosuke Takahashi <br />
<br />
TOKYO - No Japanese politician has suffered such tumultuous torment as Ichiro Ozawa in recent years. By snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, the former Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) chief is about to rise, phoenix-like, to power again in Tokyo. <br />
<br />
Ozawa, 69, a long-time heavyweight in Japanese politics, was found not guilty of breaking political funding laws in a ruling handed down by the Tokyo District Court on Thursday. <br />
<br />
Under investigation, he was forced to resign as party leader in May 2009 - just ahead of a major power shift in Japan's de facto one-party dominance of government in the post-war era. Without investigators' probes, Japan's kingpin Ozawa would have been the nation's prime minister two-and-a-half years ago. <br />
<br />
His win in a court of law secures a comeback that has far-reaching implications on both domestic and international fronts. With Ozawa and his cohorts - who constitute the largest faction in the ruling DPJ - strongly opposing a consumption tax hike proposal, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is expected to lose his centripetal force of political power. Ozawa, viewed as pro-China, is also expected to rock the dynamics of Japan-US-China relations. <br />
<br />
"This absolutory sentence will cause fatal damage on the already suffering Noda administration," Minoru Morita, a noted political analyst in Tokyo, told Asia Times Online on Thursday. "A consumption tax hike becomes impossible now." <br />
<br />
Noda has repeatedly said he vows to realize the tax hike at the expense of his political life. He even expressed his intention to double the consumption tax to 10% by the mid-2010s at the Group of 20 summit meeting in Cannes, France, last November, virtually making the tax hike an international pledge. <br />
<br />
Advancing toward a tax hike with the economy still fragile in the aftermath of last year's earthquake and tsunami is bad timing on the part of Noda. According to a poll conducted between April 20 and April 22 by the Nikkei Shimbun and TV Tokyo, 29% of respondents approved of his cabinet, while 62% disapproved, the worst showing since he took office in September 2011. <br />
<br />
"The majority of lawmakers in both the DPJ and the opposition Liberal Democratic Party [LDP] are against a tax hike," Morita said. "With Ozawa restarting to move ahead actively from now on, campaigns against a consumption tax hike will get momentum." <br />
<br />
In an online broadcast last week, Ozawa signaled that he planned to run in the party's next presidential election in September, meaning if he wins he is the next prime minister. <br />
<br />
<b>Illegal searches</b><br />
In January 2011, Ozawa was indicted by a citizen judicial panel for alleged involvement in falsifying political funding reports on 400 million yen (about US$5 million), in violation of the Political Funds Control Law. <br />
<br />
Although the trial had focused on whether Ozawa's aides falsified records and whether he was notified and had approved of the falsification, the Tokyo District Court on February 17, 2012, rejected adopting as evidence most of the depositions taken by the investigative team from the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office from one of the former aides. The court found the depositions were not credible since Tokyo prosecutors used illegal tactics to obtain them. <br />
<br />
Why did prosecutors press ahead against Ozawa even by means of unlawful tactics? Political observers such as Morita view that since Ozawa has advocated shifting decision-making responsibility from bureaucrats to politicians, he provoked a major backlash in the nation's ponderous bureaucracy. <br />
<br />
Powerful politicians such as Ozawa, who boldly aims to tackle national problems through strong-arm tactics and risk-taking to confront and rein in the bloated bureaucracy, could be a major threat for Japan's mainstream conservative political elites, ruled by officialdom in Tokyo. Many view this led to the arrest of his aides over political donations by public prosecutors and their accusations against him. "This problem happened just ahead of the 2009 general election, which was about to bring about a change of government," Ozawa said in an interview with a Japanese weekly magazine in January. "Although there was no conclusive evidence, prosecutors conducted a criminal investigation into the head of the largest opposition party, which might cause regime change soon. Something like this ought not to be allowed in a democratic society." <br />
<br />
Japanese weekly magazines have criticized the Japanese mass media, most notably the conservative Yomiuri Shimbun, as repeatedly portraying Ozawa as the villain by running damaging stories about him based on a constant leak from prosecutors. <br />
<br />
"The Japanese mass media won't become unrepentant this time as well," Morita said. "You know what they are?" <br />
<br />
As for domestic problems, Ozawa has also criticized the Noda cabinet's move to push the reactivation of two reactors at Kansai Electric Power Co's Oi nuclear plant in Fukui prefecture. <br />
<br />
<b>International implications</b><br />
In the past, Ozawa has irritated the US by saying the US Navy's 7th Fleet, based in Yokosuka, Kanagawa prefecture, would be enough to secure the US military presence in the Asia-Pacific region from a strategic viewpoint - suggesting that he supported the withdrawal of all other US forces from Japan. In addition, Ozawa has been critical of Noda on Japan's participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. <br />
<br />
"Although this is also applied to the issue of moving Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa, Japan cannot equally talk to the US without showing what kind of the role Japan will play clearly. The problems lie in Japan's negotiating capabilities and the system," Ozawa said in an interview with the Asahi Shimbun in February. <br />
<br />
Ozawa's comeback to the center of the Japanese politics may ease the nation's tensions with China. In December 2009, Ozawa, then secretary general of the DPJ, accompanied more than 600 people, including 143 DPJ lawmakers from the upper and lower houses of the Diet (parliament), to Beijing. The visit was conducted as part of regular exchanges between the DPJ and the Chinese Communist Party, whose general secretary is Chinese President Hu Jintao. <br />
<br />
Ozawa is widely viewed as pro-China. His background and roots go back to a group founded by late prime minister Kakuei Tanaka, which signed a Japan-China joint communique that helped normalize diplomatic relations with China in 1972. <br />
<br />
But Morita disagreed with this view. "He is different from Tanaka, so he is not pro-China by his nature." <br />
<br />
<i><b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for IHS Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is </i>@TakahashiKosuke <br />
<br />
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.) </td></tr>
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</td></tr>
</tbody> </table>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-58679168705211673952012-04-23T04:20:00.001-07:002012-05-02T11:22:02.748-07:00(My latest for Asia Times Online): US plays a bit part in Pyongyang's parade<a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/ND24Dg02.html"><strong>US plays a bit part in Pyongyang's parade</strong></a><a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/ND24Dg02.html"></a><br />
Inclusion of a US maker's diesel engine and a German manufacturer's automatic transmission system in a missile launch vehicle seen in a military parade raises questions over the efficacy of international efforts to contain North Korea's nuclear weapons threat. The parts won't spare blushes in the American administration for admonishing China's technological role in Pyongyang.<br />
- <b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> <span style="color: #999999; font-size: xx-small;">(Apr 23, '12)</span><br />
<span style="color: #999999; font-size: xx-small;"></span><br />
<img alt="" src="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/images/kor230412.gif" vspace="5" /><br />
<br />
<strong>US plays a bit part in Pyongyang's parade</strong>By Kosuke Takahashi <br />
<br />
TOKYO - Are the United States and Germany birds of a feather flocking together with China? <br />
<br />
A US maker's diesel engine and a German manufacturer's automatic transmission system may have been used for a missile launch vehicle seen in a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, raising questions over the efficacy of the international effort to contain and reverse Pyongyang's nuclear weapons threat, Asia Times Online has learned. <br />
<br />
Although the US has raised allegations that China has supplied North Korea with technology for its missile program, the US itself would be under fire over having provided some help for North Korea's mobile missile technology, whether indirectly or not. <br />
<br />
Military experts around the world have pointed out the 16-wheeler transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) vehicle that transported North Korea's new missile in Pyongyang on April 15 appeared to very similar to the WS-51200, manufactured by the 9th Academy of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), also known as the Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Co Ltd. [1] This maker of special-purpose vehicles produces the WS series of TELs that are used to deploy the DF-11, DF-16 and DF-21 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles made by the CASIC, the large state-owned hi-tech enterprise under direct control of China's central government. <br />
<br />
<img alt="" src="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/images/kor230412a.gif" /> <br />
<img alt="" src="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/images/truck230412.gif" /><br />
<br />
"For the US, this is as if a ladder were taken off suddenly," Narushige Michishita, an associate professor of security and international studies at National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, told Asia Times Online. "Amid international frustration against China's stance against North Korea, the US seems to have aimed to take this opportunity to press hard on Beijing further. But it may now become difficult." <br />
<br />
According to the Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Co's website, the US diesel engine manufacturer Cummins Inc, listed on the New York Stock Exchange, provided its KTTA19-C700 diesel engine for the WS-51200. Meanwhile, German's ZF Friedrichshafen, one of the world's leading automotive industry suppliers specializing in driveline and chassis technologies, supplied its automatic transmission called WSK440+16S251 for the WS-51200. <br />
<br />
<b>Breach of UNSC resolutions?</b> <br />
Providing a TEL to Pyongyang would put the nation responsible in breach of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1874, which was adopted in June 2009 and prohibits supplying North Korea with "any arms or related materiel, or providing financial transactions, technical training, services or assistance related to such arms". <br />
<br />
The TEL would also have been banned under UNSC Resolution 1718, which was adopted in October 2006 in the aftermath of the North's first nuclear test in the same month. Those sanctions prohibit the import of any "vehicles designed or modified for the transport, handling, control, activation and launching" of "complete rocket systems (including ballistic missile systems, space launch vehicles and sounding rockets)". <br />
<br />
Apparently uninformed about a US diesel engine maker's indirect involvement in Chinese-made special-purpose vehicle WS-51200, US State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland on April 20 told reporters that the US raised the issue during ongoing talks with the Chinese government on North Korea. <br />
<br />
United States Defense Secretary Leon Panetta also said in US Congressional testimony on April 19 that he was "sure there has been some help coming from China. I don't know the exact extent of that ... but clearly there has been assistance along those lines". <br />
<br />
Panetta also said the US was concerned about "the mobile capabilities that were on display in the parade recently in North Korea. The bottom line is that if they have a mobile capability to have ICBMs [inter-continental ballistic missiles] deployed in that manner then that increases the threat from North Korea". <br />
<br />
The Chinese government has denied its involvement and sanctions-busting. Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin told a regular news briefing on April 19 that China was against the spread of weapons of mass destruction and carriers for such weapons. <br />
<br />
A Chinese company is suspected of providing components for a mobile missile platform showcased in a recent parade in North Korea, Reuters reported on Saturday quoting a US official. "The [Barack] Obama administration suspects the Chinese manufacturer sold the chassis - not the entire vehicle - and may have believed it was for civilian purposes, which means it would not be an intentional violation of UN sanctions," the news agency said. <br />
<br />
The US State Department said it believed Chinese assurances that it was adhering to UN sanctions. ''I think we take them at their word,'' spokesman Mark Toner told reporters on April 19. <br />
<br />
<b>Mystery of WS-51200</b> <br />
The WS-51200 resembles the vehicle that carried the North Korea's new missile, which was unveiled on 15 April at a parade in Pyongyang marking the centenary of founder Kim Il-sung's birth. <br />
<br />
It has a gross vehicle mass of 122 tons and it can carry a load of 80 tons. It measures 20.11 meters long, 3.35 meters wide, 3.35 meters high. The diameter of the tire is 1.6 meter. The length of that new missile on the vehicle is about 18 meter, bigger than North Korea's mobile intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) Musudan but smaller than its long-range missile Taepodong-2, which showed an unabashed failure of the rocket launch on April 13. <br />
<br />
Military experts around the world are now figuring out if this is a new type of <span style="color: red;">IRBM</span> or a new intercontinental ballistic missile(<span style="color: red;">ICBM</span>) or just a mock for a military parade, not real one. <br />
<br />
The CASIC announced in October 2010 that it had closed a contract to export WS-51200 with a certain nation, presumably North Korea, and that the amount of contact with that nation was 30 million yuan (US$4.75 million) including an advance payment of 12 million yuan. [2] <br />
<br />
Then, in May 2011 the CASIC also announced its subsidiary company successfully finished developing WS-51200. [3] <br />
<br />
The Mainichi Shimbun, a Japanese daily newspaper, on April 16 reported from Beijing that by citing intelligence community, Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle CO loaded four WS-51200 vehicles onto a ship with Cambodian nationality around August 2011. This ship headed for North Korea's Namp'o port, the newspaper said. <br />
<br />
<i><b>Notes</b></i> <br />
1. See <a href="http://www.wstech.com.cn/">here</a>. <br />
2. See <a href="http://www.casic.com.cn/n16/n1115/n2888/548509.html">here</a>. <br />
3. See <a href="http://www.sasac.gov.cn/n1180/n1226/n2410/n314319/13551197.html">here</a>. <br />
<br />
<i><b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke </i><br />
<br />
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-49174504289156916152012-04-20T23:15:00.005-07:002012-05-02T11:23:37.410-07:00(NHK) US raises China's alleged aid for N.Korea missile<div class="article" id="atclStd">
<div class="h">
<a href="http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120421_06.html" target="_blank">US raises China's alleged aid for N.Korea missile</a></div>
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The United States has raised allegations that China supplied North Korea with
technology for its missile program.<br />
<br />
State Department spokesperson
Victoria Nuland told reporters on Friday that the US raised the issue during
ongoing talks with the Chinese government on North Korea.<br />
<br />
US Defense
Secretary Leon Panetta has said China likely provided some help for North
Korea's mobile missile technology.<br />
<br />
His remark followed North Korea's
first public display of what appears to be an intercontinental ballistic missile
at a military parade in Pyongyang last Sunday.<br />
<br />
The vehicle that carried
the missile, which is also used as a launch pad, resembles a Chinese-made
special-purpose vehicle.<br />
<br />
The Chinese government has denied its
involvement.<br />
<br />
But defense experts say it is highly unlikely that weapons
technology is taken out of China without the consent of its top military
officials. They say China may have violated UN Security Council sanctions
banning the supply of weapons-related materials to North Korea.<br />
<br />
The US is
expected to take up the issue with Chinese leaders in the upcoming Strategic and
Economic Dialogue, scheduled to begin on May 3rd in Beijing.<br />
Saturday, April 21, 2012 10:25 +0900 (JST)</div>
</div>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-1332490124466719612012-04-20T11:58:00.002-07:002012-05-02T11:23:59.487-07:00(NHK) Panetta: China offered N.Korea missile technology<div class="article" id="atclStd">
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<img alt="Ãæ¹ñ ËÌīÁ¯¤˥ߥµ¥¤¥뵻½ѻٱ礫" id="news_image" src="http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20120420/K10045820711_1204200908_1204200914_01.jpg" style="background: no-repeat 0px 216px; padding: 0px 11px 42px 0px;" />
<br />
<a href="http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120420_08.html" target="_blank">Panetta: China offered N.Korea missile technology</a><br />
<br />
US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says China may have provided North Korea
with mobile missile technology.<br />
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Panetta made the remark on Thursday
during testimony before the House Armed Services Committee.<br />
<br />
North Korea
put a long-range ballistic missile on public display for the first time at a
military parade in Pyongyang last Sunday. Western experts say the vehicle that
carried the missile -- which is also used as a launch pad -- is the same as a
special-purpose vehicle developed by a Chinese company.<br />
<br />
Panetta said
China has provided some help with North Korea's technology, though he doesn't
know the exact extent. He said the matter should be discussed in a closed
session due to its high sensitivity.</div>
<br />
Panetta said the potential threat
from North Korea would be increased if the country has a mobile capability for
long-range ballistic missiles. He also revealed a plan to conduct a detailed
study.<br />
<br />
An online version of the British military magazine Jane's Defense
Weekly says if the transporter-launcher vehicle was Chinese-made, it raises the
possibility that China may have violated UN sanctions. Supplying North Korea
with weapons and vehicles that would help improve the country's missile
technology is banned under the sanctions.<br />
<br />
The weekly reported that a UN
committee of experts has begun an investigation.<br />
Friday, April 20, 2012 08:14 +0900 (JST)<br />
<br />
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<span class="time">(Financial Times)</span></div>
<div class="lastUpdated">
<span class="time">April 18, 2012 8:12 pm</span></div>
<h1>
<a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/69cdb5c0-88aa-11e1-a526-00144feab49a.html#axzz1sbkOv3cR" target="_blank">UN probes claim of China sanctions breach</a></h1>
<div class="byline ">
By Carola Hoyos, Defence Correspondent</div>
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<div class="fullstoryImage fullstoryImageHybrid article" style="width: 566px;">
<span class="story-image"><img alt="A North Korean vehicle carrying a missile passes by during a mass military parade" src="http://im.media.ft.com/content/images/e370c3ca-897e-11e1-85b6-00144feab49a.img" /><a class="credit" href="http://www.ft.com/servicestools/terms/associated-press">©AP</a></span></div>
UN officials are studying images of military equipment paraded by North Korea at the weekend after a tip-off that <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46b2c194-8444-11e1-9d54-00144feab49a.html" title="FT - North Korea admits missile failure">one of the new missile launchers</a> included significant Chinese technology that could put Beijing in breach of international sanctions against Pyongyang. <br />
<br />
The panel of experts that advises the UN Security Council’s sanctions committee, which is charged with monitoring compliance with UN resolutions passed in 2006 and 2009, is studying images of the transporter bearing a large new North Korean missile. The panel was alerted to the images by IHS Jane’s, the military analysts. <br />
<br />
In an email seen by the Financial Times, a senior UN official close to the committee states his intention to pass the matter to the expert panel. The secretive panel rarely makes its findings public and has only investigated two similar cases, according to a report leaked last year. South Korean officials are also said to be studying the images. <br />
<br />
Past parades and intelligence have revealed Iranian involvement in North Korea’s big weapons programmes but not that of China, which maintains it adheres to the sanctions regime. China is also integral to the diplomatic dialogue between Pyongyang, Washington, Japan, South Korea and Russia.<br />
<br />
Marcus Noland, deputy director at the Petersen Institute for International Economics and an expert on North Korea, said China would lose its veil of “honest broker” if Beijing was found to be passing on military equipment or knowhow to North Korea, in violation of resolutions it says it supports.<br />
<br />
“This would be really big, it really changes things. If China is seen to be violating Security Council sanctions by helping to militarise North Korea it puts China in a different light and changes the diplomatic relations between it and South Korea, Japan and the US,” he said.<br />
<br />
”It would also heat up the US presidential election with [the Republican candidate Mitt] Romney going after [President Barack] Obama for being weak on China.” <br />
<br />
The vehicle under examination is a transporter erector launcher, or TEL, which can carry, elevate to launch position and fire a missile. Some – though not all – analysts believe its main modifications are based on a design from the Ninth Academy of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, also known as the WoSang truck factory, which produces a series of TELs used to deploy short and medium-range ballistic missiles.<br />
<br />
If confirmed, China’s involvement could breach UN Security Council resolution 1874, which prohibits the supply to North Korea of “any arms or related material, or providing financial transactions, technical training, services, or assistance related to such arms”. <br />
<br />
However, the UN panel would have to show that the technology was passed to North Korea after the sanctions on big military equipment came into force in 2006. That could prove difficult unless the US, which has the world’s most sophisticated analysis capabilities, saw it in its interest to take up the issue.<br />
<br />
Though the UN’s sanction’s committee is made up of the members of the Security Council, which include the US and UK, neither the Pentagon nor the UK’s Ministry of Defence were willing to confirm their involvement. <br />
<br />
<em>Additional reporting by Christian Oliver in Seoul</em></div>
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</div>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-90848817026286335442012-04-19T01:58:00.001-07:002012-05-02T11:24:23.837-07:00(My latest for Asia Times) Tokyo eyes prime island real estate<span style="font-family: MS Pゴシック;"> <em>Territorial disputes are a devil. Once it gets up, nationalism flares up. People slip into victim mentality by imagining an economic disadvantage and feeling blasphemy against their own history. This creates a real risk of explosive conflicts erupting. </em></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: MS Pゴシック;"><em>The problem is that there are always those politicians who abuse territorial issues to boost their popularity by stirring up nationalism from all time periods and countries. Cheers, Kosuke</em></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<em><span style="font-family: MS Pゴシック;"><img alt="日中国交正常化40周年記念プレゼントに尖閣諸島" border="0" height="268" src="http://m.ruvr.ru/data/2012/04/18/1306230510/4highres_00000402354669.jpg" width="460" /> </span></em></div>
<em><span style="font-family: MS Pゴシック;"></span></em><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: MS Pゴシック;"><a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/ND20Dh01.html"><strong>Tokyo eyes prime island real
estate</strong></a><a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/ND20Dh01.html"></a><br />China has warned that controversial plans by Tokyo's
governor to buy three of the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea
threaten to cause another blow-up in bilateral ties. While Japan's government
has seemingly seconded Shintaro Ishihara's move with talk of "nationalizing" the
islands, called the Diaoyu by China, critics say he's merely drumming up
anti-Chinese sentiment. - <b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> <span style="color: #999999; font-size: xx-small;">(Apr 19, '12)</span></span><em><span style="font-family: MS Pゴシック;">
</span></em><br />
<br />
<strong><a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/ND20Dh01.html" target="_blank">Tokyo eyes prime island real estate</a></strong><br />
By Kosuke Takahashi <br />
<br />
TOKYO - Although this year marks the 40th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, storm clouds have gathered in the East China Sea. <br />
<br />
Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara, 79, a long-time hardline conservative who always calls China "Shina", a derogatory Japanese term, has said the Tokyo metropolitan government will buy three of the disputed Senkaku Islands, irritating Beijing. <br />
<br />
Ishihara is connected by marriage to former Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, who paid frequent visits to the Yasukuni shrine - which honors Japan's war dead, included convicted war criminals - which were strongly criticized by China and South Korea. <br />
<br />
Ishihara's surprising comments could dampen improving relations with China, which hit their lowest point in years in late 2010 in the wake of the arrest and eventual release of a Chinese fishing boat captain near the disputed Senkaku Islands (known by China as the Diaoyu Islands). <br />
<br />
While the Chinese government is still showing restraint in its response to the eccentric Japanese politician's behavior, current Sino-Japanese political ties could be tested further if Ishihara goes ahead with the planned purchase. <br />
<br />
"Tokyo will protect the Senkaku Islands, whatever other nations dislike," Ishihara said on Monday during his visit to Washington at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative US think-tank. "Who dares to complain about Japanese nationals trying to defend Japan's soil?" <br />
<br />
The disputed Senkaku Islands are about 400 kilometers from both Okinawa's main island and Fuzhou, capital of southeast China's Fujian province. Going by Japan's administrative boundary, the islands belong to Ishigaki city of Okinawa prefecture. <br />
<br />
The island chain consists of five uninhabited islands - Uotsurishima, Kita-Kojima, Minami-Kojima, Kubajima and Taishojima - plus a scattering of rocks nearby. Only Taishojima is owned by the Japanese government, while the other four islands are owned by Japanese citizens. <br />
<br />
The Japanese central government has rented Uotsurishima, Kita-Kojima and Minami-Kojima from their private owner since 2002 by paying 24.5 million yen (US$300,000) as an annual rental fee in order to maintain and control their stability. Kubajima and Taishojima were used as firing ranges by US armed forces. <br />
<br />
Both China and Taiwan started to claim sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands in the 1970s, after the United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East issued a report in 1969 indicating the possibility of abundant natural resources such as oil and gas reserves on the seabed around the islands. The area is a major fishing ground. <br />
<br />
Ishihara said the Tokyo metropolitan government had already reached a basic agreement with landowners on buying the three islands of Uotsurishima, Kita-Kojima and Minami-Kojima, adding, ''If we leave them as they are, we don't know what will happen to the islands.'' <br />
<br />
As if motivated by Ishihara's move, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda on Wednesday suggested that the central government would not rule out the possibility of buying the disputed Senkaku Islands from their current private owners. <br />
<br />
When asked at a Diet (parliament) session about the possibility of nationalizing the islands, Noda said, "We want to consider every option while fully ascertaining the intentions of the current owners." <br />
<br />
China has warned that Ishihara's plan would not only harm Japan's ties with China, but also its international standing. <br />
<br />
"We do not wish such statements in Japan to encroach on China's sovereignty and harm China-Japan ties," Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin told a regular news briefing. "A few politicians have repeatedly made such statements. I believe they not only damage the overall state of China-Japan relations but also harm Japan's international image." China is Japan's largest trading partner. <br />
<br />
Unlike in the 2010 Senkaku boat collision incident, China still seems to avoid overacting because doing so could play into the hands of nationalistic Ishihara. <br />
<br />
Ishihara also drew anger among Taiwanese, with the island's Foreign Ministry issuing a protest against Ishihara's intention to buy the islands. <br />
<br />
"The Tiaoyutais are the inherent territory of the Republic of China and we have sovereignty over them," Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman James Chang said. In Taiwan, the islands are called the Tiaoyutais. <br />
<br />
Ishihara's comments also caused bewilderment among political circles in Tokyo. <br />
<br />
"Ishihara's plan has no reality," a lawmaker who served as a deputy chief cabinet secretary and a vice minister in recent administrations told Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity. "If diplomatic and security problems occur in the wake of Tokyo's purchase of those islands, what can Tokyo do actually? I think he just floated a trial balloon to see the public reaction."<br />
<br />
"Ishihara is really a troublemaker," political analyst Minoru Morita told Asia Times Online. "He wants to gain popularity by stirring up anti-Chinese feeling among Japanese people. This is just childish politics." <br />
<br />
"The Japanese media just genuflect before Ishihara," Morita said. "Instead of criticizing him, the media are stirring up nationalism." <br />
<br />
According to Morita, Ishihara is now confronted with a hopeless situation in bidding for the 2020 Summer Olympic Games for Tokyo after the lavish and unsuccessful campaigns by Ishihara regarding Tokyo's bid for the 2016 Olympics. <br />
<br />
"By fanning Beijing's flames of ire, Ishihara aims to blame China for his mistake on the Olympics," Morita said. <br />
<br />
In the whirlwind of international politics, domestic politics do matter. With the popularity of the ruling the Democracy Party of Japan declining in the run-up to general elections, which must be held by the end of August 2013, Ishihara is reportedly willing to return to national politics. He is widely believed to head a new political party in the near future. Many seasoned lawmakers seem ready to move to join that party. <br />
<br />
He also has developed a personal collaborative relationship with Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, who heads Osaka Ishin no Kai, or the Osaka Restoration Association, the Japanese version of the US Tea Party . <br />
<br />
Ukeru Magosaki, the former chief of the Japanese Foreign Ministry's international intelligence bureau, also criticized the Tokyo governor. <br />
<br />
Magosaki wrote in his book on Japanese territorial issues that both Chinese and Japanese national leaders such as Deng Xiaoping had shelved the territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands wisely. <br />
<br />
"Japan currently controls and administers the islands," Magosaki said. "There is no need for Japan to rock the boat." <br />
<br />
<i><b>Kosuke Takahashi</b> is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke </i><br />
<br />
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-90367688255679457402012-04-16T23:10:00.003-07:002012-05-02T11:23:14.119-07:00(JDW) Images suggest North Korea using Chinese TEL for new missile<h2>
<upperbody>ASIA PACIFIC <div align="right">
Date Posted: 16-Apr-2012 </div>
<br />
<center> Jane's Defence Weekly </center><br />
<hr />
</upperbody></h2>
<h2>
Images suggest North Korea using Chinese TEL for new missile</h2>
<strong>Ted Parsons</strong><i> JDW Correspondent</i><br />
Washington, DC<br />
<br />
Additional reporting by<br />
<b>James Hardy</b><i> Asia-Pacific Editor</i><br />
London<br />
<upperbody></upperbody><br />
<h2>
<table bgcolor="#ebebeb" border="1" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr><td><h3>
Key Points</h3>
<ul>
<li>Images taken in Pyongyang on 15 April suggest that North Korea's new missile is transported by a transporter-erector-launcher of Chinese design </li>
<li>If this is confirmed, the TEL would be in breach of UN sanctions designed to prevent weapons proliferation by North Korea</li>
</ul>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</h2>
Images suggest that China has either sold the design or manufactured the transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) vehicle for the three-stage missile that North Korea unveiled on 15 April at a parade in Pyongyang marking the centenary of founder Kim Il-sung's birth.<br />
<br />
The presence of the TEL in Pyongyang questions the efficacy of the international effort to contain and reverse Pyongyang's nuclear weapons threat.<br />
<br />
North Korea revealed its new ballistic missile two days after its Unha-3 satellite launch vehicle was destroyed shortly after launching from the Sohae Launch Station in the country's northwest. The new missile's size and design suggests it could have a range of 5,000-6,000 km.<br />
<br />
<h2>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr><td class="med_arial" valign="top">The 16-wheel TEL is apparently based on a design from the 9th Academy of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), also known as the WoSang truck factory, which produces the WS series of TELs that are used to deploy CASIC's DF-11, DF-16 and DF-21 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtbKoDBvboNBHe3ygdFCOR8zVWp7dXO4A2C1yPhos_W0J5ZQq-XM1YblxiuPeVWt4k5Omz8SoDZDB0JJQWx47o-e8TvKOF6JPEk0rWTtwpAYNKE-MWGe3sfnqzXljXWP0-hJUpbTm6Xddv/s1600/nkmissiletel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtbKoDBvboNBHe3ygdFCOR8zVWp7dXO4A2C1yPhos_W0J5ZQq-XM1YblxiuPeVWt4k5Omz8SoDZDB0JJQWx47o-e8TvKOF6JPEk0rWTtwpAYNKE-MWGe3sfnqzXljXWP0-hJUpbTm6Xddv/s320/nkmissiletel.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH7KhSVhiRH7dmAuU90GVAVWFV7uQtEHdzvvwzFymRjqh-tUUG8M1V8UUnu8FuPxUoibA1-x-JDlwOrwdhemJ6ufw2a4_f9EU3tI0ajj5x3KJQNkxiyQ5XhnS1JhuWDYHxFRiyCJ1myZmz/s1600/p1391078.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH7KhSVhiRH7dmAuU90GVAVWFV7uQtEHdzvvwzFymRjqh-tUUG8M1V8UUnu8FuPxUoibA1-x-JDlwOrwdhemJ6ufw2a4_f9EU3tI0ajj5x3KJQNkxiyQ5XhnS1JhuWDYHxFRiyCJ1myZmz/s320/p1391078.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Images of the WS2600 from a CASIC brochure indicate that the two TELs have the same windscreen design; the same four windscreen wiper configuration; the same door and handle design; a very similar grille area; almost the same front bumper lighting configuration; and the same design for the cabin steps. <br />
<br />
CASIC's involvement in North Korea's missile programme would require approval from the highest levels of the Chinese government and the People's Liberation Army. As the TEL design would require intimate knowledge of the new missile, there is also the possibility that Chinese entities have been involved in additional design and manufacturing aspects of it too. <br />
<br />
The possibility that China is involved in North Korea's development of a new long-range missile might undermine international efforts to counter Pyongyang's nuclear and missile development: it also challenges Beijing's repeated assertions that China opposes North Korea's development of nuclear missiles, and that the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party is exercising responsible leadership to arrest the development of North Korea's nuclear weapons programme. <br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><td bgcolor="#ebebeb"><b>COMMENT</b></td></tr>
<tr><td>The possibility that China is supporting North Korea's strategic weapons programme complicates international efforts to negotiate with North Korea and could fatally undermine the six-party talks, which are hosted by China and are built on the premise that there is a unanimous desire to prevent the North from developing a nuclear capability. <br />
<br />
Finally, China's involvement in providing this erector-launcher to North Korea would put it in breach of UN Security Council Resolution 1874, which prohibits supplying North Korea with 'any arms or related materiel, or providing financial transactions, technical training, services, or assistance related to such arms'. </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<hr />
<table border="0"><tbody>
<tr><td align="left">Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2012</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<img alt="" src="http://secure-us.imrworldwide.com/cgi-bin/m?ci=us-bpaww&cg=0&cc=1" /></div>
</td><td width="15"><img alt="" height="1" src="http://jdw.janes.com/public/images/pix.gif" width="15" /></td></tr>
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</h2>Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1229078481568059429.post-88667331763421543962012-04-16T08:20:00.001-07:002012-05-02T11:24:55.984-07:00Regarding DPRK's new missile, there is a growing possibility of China’s involvement in providing this erector-launcher to North Korea, breaching UN Security Council resolution 1874<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibYcljKa23MhdGJucTnhyphenhyphenXfUIcl9ZqUtHX7AZoVPNlsnjsW7iZXcvO01rSrO4y-uwFLKN27TKh0yixF6Qd2pzkjTN71tsLaHe3UtgXDzY0QLxqZFWFE7eNvgZtZUxLOjSONai2Kz2P-xRq/s1600/nkmissiletel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibYcljKa23MhdGJucTnhyphenhyphenXfUIcl9ZqUtHX7AZoVPNlsnjsW7iZXcvO01rSrO4y-uwFLKN27TKh0yixF6Qd2pzkjTN71tsLaHe3UtgXDzY0QLxqZFWFE7eNvgZtZUxLOjSONai2Kz2P-xRq/s320/nkmissiletel.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Regarding DPRK's new missile, there is a growing possibility of China’s involvement in providing this <u>transporter-erector-launcher</u>(TEL) to North Korea, breaching UN Security Council resolution 1874. </span><br />
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<u><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The transporter-erector-launcher
(TEL) vehicle that was carrying the new missile spotted over the weekend is
Chinese by design and possibly origin</span></u><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">. As below… “<b><i><u>If confirmed,</u></i></b><u>
China’s involvement in providing this erector-launcher to North Korea would put
it in breach of UN Security Council resolution 1874…</u>” Please note we
say “<b><u>if confirmed</u></b>”.</span> </span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US">1) Two experts available to answer questions: </span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Symbol;">·</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><span lang="EN-US">James Hardy, Asia Pacific Editor, IHS Jane’s Defence
Weekly (in Europe right now)</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Symbol;">·</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><span lang="EN-US">Kosuke Takahashi, Tokyo Correspondent, IHS Jane’s
Defence Weekly (in Asia right now) </span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US">2) Analysis available for quote now: </span></b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US">Ted Parsons, correspondent, IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, says:</span></b><span lang="EN-US"> “The 16-wheel TEL is apparently based on a design from the 9th
Academy of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), also
known as the <a href="http://www.wstech.com.cn/en/show.asp?id=734" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: medium;">WanShan</span></a> truck factory, which produces the WS series of TELs that
are used to deploy CASIC’s DF-11, DF-16 and DF-21 short- and medium-range
ballistic missiles. The CASIC and North Korean TELs have the same windscreen
design; the same four windscreen wiper configuration; the same door and handle
design; a very similar grill area; almost the same front bumper lighting
configuration; and the same design for the cabin steps. CASIC's involvement in
North Korea's missile programme would require approval from the highest levels
of the Chinese government and the People’s Liberation Army.”</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3eKViMH4WgFiFn1b5319cmTrptOBxalXApbKfYUyDtkhKMsC5Q9DdHF6BMQyQC6ri1JwoGkSMQIewsFud8Ch3m8baV19ex7epFKupNpPmFg4D5gMYOl3HAwDPQKI4083CqmsOQq4EECuC/s1600/newmissile.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3eKViMH4WgFiFn1b5319cmTrptOBxalXApbKfYUyDtkhKMsC5Q9DdHF6BMQyQC6ri1JwoGkSMQIewsFud8Ch3m8baV19ex7epFKupNpPmFg4D5gMYOl3HAwDPQKI4083CqmsOQq4EECuC/s320/newmissile.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://www.wstech.com.cn/en/show.asp?id=734" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi94pPnyQEpAgQbu_yEOJZciol7T0wiQXQkSjODiJYs1_KSqn_XU8j5S4FA8Xv_JgpalnTp7hoBrUKX6wkFlO4cVbbmmebBAMRXlVCkaSUnSWif4Ts1y9qpDEwSSaBmxBgb2KsVRfYhXJPN/s320/WS51200%25201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">James Hardy, Asia Pacific Editor,
IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly,</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> said: “<b>If confirmed, China’s involvement in providing this
erector-launcher to North Korea would put it in breach of UN Security Council
resolution 1874, which prohibits supplying North Korea with ‘any arms or
related materiel, or providing financial transactions, technical training,
services, or assistance related to such arms’.</b> <b>The possibility that
China is supporting North Korea’s strategic weapons programme complicates
international efforts to negotiate with North Korea and could fatally undermine
the six-party talks, which are hosted by China and are built on the premise
that there is a unanimous desire to prevent the North from developing a nuclear
capability.” </b></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><b><span lang="EN-US">Doug Richardson’s, Editor, IHS Jane’s Missiles and Rockets, comments: </span></b><span lang="EN-US">“There is no obvious 'way in' to understanding it and estimating its performance. Right now, we don't even have a reliable estimate of the size, let alone evidence of whether it uses liquid or solid propellant. And we face the conundrum that like the earlier Musudan mobile missile, this beast seems to exist in quantity without ever having been test-flown either in North Korea or in Iran.”</span></span></div>
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<br />Kosuke Takahashi (高橋浩祐)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13783865053516285781noreply@blogger.com0