I've written a feature story on Japan's defense, which was published by Jane's Defence Weekly magazine in UK this week. My story is the cover story. Cheers, Kosuke
Japan's new dawn
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
My story on Japan's defence becomes this week's cover story of Jane's Defence Weekly
I've written a feature story on Japan's defense, which was published by Jane's Defence Weekly magazine in UK this week. My story is the cover story. Cheers, Kosuke
Japan's new dawn
Sunday, November 15, 2009
My recent story for Asia Times Online
Special thanks to Patrick Cronin-san, Michael O'Hanlon-san and Toshiyuki Shikata-san.
Japan: A new battle over Okinawa
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - United States President Barack Obama lands in Tokyo on Friday on the first stop of his maiden trip to Asia, but a less than 24 hours visit may not be enough to change public opinion in the country.
In Japan, it's often said you can gauge social undercurrents by looking at advertising billboards on trains, as they mirror society. "Don't cave in to the threat of the US!" says one such advert for a popular Japanese weekly magazine, currently hung in crowded commuter trains in Tokyo.
The name of the magazine is Shukan Asahi, it has denounced as high-handed the US government's approach to the long-standing, thorny issue of the relocation of the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa prefecture.
The magazine cites a "warning" made by US Defense Secretary Robert Gates during a visit to Tokyo last month: that unless the heliport functions of the Futenma facility were moved by 2014 to a coastal area in the marines' Camp Schwab located in the less densely populated city of Nago, northern Okinawa - as agreed in the 2006 bilateral pact on the realignment of US forces - the transfer of around 8,000 US Marines from Okinawa to the US Pacific territory of Guam would not occur.
Recently, US heavyweights such as Richard Lawless, former deputy under secretary of defense, have also appeared frequently in Japanese media to reiterate Gates' warning .
Tensions over the US troops stationed on the island, which have simmered since three US servicemen were convicted for the rape of a 12-year-old girl in Okinawa in 1995, are again on the rise .
Despite the sweltering heat, about 21,000 Japanese gathered on Sunday on the island to demand that the base in Futenma be moved off the island. The demonstration was triggered by a deadly hit-and-run incident involving a US serviceman. Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has backed demands that the serviceman detained over the alleged crime, which killed a 66-year-old Okinawan man, be handed over to Japanese justice.
A joint poll conducted by the Ryukyu Shimpo and the Mainichi Shimbun on October 30 and November 1 found that 69.7% of Okinawans said the Hatoyama administration should renegotiate with the US about plans to move the Futenma base out of the prefecture, or even the country. The poll also showed that 67% of respondents opposed relocation to Camp Schwab.
The long-running relocation dispute over Futenma is rocking the foundations of the Japan-US relationship, just ahead of next year's 50th anniversary of the 1960 Mutual Security Treaty between the countries.
"Much of the punditry in the media would have us believe that Japan and the US were on the verge of a breakup over where to relocate 60 marine helicopters," Patrick Cronin, a senior adviser and director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, told Asia Times Online in an e-mail interview. "Yet durable alliances are based on common interests, not simply disagreements over means."
"As difficult an issue as the relocation of Futenma Marine Air Station has been, the salient question is whether next year's half-centenary celebration of the 1960 Mutual Security Treaty will mark the end of the alliance as we know it or the beginning of the alliance we both need for the 21st century," Cronin added.
During the Japan-US summit, the relocation of the base in Okinawa will not be a major item on the agenda. Obama is widely expected to stress relations with Japan as a "cornerstone" of US foreign policy, seeking re-engagement with Tokyo's new administration.
Obama and Hatoyama are expected to re-affirm cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 - without mentioning any specific base year for calculation, or Japan's consideration for the US, one of the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, along with China. They will also renew their determination to create a world without nuclear weapons.
Japan's new dawn
As Hatoyama's new administration undertakes a thorough review of Japan's alliance with the US, one which is likely to raise concern in Washington, Japan-American relations face a fundamental political change.
Hatoyama and his center-left Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) unseated the pro-US Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a House of Representatives election on August 30, ending the LDP's near-perpetual one party rule of the past half century.
Nonetheless, the LDP appears to have finally completed its historical mission in the post-Cold War era - supporting Japan's military role as an anti-communist bastion of the US against China and Russia.
The US "nuclear umbrella" has protected Japan against potential adversaries such as China, North Korea and Russia, while assuring other states in the region that suffered under Japan's colonial rule that Tokyo would not return to its militaristic past.
Due to the US nuclear deterrent, Japan has enjoyed a generally stable strategic outlook, with its population wary of major change and militarization since the end of World War II, a legacy of the US atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Previous LDP governments have mainly focused on national interests and on economic growth.
The era of Japan's strong pacifism, as enshrined in the US-imposed "peace constitution", determined the posture and structure of Japan's military forces to defend the nation and made the security alliance with the US the centerpiece of Japanese security policy in the post-war period.
"The [Harry S] Truman and [Dwight D] Eisenhower administrations saw a resurgent Japanese economy as the engine of growth in the Asia-Pacific region," Cronin said. "Providing an unsinkable aircraft carrier in exchange for Japan's economic revival was a deliberate political choice made by Washington and Tokyo based on their vital interests at the time of the original 1951 treaty."
During the 2001 to 2006 Junichiro Koizumi administration, a symbol of Japan's reformist policy, Japan aimed to strengthen bilateral military and security ties with the US - a drive reinforced by China's military buildup, North Korea's nuclear crisis and the global threat of terrorism.
The US-Japan security alliance under former US president George W Bush and Koizumi is often referred to as a "golden era" between the two countries. Koizumi deployed Japan Ground Self-Defense Forces (JGSDF) units to Iraq to contribute to America's war against terrorism.
The new leaders in Tokyo still regard US strike capabilities and the nuclear deterrence provided by the US as essential for Japan's overall security - as well as for peace and security in the region - but they do not necessarily see it as essential for the nation's economic development. Enormous economic growth in East Asia - especially in China, which is a 1.3 billion consumer market - is changing the structure of worldwide and regional business and industry.
Hatoyama has called for an East Asian "community" to develop to the extent that it resembles an Asian version of the European Union. He also advocates a common Asian currency as a natural extension of the rapid economic growth in the region. Hatoyama aims to conduct a swift shift in Tokyo's axis of cooperation towards other Asian nations.
The DPJ, the dominant party in the ruling coalition led by Hatoyama, has advocated policies of multilateral cooperation while calling for a more equal partnership with the US. The DPJ has often refused to support US policies, most notably the war in Iraq, and has criticized post-war Japanese diplomatic policy as "toeing the US line".
Japan's newly elected government was voted into office on a platform of curtailing the US military presence on Okinawa, where 75% of all US forces in Japan are located. In an Upper House question-and-answer session on October 29, Hatoyama said the review of Japan's alliance with the US would be "comprehensive". He later told reporters that it would cover Japanese funding of US bases, the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and the relocation of the Futenma station.
Hatoyama said his government was exploring the possibility of reducing Japan's host-nation spending on US military bases. This so-called "sympathy budget" began in 1978 and covers utilities and other expenses.
The allocation for fiscal year 2009 comes to 189.7 billion yen (US$2.1 billion). With government debt expected to reach 187% of gross domestic product this year, foremost among major economies, Tokyo no longer wants to outlay the large sums of money it currently pays to support US military forces in Japan. This fiscal restraint also places a limit how much it can spend to modernize its Self Defense Forces (SDF) domestically.
The SOFA, which governs US military operations in Japan and legal arrangements for its personnel, has not been revised for nearly half a century. A group of governors representing prefectures that host military facilities, such as the Okinawa and Kanagawa prefectures, have called for a clause covering environmental pollution and destruction at US military bases in Japan.
In terms of the relocation of Futenma, the prime minister said "various options" would be considered. The government inherited the 2006 Japan-US agreement that calls for relocating the base within Okinawa, but Hatoyama has indicated that he will seek to relocate the air station outside of Okinawa, possibly even outside Japan.
Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada has floated the idea of merging Futenma's heliport functions with the nearby Kadena Air Base - the largest US military base in the Far East.
"It is possible, I believe, to merge operations at Kadena - for normal day-to-day circumstances," Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, where he specializes in US national security policy, told Asia Times Online. "But in that event, we need much better preparation for crisis operations, including greater access to SDF and even civilian airfields on Okinawa [and preparations in advance at those sites]."
Under US pressure, Japan has also announced it will spend as much as $5 billion over the next five years to help with the reconstruction of war-torn Afghanistan.
"The majority of the Japanese won't accept that Afghan aid," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online. "Historically, Alexander the Great, the British Empire and the Soviet Union all failed to conquer Afghanistan. The US, as an oceanic state, will have further difficulties to control Afghan, which is just surrounded by mountainous areas and lands. It's not cost-effective for the US."
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Japan: A new battle over Okinawa
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - United States President Barack Obama lands in Tokyo on Friday on the first stop of his maiden trip to Asia, but a less than 24 hours visit may not be enough to change public opinion in the country.
In Japan, it's often said you can gauge social undercurrents by looking at advertising billboards on trains, as they mirror society. "Don't cave in to the threat of the US!" says one such advert for a popular Japanese weekly magazine, currently hung in crowded commuter trains in Tokyo.
The name of the magazine is Shukan Asahi, it has denounced as high-handed the US government's approach to the long-standing, thorny issue of the relocation of the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa prefecture.
The magazine cites a "warning" made by US Defense Secretary Robert Gates during a visit to Tokyo last month: that unless the heliport functions of the Futenma facility were moved by 2014 to a coastal area in the marines' Camp Schwab located in the less densely populated city of Nago, northern Okinawa - as agreed in the 2006 bilateral pact on the realignment of US forces - the transfer of around 8,000 US Marines from Okinawa to the US Pacific territory of Guam would not occur.
Recently, US heavyweights such as Richard Lawless, former deputy under secretary of defense, have also appeared frequently in Japanese media to reiterate Gates' warning .
Tensions over the US troops stationed on the island, which have simmered since three US servicemen were convicted for the rape of a 12-year-old girl in Okinawa in 1995, are again on the rise .
Despite the sweltering heat, about 21,000 Japanese gathered on Sunday on the island to demand that the base in Futenma be moved off the island. The demonstration was triggered by a deadly hit-and-run incident involving a US serviceman. Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has backed demands that the serviceman detained over the alleged crime, which killed a 66-year-old Okinawan man, be handed over to Japanese justice.
A joint poll conducted by the Ryukyu Shimpo and the Mainichi Shimbun on October 30 and November 1 found that 69.7% of Okinawans said the Hatoyama administration should renegotiate with the US about plans to move the Futenma base out of the prefecture, or even the country. The poll also showed that 67% of respondents opposed relocation to Camp Schwab.
The long-running relocation dispute over Futenma is rocking the foundations of the Japan-US relationship, just ahead of next year's 50th anniversary of the 1960 Mutual Security Treaty between the countries.
"Much of the punditry in the media would have us believe that Japan and the US were on the verge of a breakup over where to relocate 60 marine helicopters," Patrick Cronin, a senior adviser and director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, told Asia Times Online in an e-mail interview. "Yet durable alliances are based on common interests, not simply disagreements over means."
"As difficult an issue as the relocation of Futenma Marine Air Station has been, the salient question is whether next year's half-centenary celebration of the 1960 Mutual Security Treaty will mark the end of the alliance as we know it or the beginning of the alliance we both need for the 21st century," Cronin added.
During the Japan-US summit, the relocation of the base in Okinawa will not be a major item on the agenda. Obama is widely expected to stress relations with Japan as a "cornerstone" of US foreign policy, seeking re-engagement with Tokyo's new administration.
Obama and Hatoyama are expected to re-affirm cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 - without mentioning any specific base year for calculation, or Japan's consideration for the US, one of the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, along with China. They will also renew their determination to create a world without nuclear weapons.
Japan's new dawn
As Hatoyama's new administration undertakes a thorough review of Japan's alliance with the US, one which is likely to raise concern in Washington, Japan-American relations face a fundamental political change.
Hatoyama and his center-left Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) unseated the pro-US Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a House of Representatives election on August 30, ending the LDP's near-perpetual one party rule of the past half century.
Nonetheless, the LDP appears to have finally completed its historical mission in the post-Cold War era - supporting Japan's military role as an anti-communist bastion of the US against China and Russia.
The US "nuclear umbrella" has protected Japan against potential adversaries such as China, North Korea and Russia, while assuring other states in the region that suffered under Japan's colonial rule that Tokyo would not return to its militaristic past.
Due to the US nuclear deterrent, Japan has enjoyed a generally stable strategic outlook, with its population wary of major change and militarization since the end of World War II, a legacy of the US atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Previous LDP governments have mainly focused on national interests and on economic growth.
The era of Japan's strong pacifism, as enshrined in the US-imposed "peace constitution", determined the posture and structure of Japan's military forces to defend the nation and made the security alliance with the US the centerpiece of Japanese security policy in the post-war period.
"The [Harry S] Truman and [Dwight D] Eisenhower administrations saw a resurgent Japanese economy as the engine of growth in the Asia-Pacific region," Cronin said. "Providing an unsinkable aircraft carrier in exchange for Japan's economic revival was a deliberate political choice made by Washington and Tokyo based on their vital interests at the time of the original 1951 treaty."
During the 2001 to 2006 Junichiro Koizumi administration, a symbol of Japan's reformist policy, Japan aimed to strengthen bilateral military and security ties with the US - a drive reinforced by China's military buildup, North Korea's nuclear crisis and the global threat of terrorism.
The US-Japan security alliance under former US president George W Bush and Koizumi is often referred to as a "golden era" between the two countries. Koizumi deployed Japan Ground Self-Defense Forces (JGSDF) units to Iraq to contribute to America's war against terrorism.
The new leaders in Tokyo still regard US strike capabilities and the nuclear deterrence provided by the US as essential for Japan's overall security - as well as for peace and security in the region - but they do not necessarily see it as essential for the nation's economic development. Enormous economic growth in East Asia - especially in China, which is a 1.3 billion consumer market - is changing the structure of worldwide and regional business and industry.
Hatoyama has called for an East Asian "community" to develop to the extent that it resembles an Asian version of the European Union. He also advocates a common Asian currency as a natural extension of the rapid economic growth in the region. Hatoyama aims to conduct a swift shift in Tokyo's axis of cooperation towards other Asian nations.
The DPJ, the dominant party in the ruling coalition led by Hatoyama, has advocated policies of multilateral cooperation while calling for a more equal partnership with the US. The DPJ has often refused to support US policies, most notably the war in Iraq, and has criticized post-war Japanese diplomatic policy as "toeing the US line".
Japan's newly elected government was voted into office on a platform of curtailing the US military presence on Okinawa, where 75% of all US forces in Japan are located. In an Upper House question-and-answer session on October 29, Hatoyama said the review of Japan's alliance with the US would be "comprehensive". He later told reporters that it would cover Japanese funding of US bases, the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and the relocation of the Futenma station.
Hatoyama said his government was exploring the possibility of reducing Japan's host-nation spending on US military bases. This so-called "sympathy budget" began in 1978 and covers utilities and other expenses.
The allocation for fiscal year 2009 comes to 189.7 billion yen (US$2.1 billion). With government debt expected to reach 187% of gross domestic product this year, foremost among major economies, Tokyo no longer wants to outlay the large sums of money it currently pays to support US military forces in Japan. This fiscal restraint also places a limit how much it can spend to modernize its Self Defense Forces (SDF) domestically.
The SOFA, which governs US military operations in Japan and legal arrangements for its personnel, has not been revised for nearly half a century. A group of governors representing prefectures that host military facilities, such as the Okinawa and Kanagawa prefectures, have called for a clause covering environmental pollution and destruction at US military bases in Japan.
In terms of the relocation of Futenma, the prime minister said "various options" would be considered. The government inherited the 2006 Japan-US agreement that calls for relocating the base within Okinawa, but Hatoyama has indicated that he will seek to relocate the air station outside of Okinawa, possibly even outside Japan.
Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada has floated the idea of merging Futenma's heliport functions with the nearby Kadena Air Base - the largest US military base in the Far East.
"It is possible, I believe, to merge operations at Kadena - for normal day-to-day circumstances," Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, where he specializes in US national security policy, told Asia Times Online. "But in that event, we need much better preparation for crisis operations, including greater access to SDF and even civilian airfields on Okinawa [and preparations in advance at those sites]."
Under US pressure, Japan has also announced it will spend as much as $5 billion over the next five years to help with the reconstruction of war-torn Afghanistan.
"The majority of the Japanese won't accept that Afghan aid," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online. "Historically, Alexander the Great, the British Empire and the Soviet Union all failed to conquer Afghanistan. The US, as an oceanic state, will have further difficulties to control Afghan, which is just surrounded by mountainous areas and lands. It's not cost-effective for the US."
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Thursday, November 5, 2009
My story on the yakuza published by Jane's Intelligence Review
Non-Subscriber Extract
Capital punishment - Japan's yakuza vie for control of Tokyo
04 November 2009
Although Japan's economy may now be exiting recession, the country's criminal groups are continuing to suffer from the impact of falling criminal revenues, leading them to come into competition. Gang-related violence is rising in Japan, with two of the country's long-established criminal yakuza groups coming into territorial conflict. In March 2008 Hiroshige Suzuki, a gang member affiliated to the Yamiguchi-gumi group, was stabbed to death in Yashio city, near Tokyo. The following day, Atsushi Suzuki, affiliated to the Sumiyoshi-kai group, was shot dead in nearby Fujimino city, as part of what police suspect to have been a clash between the two powerful groups.
The Sumiyoshi-kai, traditionally based in and around Tokyo, is under pressure owing to a number of different factors. The country's economic downturn is squeezing the Sumiyoshi-kai's sources of revenue, such as the real estate sector or financial services. In addition, the group is still recovering from the imposition of counter-criminal legislation in 1992, which for the first time defined the yakuza in law and made it easier for the authorities to crack down on their criminal activities.
180 of 2867 words
Copyright © IHS (Global) Limited, 2009
End of non-subscriber extract
Capital punishment - Japan's yakuza vie for control of Tokyo
04 November 2009
Although Japan's economy may now be exiting recession, the country's criminal groups are continuing to suffer from the impact of falling criminal revenues, leading them to come into competition. Gang-related violence is rising in Japan, with two of the country's long-established criminal yakuza groups coming into territorial conflict. In March 2008 Hiroshige Suzuki, a gang member affiliated to the Yamiguchi-gumi group, was stabbed to death in Yashio city, near Tokyo. The following day, Atsushi Suzuki, affiliated to the Sumiyoshi-kai group, was shot dead in nearby Fujimino city, as part of what police suspect to have been a clash between the two powerful groups.
The Sumiyoshi-kai, traditionally based in and around Tokyo, is under pressure owing to a number of different factors. The country's economic downturn is squeezing the Sumiyoshi-kai's sources of revenue, such as the real estate sector or financial services. In addition, the group is still recovering from the imposition of counter-criminal legislation in 1992, which for the first time defined the yakuza in law and made it easier for the authorities to crack down on their criminal activities.
180 of 2867 words
Copyright © IHS (Global) Limited, 2009
End of non-subscriber extract
Sunday, September 6, 2009
I told you so...
I wrote this at the beginning of 2009. This is what is happening at the moment across the Pacific, a tug-of-war between Japan and the US.
Japan gets a feel for Asian integration
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - If you believe Japan will always be an unswerving "lap dog" of the United States, then 2009 may bring a rude awakening. This year could be the beginning of Tokyo's swift shift in its axis of cooperation toward other Asian nations. Early signs are already beginning to show.
More than 130 years ago, the great Japanese philosopher Yukichi Fukuzawa - whose portrait adorns 10,000 yen bills - put forward the idea of disassociating Japan from dormant Asia and integrating with the West to protect its independence. The notion of "Leave Asia and enter the West" proposed by the samurai-turned-scholar became the spiritual and intellectual foundation of modern Japan.
Japan then stood in Fukuzawa's symbolic shadow for more than a century - discriminating against and underestimating the rest of Asia. First, the Japanese Imperial Army invaded large swaths of the region. Then, in the post-World War II period, right-leaning Japanese politicians, especially in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), often humiliated formerly occupied countries by alternately denying and justifying its wartime atrocities.
Now, with Japan plunging into trade deficits and facing startling rises in unemployment and suicides, the West-leaning philosophy is proving detrimental. This is especially true of the single-track Japan-US alliance. Tokyo needs to diversify diplomatic and economic relations - and soon.
Japan's population of more than 120 million is at a critical stage. The nation's recession is deepening and economic growth is expected to slow further. Long-term demographic trends indicate a rapidly aging society that is producing fewer children.
Japanese intellectuals are worried about Japan's marginalization in future global competition. With that concern in mind, this year could be a chance for Japan to regain diplomatic diversity, especially as the US president-elect Barack Obama advocates international cooperation over the unilateralism characterized by the George W Bush administration.
A highly possible change of government in national elections - from the ruling LDP to the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) - would also accelerate such a move. The DPJ has advocated policies of multilateral cooperation while calling for a more equal partnership with the US. The DPJ has often refused to support US policies, notably on the war in Iraq.
Moreover, with the financial crisis triggered by the collapse of America's "casino capitalism", Japanese politicians and intellectuals are increasingly looking to the East Asian Community (EAC) - a proposed economic and political bloc equivalent to the European Union. This potential grouping is aimed at deepening economic ties and addressing problems with food, energy and the environment. It would definitely broaden Asia's influence in the world and protect its members from external economic shockwaves.
"Asia will continue to be an epicenter of world growth in the 21st century and will be modernizing further," Kazuo Mizuno, chief economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co in Tokyo, told Asia Times Online. "With more middle-class people emerging in Asia, Japan should target them as end-consumers."
Economic upheaval is shaking American hegemony in many quarters of the globe. In Japan, many believe "Pax Americana", backed by US capitalism, the US dollar-based international monetary system and so-called Washington Consensus policies, has already reached its end. If not, some believe, the US will soon lack the financial resources to maintain it.
According to a New York Times report, Obama warned on Tuesday that the US faced the prospect of "trillion-dollar deficits for years to come, even with the economic recovery that we are working on". He also said he was troubled by the staggering $1 trillion figure, adding: "I'm going to be willing to make some very difficult choices on how we get a handle on this deficit."
Pressure is building for Japan - as well as China and South Korea - to accelerate the integration of Asia. In an epoch-making event on December 13, the leaders of the three nations held their first-ever three-way summit in Fukuoka, Japan. The summit signals a new phase of cooperation between the North-East Asian neighbors.
East Asia's three biggest economies are now showing a united front to counter the adverse effects of global financial turmoil. They are now calling for enhanced "regional cooperation" and stressing the need for strengthening the "surveillance mechanism" to monitor regional financial markets. Japan and China expanded credit lines for currency agreements with South Korea, where Seoul is struggling to shore up the buffeted Korean won.
Leaders of the three countries hadn't held such a formal summit since the aftermath of World War II. In fact, regional relations have mostly been tense. Old animosities between Japan and China, and Japan and South Korea, were inflamed by former Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine memorializing Japan's war dead. There have also been divisive sovereignty disputes in the East China Sea.
But business-oriented leaders in the region are now looking beyond the old wounds. The three nations now account for nearly 17% of the world's economic output and almost 75% of the Asian economy.
East Asia unites
According to Eiji Yamashita, an economics professor at Osaka City University, even before today's global financial crisis, the integration of Asia had been accelerated by two previous regional economic crises.
The first was the sharp increase in foreign direct investment to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries by Japanese firms. This corresponded with the sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen after the Plaza Accord in 1985, Yamashita told The Council on East Asian Community (CEAC) in late November. This triggered the creation of cross-border production networks in East Asia, which closely connected different stages of production in manufacturing industries. Yamashita said this informal economic integration was now an invaluable asset to the regional economy.
The second was the Asian financial crisis of 1997 which propelled the formal integration of Asia, according to Yamashita. The Chiang Mai Initiative of May 2000 - a move to create a network of bilateral currency swap arrangements among ASEAN and Japan, China and South Korea (ASEAN+3) - ushered in a new stage of integration, Yamashita said.
According to Yamashita, the momentum for Asian integration has been slowed since 2005 with two regional frameworks - the ASEAN+3 and the East Asia Summit (EAS) comprising 16 countries, including India, Australia and New Zealand - dissipating its importance.
Japan has advocated the idea of the EAS while China has supported the expansion of the ASEAN+3. The result has been a leadership struggle between the region's two largest economies.
"It is expected that the current crisis will put an end to this stagnation period and the momentum will be regained for the regional integration of Asia," Yamashita said. "The last thing the Japanese government should do is, of course, impede this move in the right direction."
The social and cultural integration of China, Japan and Korea trade is also developing rapidly, especially among the young. A new catchphrase in East Asia translates to "Let's feel Japan."
Post-war Japanese diplomatic policy has been often described as "toeing the US line". But the current economic crisis is bringing about a sea-change in the world order.
Japan's efforts to establish the East Asian Community by reconciling with Asian neighbors could lead to regional peace and security. The US, which spiked Japan's proposal during the 1997 economic crisis for an Asian Monetary Fund, should not hamper Tokyo's efforts to build an Asian community. That is, if Washington really wants to increase prosperity in East Asia.
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Japan gets a feel for Asian integration
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - If you believe Japan will always be an unswerving "lap dog" of the United States, then 2009 may bring a rude awakening. This year could be the beginning of Tokyo's swift shift in its axis of cooperation toward other Asian nations. Early signs are already beginning to show.
More than 130 years ago, the great Japanese philosopher Yukichi Fukuzawa - whose portrait adorns 10,000 yen bills - put forward the idea of disassociating Japan from dormant Asia and integrating with the West to protect its independence. The notion of "Leave Asia and enter the West" proposed by the samurai-turned-scholar became the spiritual and intellectual foundation of modern Japan.
Japan then stood in Fukuzawa's symbolic shadow for more than a century - discriminating against and underestimating the rest of Asia. First, the Japanese Imperial Army invaded large swaths of the region. Then, in the post-World War II period, right-leaning Japanese politicians, especially in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), often humiliated formerly occupied countries by alternately denying and justifying its wartime atrocities.
Now, with Japan plunging into trade deficits and facing startling rises in unemployment and suicides, the West-leaning philosophy is proving detrimental. This is especially true of the single-track Japan-US alliance. Tokyo needs to diversify diplomatic and economic relations - and soon.
Japan's population of more than 120 million is at a critical stage. The nation's recession is deepening and economic growth is expected to slow further. Long-term demographic trends indicate a rapidly aging society that is producing fewer children.
Japanese intellectuals are worried about Japan's marginalization in future global competition. With that concern in mind, this year could be a chance for Japan to regain diplomatic diversity, especially as the US president-elect Barack Obama advocates international cooperation over the unilateralism characterized by the George W Bush administration.
A highly possible change of government in national elections - from the ruling LDP to the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) - would also accelerate such a move. The DPJ has advocated policies of multilateral cooperation while calling for a more equal partnership with the US. The DPJ has often refused to support US policies, notably on the war in Iraq.
Moreover, with the financial crisis triggered by the collapse of America's "casino capitalism", Japanese politicians and intellectuals are increasingly looking to the East Asian Community (EAC) - a proposed economic and political bloc equivalent to the European Union. This potential grouping is aimed at deepening economic ties and addressing problems with food, energy and the environment. It would definitely broaden Asia's influence in the world and protect its members from external economic shockwaves.
"Asia will continue to be an epicenter of world growth in the 21st century and will be modernizing further," Kazuo Mizuno, chief economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co in Tokyo, told Asia Times Online. "With more middle-class people emerging in Asia, Japan should target them as end-consumers."
Economic upheaval is shaking American hegemony in many quarters of the globe. In Japan, many believe "Pax Americana", backed by US capitalism, the US dollar-based international monetary system and so-called Washington Consensus policies, has already reached its end. If not, some believe, the US will soon lack the financial resources to maintain it.
According to a New York Times report, Obama warned on Tuesday that the US faced the prospect of "trillion-dollar deficits for years to come, even with the economic recovery that we are working on". He also said he was troubled by the staggering $1 trillion figure, adding: "I'm going to be willing to make some very difficult choices on how we get a handle on this deficit."
Pressure is building for Japan - as well as China and South Korea - to accelerate the integration of Asia. In an epoch-making event on December 13, the leaders of the three nations held their first-ever three-way summit in Fukuoka, Japan. The summit signals a new phase of cooperation between the North-East Asian neighbors.
East Asia's three biggest economies are now showing a united front to counter the adverse effects of global financial turmoil. They are now calling for enhanced "regional cooperation" and stressing the need for strengthening the "surveillance mechanism" to monitor regional financial markets. Japan and China expanded credit lines for currency agreements with South Korea, where Seoul is struggling to shore up the buffeted Korean won.
Leaders of the three countries hadn't held such a formal summit since the aftermath of World War II. In fact, regional relations have mostly been tense. Old animosities between Japan and China, and Japan and South Korea, were inflamed by former Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine memorializing Japan's war dead. There have also been divisive sovereignty disputes in the East China Sea.
But business-oriented leaders in the region are now looking beyond the old wounds. The three nations now account for nearly 17% of the world's economic output and almost 75% of the Asian economy.
East Asia unites
According to Eiji Yamashita, an economics professor at Osaka City University, even before today's global financial crisis, the integration of Asia had been accelerated by two previous regional economic crises.
The first was the sharp increase in foreign direct investment to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries by Japanese firms. This corresponded with the sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen after the Plaza Accord in 1985, Yamashita told The Council on East Asian Community (CEAC) in late November. This triggered the creation of cross-border production networks in East Asia, which closely connected different stages of production in manufacturing industries. Yamashita said this informal economic integration was now an invaluable asset to the regional economy.
The second was the Asian financial crisis of 1997 which propelled the formal integration of Asia, according to Yamashita. The Chiang Mai Initiative of May 2000 - a move to create a network of bilateral currency swap arrangements among ASEAN and Japan, China and South Korea (ASEAN+3) - ushered in a new stage of integration, Yamashita said.
According to Yamashita, the momentum for Asian integration has been slowed since 2005 with two regional frameworks - the ASEAN+3 and the East Asia Summit (EAS) comprising 16 countries, including India, Australia and New Zealand - dissipating its importance.
Japan has advocated the idea of the EAS while China has supported the expansion of the ASEAN+3. The result has been a leadership struggle between the region's two largest economies.
"It is expected that the current crisis will put an end to this stagnation period and the momentum will be regained for the regional integration of Asia," Yamashita said. "The last thing the Japanese government should do is, of course, impede this move in the right direction."
The social and cultural integration of China, Japan and Korea trade is also developing rapidly, especially among the young. A new catchphrase in East Asia translates to "Let's feel Japan."
Post-war Japanese diplomatic policy has been often described as "toeing the US line". But the current economic crisis is bringing about a sea-change in the world order.
Japan's efforts to establish the East Asian Community by reconciling with Asian neighbors could lead to regional peace and security. The US, which spiked Japan's proposal during the 1997 economic crisis for an Asian Monetary Fund, should not hamper Tokyo's efforts to build an Asian community. That is, if Washington really wants to increase prosperity in East Asia.
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Friday, August 28, 2009
My most recent story for Asia Times Online: Japan on the brink of a new era
Japan on the brink of a new era
Japan's election this weekend pits Prime Minister Taro Aso against Yukio Hatoyama, a battle of blue-bloods replicating a struggle between their grandfathers. Hatoyama's anticipated thumping victory will end the one-party domination of the Liberal Democratic Party. Hatoyama, described as "stubborn, decisive and bold", will need these traits and more to deliver on his promises of change through his mantra of fraternity. - Kosuke Takahashi (Aug 28, '09)
Japan on the brink of a new era
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - History sometimes throws up wonderful ironies: in Japan, a rising grandson is about to destroy his grandfather's legacy.
With opinion polls suggesting a massive victory for his opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in Sunday's general election, Yukio Hatoyama is poised to become the next prime minister, replacing Taro Aso. This would mark a fundamental change of power in the country, ending the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP's) near-perpetual one-party dominance since Hatoyama's grandfather Ichiro created the LDP in 1955.
The number 320 is the key for this election. Should the DPJ secure a more than two-thirds majority, or 320 seats out of the 480 up for election, it would enable the DPJ to enact any legislation rejected by the Upper House, where the party still lacks a single-party majority. This Sunday, a total of 1,374 candidates will vie for the 480 Lower House seats - 300 for single-seat districts and 180 for proportional-representation constituencies.
In the final stage of the campaign, the Asahi Shimbun on Thursday reported that the DPJ was likely to win more than 320 seats, up from the 115 seats the party had before the Lower House was dissolved on July 21. The ruling LDP, meanwhile, is likely to suffer a crushing defeat by only securing about 100 seats, far from its pre-election strength of 300, the newspaper said, based on its most recent survey.
Figures published on Friday worsened the LDP's bleak outlook. The unemployment rate rose to an all-time post-war high of 5.7% in July, according to the government, while deflation intensified and families cut spending.
"The DPJ is highly likely to gain more than 320 seats," Minoru Morita, a noted political analyst in Tokyo, told Asia Times Online. "But I do not think the DPJ will railroad legislation through the Lower House forcibly, by using their two-third majority [to override Upper House decisions]."
Blue-blood politician
The 177-centimeter-tall Hatoyama, 62, conjures up an image of silk stockings and silver spoons among the Japanese public. He is a scion of the country's wealthiest and most politically influential family, which has been nicknamed "Japan's Kennedys" by local media.
Hatoyama is a fourth-generation politician. His paternal great-grandfather Kazuo was speaker of the House of Representatives of Japan's Diet (parliament) from 1896 to 1897 in the Meiji era. Subsequently, Kazuo also served as vice minister of foreign affairs and as president of Waseda University, one of Japan's top universities.
Yukio's paternal grandfather Ichiro was three times prime minister between 1954 and 1956, and a founder and the first president of the ruling LDP. In 1951, he restored diplomatic ties with the Soviet Union and enabled Japan to become a United Nations member, his earnest political ambition before retirement.
His father Iichiro is a former vice minister of finance and a former foreign minister. His younger brother Kunio is a LDP Lower House member and served as an internal affairs and communications minister under the current Taro Aso administration until June 2009.
Moreover, Hatoyama's maternal grandfather was the late Shojiro Ishibashi, founder of Bridgestone Corp, the world's largest tiremaker, headquartered in Tokyo. Bridgestone was named after Ishibashi; In Japanese, ishi means a "stone", and bashi(/hashi), a "bridge".
Hatoyama's mother Yasuko, 86, is called "Godmother" in Japan's political circles, as she has provided significant sums of money inherited from her father Shojiro Ishibashi to help her two sons pursue their political ambitions, especially when they created the DPJ in 1996 by donating several billions of yen. Younger brother Kunio subsequently returned to the LDP as he felt the Democrats had moved too far left from its centrist roots, while Yukio remained a major figure in the DPJ.
"Traditionally, the Hatoyama family introduces much permissiveness into children's upbringing," Morita said. "That's why Yukio and Kunio have totally different characters."
The Hatoyama family is related to three former prime ministers: Ichiro Hatoyama, Hayato Ikeda, who advocated the "income-doubling plan" in the 1960s, and Kiichi Miyazawa, who served as premier from 1991 to 1993. Yukio Hatoyama owns about 8.6 billion yen (US$91.9 million) as personal assets, according to the monthly literary magazine Bungei Shunju published on August 10. He has 3.5 million shares of Bridgestone, which amounts to about 6 billion yen, according to the October 2008 financial disclosure regarding Diet members' salaries set forth by law.
Battle of the grandsons
This strong political advantage provided by the famous Hatoyama family pedigree is equivalent to that of Aso, who is related to seven former prime ministers, including his grandfather Shigeru Yoshida, Japan's first post-World War II prime minister.
Many political observers point out that the crucial battle taking place between Aso's LDP and Hatoyama's DJP in this weekend's poll replicates that of their grandfathers Shigeru Yoshida and Ichiro Hatoyama, who led the two strong conservative groups during the immediate post-war years of Japan. That is, their descendants' battle from different sides of the party political system: Aso for the conservative LDP that has dominated Japanese politics for more than half a century, and Hatoyama for the reformist DPJ.
Right after the end of World War II, Yoshida was able to hold a firm political foundation for a stable government because the US-led General Headquarters of the Allied Forces (GHQ) in 1946 purged then-powerful political leader Ichiro Hatoyama, who formed the Liberal Party in August of 1945. Five years later, Hatoyama was welcomed back by the GHQ, and in 1954 he regained control of the government by ousting prime minister Yoshida.
Yoshida gained the favor of powerful bureaucrats, while Ichiro strived to make policy-making based on leadership by politicians. This is the same pattern as today. Yukio Hatoyama promises to abolish the institution of the so-called amakudari (descent from heaven), which has provided a means for government regulators to move down from their ministries into top positions in the industries that they formerly regulated. Aso has appeared unwilling to do so.
Political rise
Yukio Hatoyama graduated from the University of Tokyo in 1969 and received a PhD in engineering from Stanford University in the United States in 1976. He was first elected to the Lower House in 1986 as a LDP member after being an assistant professor of the department of business administration at Senshu University. He left the LDP following the 1993 general elections, which saw the party lose its overall majority for the first time since 1955. This prompted various members to break away from the LDP and form new political parties, such as the New Party Sakigake, in which Hatoyama became one of the founding members.
He served as vice chief cabinet secretary in the cabinet of Morihiro Hosokawa (1993-94), whose coalition government, including the New Party Sakigake, toppled the LDP from nearly four decades of power. In the DPJ, Hatoyama won the party's presidency in September 1999, but resigned in December 2002 amid confusion over a forthcoming merger with the Liberal Party, led by Ichiro Ozawa.
The merger in 2003 temporarily sidelined Hatoyama, but in September 2004, after eight months as shadow minister for internal affairs, he became shadow minister of foreign affairs and secretary general of the party once again. In the May 2009 elections to the leadership, Hatoyama initially appeared an unlikely victor, with his only rival, 55-year-old vice president Katsuya Okada, providing a more youthful image, and less tainted by association with Ozawa. However, Hatoyama was elected president just months before a crucial general election.
Hatoyama can be very stubborn, decisive and bold, author Eiji Oshita wrote in a book about the Hatoyama family published in 2000, The ambition of splendid Hatoyama family.
"He has had the disastrous experience of serving in key party posts such as secretary general," Tetsuro Fukuyama, an Upper House member of the DPJ and the current deputy policy chief told Asia Times Online. "He became very tough."
It's well known that Hatoyama has a happy married life - he is wed to Miyuki, 65. He met her while studying at Stanford University. It was a stolen love. He once told a women's magazine, "In my case, I happened to fall in love with someone else's wife and ended up marrying her." Miyuki is a former star actress of a popular all-woman dance troupe in Japan. He said in the interview that the circumstances in which he met and married Miyuki made him renounce his old way of life and decide to become a politician. Hatoyama has one son, Kiichiro, 33, a visiting researcher at Moscow State University.
Man of the people
Despite his wealth and privilege, Hatoyama is trying to position himself politically as a man of the people ahead of the election, for example, by often talking about weakening the culture of hereditary politicians in Japan, which is in his party's election manifesto. Yet when Hatoyama speaks Japanese, he invokes particular honorifics that most people seldom use in their daily lives, highlighting his prestigious upbringing.
Hatoyama says he aims to implement the political philosophy of European integrationist Count Coudenhove-Kalergi. In an essay in the September edition of the monthly magazine Voice published August 10, Hatoyama said the philosophy of yuai or "fraternity", translated by his grandfather Ichiro, from Coudenhove-Kalergi's writings, is his policy platform, which is geared towards weakening Japan's bureaucracy and rejecting the US-led global capitalism that brought about the economic crisis.
With the motto of yuai, Hatoyama says he hopes to leave behind parochial nationalism and jingoism and instead further develop the East Asian Community to the extent that it resembles an Asian version of the European Union. He also advocates a common Asian currency as a natural extension of the rapid economic growth in the region.
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
(The New York Times) A New Path for Japan By Yukio Hatoyama
August 27, 2009
Op-Ed Contributor
A New Path for Japan
By YUKIO HATOYAMA
TOKYO — In the post-Cold War period, Japan has been continually buffeted by the winds of market fundamentalism in a U.S.-led movement that is more usually called globalization. In the fundamentalist pursuit of capitalism people are treated not as an end but as a means. Consequently, human dignity is lost.
How can we put an end to unrestrained market fundamentalism and financial capitalism, that are void of morals or moderation, in order to protect the finances and livelihoods of our citizens? That is the issue we are now facing.
In these times, we must return to the idea of fraternity — as in the French slogan “liberté, égalité, fraternité” — as a force for moderating the danger inherent within freedom.
Fraternity as I mean it can be described as a principle that aims to adjust to the excesses of the current globalized brand of capitalism and accommodate the local economic practices that have been fostered through our traditions.
The recent economic crisis resulted from a way of thinking based on the idea that American-style free-market economics represents a universal and ideal economic order, and that all countries should modify the traditions and regulations governing their economies in line with global (or rather American) standards.
In Japan, opinion was divided on how far the trend toward globalization should go. Some advocated the active embrace of globalism and leaving everything up to the dictates of the market. Others favored a more reticent approach, believing that efforts should be made to expand the social safety net and protect our traditional economic activities. Since the administration of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (2001-2006), the Liberal Democratic Party has stressed the former, while we in the Democratic Party of Japan have tended toward the latter position.
The economic order in any country is built up over long years and reflects the influence of traditions, habits and national lifestyles. But globalism has progressed without any regard for non-economic values, or for environmental issues or problems of resource restriction.
If we look back on the changes in Japanese society since the end of the Cold War, I believe it is no exaggeration to say that the global economy has damaged traditional economic activities and destroyed local communities.
In terms of market theory, people are simply personnel expenses. But in the real world people support the fabric of the local community and are the physical embodiment of its lifestyle, traditions and culture. An individual gains respect as a person by acquiring a job and a role within the local community and being able to maintain his family’s livelihood.
Under the principle of fraternity, we would not implement policies that leave areas relating to human lives and safety — such as agriculture, the environment and medicine — to the mercy of globalism.
Our responsibility as politicians is to refocus our attention on those non-economic values that have been thrown aside by the march of globalism. We must work on policies that regenerate the ties that bring people together, that take greater account of nature and the environment, that rebuild welfare and medical systems, that provide better education and child-rearing support, and that address wealth disparities.
Another national goal that emerges from the concept of fraternity is the creation of an East Asian community. Of course, the Japan-U.S. security pact will continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy.
But at the same time, we must not forget our identity as a nation located in Asia. I believe that the East Asian region, which is showing increasing vitality, must be recognized as Japan’s basic sphere of being. So we must continue to build frameworks for stable economic cooperation and security across the region.
The financial crisis has suggested to many that the era of U.S. unilateralism may come to an end. It has also raised doubts about the permanence of the dollar as the key global currency.
I also feel that as a result of the failure of the Iraq war and the financial crisis, the era of U.S.-led globalism is coming to an end and that we are moving toward an era of multipolarity. But at present no one country is ready to replace the United States as the dominant country. Nor is there a currency ready to replace the dollar as the world’s key currency. Although the influence of the U.S. is declining, it will remain the world’s leading military and economic power for the next two to three decades.
Current developments show clearly that China will become one of the world’s leading economic nations while also continuing to expand its military power. The size of China’s economy will surpass that of Japan in the not-too-distant future.
How should Japan maintain its political and economic independence and protect its national interest when caught between the United States, which is fighting to retain its position as the world’s dominant power, and China, which is seeking ways to become dominant?
This is a question of concern not only to Japan but also to the small and medium-sized nations in Asia. They want the military power of the U.S. to function effectively for the stability of the region but want to restrain U.S. political and economic excesses. They also want to reduce the military threat posed by our neighbor China while ensuring that China’s expanding economy develops in an orderly fashion. These are major factors accelerating regional integration.
Today, as the supranational political and economic philosophies of Marxism and globalism have, for better or for worse, stagnated, nationalism is once again starting to have a major influence in various countries.
As we seek to build new structures for international cooperation, we must overcome excessive nationalism and go down a path toward rule-based economic cooperation and security.
Unlike Europe, the countries of this region differ in size, development stage and political system, so economic integration cannot be achieved over the short term. However, we should nonetheless aspire to move toward regional currency integration as a natural extension of the rapid economic growth begun by Japan, followed by South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong, and then achieved by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China. We must spare no effort to build the permanent security frameworks essential to underpinning currency integration.
Establishing a common Asian currency will likely take more than 10 years. For such a single currency to bring about political integration will surely take longer still.
ASEAN, Japan, China (including Hong Kong), South Korea and Taiwan now account for one quarter of the world’s gross domestic product. The economic power of the East Asian region and the interdependent relationships within the region have grown wider and deeper. So the structures required for the formation of a regional economic bloc are already in place.
On the other hand, due to historical and cultural conflicts as well as conflicting national security interests, we must recognize that there are numerous difficult political issues. The problems of increased militarization and territorial disputes cannot be resolved by bilateral negotiations between, for example, Japan and South Korea, or Japan and China. The more these problems are discussed bilaterally, the greater the risk that emotions become inflamed and nationalism intensified.
Therefore, I would suggest, somewhat paradoxically, that the issues that stand in the way of regional integration can only be truly resolved by moving toward greater integration. The experience of the E.U. shows us how regional integration can defuse territorial disputes.
I believe that regional integration and collective security is the path we should follow toward realizing the principles of pacifism and multilateral cooperation advocated by the Japanese Constitution. It is also the appropriate path for protecting Japan’s political and economic independence and pursuing our interests in our position between the United States and China.
Let me conclude by quoting the words of Count Coudenhove-Kalergi, founder of the first popular movement for a united Europe, written 85 years ago in “Pan-Europa” (my grandfather, Ichiro Hatoyama, translated his book, “The Totalitarian State Against Man,” into Japanese): “All great historical ideas started as a utopian dream and ended with reality. Whether a particular idea remains as a utopian dream or becomes a reality depends on the number of people who believe in the ideal and their ability to act upon it.”
Yukio Hatoyama heads the Democratic Party of Japan, and would become prime minister should the party win in Sunday’s elections. A longer version of this article appears in the September issue of the monthly Japanese journal Voice.
Tribune Media Services
Op-Ed Contributor
A New Path for Japan
By YUKIO HATOYAMA
TOKYO — In the post-Cold War period, Japan has been continually buffeted by the winds of market fundamentalism in a U.S.-led movement that is more usually called globalization. In the fundamentalist pursuit of capitalism people are treated not as an end but as a means. Consequently, human dignity is lost.
How can we put an end to unrestrained market fundamentalism and financial capitalism, that are void of morals or moderation, in order to protect the finances and livelihoods of our citizens? That is the issue we are now facing.
In these times, we must return to the idea of fraternity — as in the French slogan “liberté, égalité, fraternité” — as a force for moderating the danger inherent within freedom.
Fraternity as I mean it can be described as a principle that aims to adjust to the excesses of the current globalized brand of capitalism and accommodate the local economic practices that have been fostered through our traditions.
The recent economic crisis resulted from a way of thinking based on the idea that American-style free-market economics represents a universal and ideal economic order, and that all countries should modify the traditions and regulations governing their economies in line with global (or rather American) standards.
In Japan, opinion was divided on how far the trend toward globalization should go. Some advocated the active embrace of globalism and leaving everything up to the dictates of the market. Others favored a more reticent approach, believing that efforts should be made to expand the social safety net and protect our traditional economic activities. Since the administration of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (2001-2006), the Liberal Democratic Party has stressed the former, while we in the Democratic Party of Japan have tended toward the latter position.
The economic order in any country is built up over long years and reflects the influence of traditions, habits and national lifestyles. But globalism has progressed without any regard for non-economic values, or for environmental issues or problems of resource restriction.
If we look back on the changes in Japanese society since the end of the Cold War, I believe it is no exaggeration to say that the global economy has damaged traditional economic activities and destroyed local communities.
In terms of market theory, people are simply personnel expenses. But in the real world people support the fabric of the local community and are the physical embodiment of its lifestyle, traditions and culture. An individual gains respect as a person by acquiring a job and a role within the local community and being able to maintain his family’s livelihood.
Under the principle of fraternity, we would not implement policies that leave areas relating to human lives and safety — such as agriculture, the environment and medicine — to the mercy of globalism.
Our responsibility as politicians is to refocus our attention on those non-economic values that have been thrown aside by the march of globalism. We must work on policies that regenerate the ties that bring people together, that take greater account of nature and the environment, that rebuild welfare and medical systems, that provide better education and child-rearing support, and that address wealth disparities.
Another national goal that emerges from the concept of fraternity is the creation of an East Asian community. Of course, the Japan-U.S. security pact will continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy.
But at the same time, we must not forget our identity as a nation located in Asia. I believe that the East Asian region, which is showing increasing vitality, must be recognized as Japan’s basic sphere of being. So we must continue to build frameworks for stable economic cooperation and security across the region.
The financial crisis has suggested to many that the era of U.S. unilateralism may come to an end. It has also raised doubts about the permanence of the dollar as the key global currency.
I also feel that as a result of the failure of the Iraq war and the financial crisis, the era of U.S.-led globalism is coming to an end and that we are moving toward an era of multipolarity. But at present no one country is ready to replace the United States as the dominant country. Nor is there a currency ready to replace the dollar as the world’s key currency. Although the influence of the U.S. is declining, it will remain the world’s leading military and economic power for the next two to three decades.
Current developments show clearly that China will become one of the world’s leading economic nations while also continuing to expand its military power. The size of China’s economy will surpass that of Japan in the not-too-distant future.
How should Japan maintain its political and economic independence and protect its national interest when caught between the United States, which is fighting to retain its position as the world’s dominant power, and China, which is seeking ways to become dominant?
This is a question of concern not only to Japan but also to the small and medium-sized nations in Asia. They want the military power of the U.S. to function effectively for the stability of the region but want to restrain U.S. political and economic excesses. They also want to reduce the military threat posed by our neighbor China while ensuring that China’s expanding economy develops in an orderly fashion. These are major factors accelerating regional integration.
Today, as the supranational political and economic philosophies of Marxism and globalism have, for better or for worse, stagnated, nationalism is once again starting to have a major influence in various countries.
As we seek to build new structures for international cooperation, we must overcome excessive nationalism and go down a path toward rule-based economic cooperation and security.
Unlike Europe, the countries of this region differ in size, development stage and political system, so economic integration cannot be achieved over the short term. However, we should nonetheless aspire to move toward regional currency integration as a natural extension of the rapid economic growth begun by Japan, followed by South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong, and then achieved by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China. We must spare no effort to build the permanent security frameworks essential to underpinning currency integration.
Establishing a common Asian currency will likely take more than 10 years. For such a single currency to bring about political integration will surely take longer still.
ASEAN, Japan, China (including Hong Kong), South Korea and Taiwan now account for one quarter of the world’s gross domestic product. The economic power of the East Asian region and the interdependent relationships within the region have grown wider and deeper. So the structures required for the formation of a regional economic bloc are already in place.
On the other hand, due to historical and cultural conflicts as well as conflicting national security interests, we must recognize that there are numerous difficult political issues. The problems of increased militarization and territorial disputes cannot be resolved by bilateral negotiations between, for example, Japan and South Korea, or Japan and China. The more these problems are discussed bilaterally, the greater the risk that emotions become inflamed and nationalism intensified.
Therefore, I would suggest, somewhat paradoxically, that the issues that stand in the way of regional integration can only be truly resolved by moving toward greater integration. The experience of the E.U. shows us how regional integration can defuse territorial disputes.
I believe that regional integration and collective security is the path we should follow toward realizing the principles of pacifism and multilateral cooperation advocated by the Japanese Constitution. It is also the appropriate path for protecting Japan’s political and economic independence and pursuing our interests in our position between the United States and China.
Let me conclude by quoting the words of Count Coudenhove-Kalergi, founder of the first popular movement for a united Europe, written 85 years ago in “Pan-Europa” (my grandfather, Ichiro Hatoyama, translated his book, “The Totalitarian State Against Man,” into Japanese): “All great historical ideas started as a utopian dream and ended with reality. Whether a particular idea remains as a utopian dream or becomes a reality depends on the number of people who believe in the ideal and their ability to act upon it.”
Yukio Hatoyama heads the Democratic Party of Japan, and would become prime minister should the party win in Sunday’s elections. A longer version of this article appears in the September issue of the monthly Japanese journal Voice.
Tribune Media Services
Saturday, August 15, 2009
[Viewpoint] Success, but at what cost?
From JoongAng Ilbo(中央日報) of South Korea.
[Viewpoint] Success, but at what cost?
by Bruce Klingner
Bill Clinton’s mission to Pyongyang will send mixed signals to other rogue regimes and perhaps even undermine UN sanctions.
August 15, 2009
It would be heartless not to welcome the release of two U.S. hostages from North Korea’s malevolent clutches. Pyongyang’s imposition of a sentence of 12 years of hard labor on journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee for trespassing into North Korea was an egregiously disproportionate response. All hope for their full and speedy recovery from their ordeal.
That said, there are serious concerns for the safety of North Korean and Chinese sources that the two journalists may have compromised during their ill-advised jaunt. The reporters were captured with videotapes, photographs and notebooks that could lead to the identification, arrest and execution of North Korean refugees and those assisting them.
A BBC interview with a member of a nongovernmental organization along the China-North Korea border claimed that the journalists “didn’t cover the faces of the North Koreans they interviewed.” There are also indications that Chinese authorities have resumed crackdowns on North Korean refugees in northeast China due to the publicity generated by their capture.
Former President Bill Clinton’s trip to North Korea to retrieve the journalists has been criticized as negotiating with terrorists and rewarding bad behavior. But far more important than these issues are the signals that were inadvertently sent and the precedents that may have been established for future negotiations.
The Obama administration has made the proper and requisite comments that Clinton’s visit was an unofficial humanitarian mission that was firmly separated from the nuclear issue. Yet, despite best efforts not to send a signal, the Obama administration sent several.
First, Clinton’s trip will be perceived as tacit U.S. acceptance of North Korea’s belligerent behavior. It will also reinforce North Korean perceptions that their strategy of alternating brinkmanship with seemingly conciliatory gestures remains effective. Barely four months after North Korea violated UN resolutions by testing a long-range missile and exploding a nuclear device, the U.S. acquiesced to Pyongyang’s demand to send a former president to meet with Kim Jong-il. Clinton’s visit signals to Iran, Syria, Myanmar and other rogue regimes that a country can disregard the UN and eventually be rewarded.
Clinton’s presence is particularly symbolic since it completes North Korea’s trifecta goal of having the leaders of the great powers come to Pyongyang to pay homage to Kim Jong-il. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Jiang Zemin traveled to Pyongyang in 2000 and 2001, respectively. Clinton had been on the verge of agreeing to a summit in Pyongyang at the end of his presidency in 2000.
Second, the trip to Pyongyang will be interpreted as a policy reversal by the Obama administration, namely an abandonment of the hard-line policy of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in favor of a return to the engagement policy of President Bill Clinton. It raises questions as to what other policy changes might ensue, such as accepting North Korea as a nuclear state or a less vigorous U.S. enforcement of financial sanctions. Or do the apparently conflicting North Korea policy signals reflect a divided administration reminiscent of the warring factions of the Bush administration?
Third, the visit suggests the Obama administration is resorting to high-level bilateral dialogue to resolve U.S. concerns at the expense of insisting upon multilateral negotiations to address issues of import to South Korea and Japan. Despite U.S. reassurances, the allies remain wary that Washington will diplomatically finesse previously sacrosanct preconditions in order to entice Pyongyang back to the negotiating table.
Already U.S. and South Korean pundits are claiming that the release of the journalists was a diplomatic breakthrough indicative of a more benevolent and accommodating North Korea. Media articles have advocated responding to the North Korean gesture with a reciprocal U.S. concession and a softening of UN sanctions.
There have even been suggestions for a return to musical diplomacy by allowing the Pyongyang Symphony Orchestra to play in New York. Last year’s performance of the New York Philharmonic in North Korea was naively described as a “16-inch broadside of soft power into the hearts and minds of the North Korean people.”
North Korea had several objectives for seeking a visit by Bill Clinton. First, it provided the opportunity to show that Kim Jong-il is healthy and remains in control. Second, Pyongyang signaled it was willing to continue nuclear negotiations, albeit bilaterally with the U.S. and under North Korean conditions. Third, by showing that high-level dialogue was successful, Pyongyang sought to lay the groundwork for a future summit meeting with President Obama.
Fourth, the regime sought to mitigate the effectiveness of UN sanctions by undermining international consensus on their need. Fifth, releasing the U.S. prisoners would increase domestic criticism of President Lee Myung-bak for failing to secure the freedom of South Korean abductees.
The Obama administration should not allow itself to be pressured into abandoning international punitive measures levied in response to North Korean violations of UN resolutions. To be effective, the UN sanctions require firm implementation by many nations. However, some countries may now question the utility of pressuring North Korea when the U.S. is willing to dispatch a former president to conduct deals.
The U.S. should continue to insist on North Korea’s complete compliance with UN resolutions as well as its commitment to its six-party talks pledges to completely and verifiably abandon its nuclear weapons programs.
The inherent danger is that North Korea will continue to develop its nuclear weapons and missile-delivery capabilities.
*The writer is senior research fellow for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.
[Viewpoint] Success, but at what cost?
by Bruce Klingner
Bill Clinton’s mission to Pyongyang will send mixed signals to other rogue regimes and perhaps even undermine UN sanctions.
August 15, 2009
It would be heartless not to welcome the release of two U.S. hostages from North Korea’s malevolent clutches. Pyongyang’s imposition of a sentence of 12 years of hard labor on journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee for trespassing into North Korea was an egregiously disproportionate response. All hope for their full and speedy recovery from their ordeal.
That said, there are serious concerns for the safety of North Korean and Chinese sources that the two journalists may have compromised during their ill-advised jaunt. The reporters were captured with videotapes, photographs and notebooks that could lead to the identification, arrest and execution of North Korean refugees and those assisting them.
A BBC interview with a member of a nongovernmental organization along the China-North Korea border claimed that the journalists “didn’t cover the faces of the North Koreans they interviewed.” There are also indications that Chinese authorities have resumed crackdowns on North Korean refugees in northeast China due to the publicity generated by their capture.
Former President Bill Clinton’s trip to North Korea to retrieve the journalists has been criticized as negotiating with terrorists and rewarding bad behavior. But far more important than these issues are the signals that were inadvertently sent and the precedents that may have been established for future negotiations.
The Obama administration has made the proper and requisite comments that Clinton’s visit was an unofficial humanitarian mission that was firmly separated from the nuclear issue. Yet, despite best efforts not to send a signal, the Obama administration sent several.
First, Clinton’s trip will be perceived as tacit U.S. acceptance of North Korea’s belligerent behavior. It will also reinforce North Korean perceptions that their strategy of alternating brinkmanship with seemingly conciliatory gestures remains effective. Barely four months after North Korea violated UN resolutions by testing a long-range missile and exploding a nuclear device, the U.S. acquiesced to Pyongyang’s demand to send a former president to meet with Kim Jong-il. Clinton’s visit signals to Iran, Syria, Myanmar and other rogue regimes that a country can disregard the UN and eventually be rewarded.
Clinton’s presence is particularly symbolic since it completes North Korea’s trifecta goal of having the leaders of the great powers come to Pyongyang to pay homage to Kim Jong-il. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Jiang Zemin traveled to Pyongyang in 2000 and 2001, respectively. Clinton had been on the verge of agreeing to a summit in Pyongyang at the end of his presidency in 2000.
Second, the trip to Pyongyang will be interpreted as a policy reversal by the Obama administration, namely an abandonment of the hard-line policy of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in favor of a return to the engagement policy of President Bill Clinton. It raises questions as to what other policy changes might ensue, such as accepting North Korea as a nuclear state or a less vigorous U.S. enforcement of financial sanctions. Or do the apparently conflicting North Korea policy signals reflect a divided administration reminiscent of the warring factions of the Bush administration?
Third, the visit suggests the Obama administration is resorting to high-level bilateral dialogue to resolve U.S. concerns at the expense of insisting upon multilateral negotiations to address issues of import to South Korea and Japan. Despite U.S. reassurances, the allies remain wary that Washington will diplomatically finesse previously sacrosanct preconditions in order to entice Pyongyang back to the negotiating table.
Already U.S. and South Korean pundits are claiming that the release of the journalists was a diplomatic breakthrough indicative of a more benevolent and accommodating North Korea. Media articles have advocated responding to the North Korean gesture with a reciprocal U.S. concession and a softening of UN sanctions.
There have even been suggestions for a return to musical diplomacy by allowing the Pyongyang Symphony Orchestra to play in New York. Last year’s performance of the New York Philharmonic in North Korea was naively described as a “16-inch broadside of soft power into the hearts and minds of the North Korean people.”
North Korea had several objectives for seeking a visit by Bill Clinton. First, it provided the opportunity to show that Kim Jong-il is healthy and remains in control. Second, Pyongyang signaled it was willing to continue nuclear negotiations, albeit bilaterally with the U.S. and under North Korean conditions. Third, by showing that high-level dialogue was successful, Pyongyang sought to lay the groundwork for a future summit meeting with President Obama.
Fourth, the regime sought to mitigate the effectiveness of UN sanctions by undermining international consensus on their need. Fifth, releasing the U.S. prisoners would increase domestic criticism of President Lee Myung-bak for failing to secure the freedom of South Korean abductees.
The Obama administration should not allow itself to be pressured into abandoning international punitive measures levied in response to North Korean violations of UN resolutions. To be effective, the UN sanctions require firm implementation by many nations. However, some countries may now question the utility of pressuring North Korea when the U.S. is willing to dispatch a former president to conduct deals.
The U.S. should continue to insist on North Korea’s complete compliance with UN resolutions as well as its commitment to its six-party talks pledges to completely and verifiably abandon its nuclear weapons programs.
The inherent danger is that North Korea will continue to develop its nuclear weapons and missile-delivery capabilities.
*The writer is senior research fellow for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.
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