Here is my recent story for Jane's Intelligence Weekly. I've updated it on my website.
If you have time, please go over this.
Japan election gives hope to rising grandson
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Friday, July 24, 2009
DPJ faces pragmatism poser (My most recent story)
Hi. Here is my most recent story published yesterday by Asia Times Online.
Japan's main opposition Democratic Party of Japan is caught between a rock and a hard place!
DPJ faces pragmatism poser
The Democratic Party of Japan is poised to end the near-perpetual 50-year rule of the country's Liberal Democratic Party. Yet even as domestic issues look certain to seal election victory, the party is facing a split with an important ally over defense matters and its leaders' warming relations with a concerned United States. - Kosuke Takahashi (Jul 24, '09)
DPJ faces pragmatism poser
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - Policymakers and military experts in the United States are watching closely what is likely to be a fundamental political change across the Pacific in Japan. The main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is almost certainly set to gain control of the government after the national lower house election scheduled for August 30. It would be an unusual toppling of the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) near-perpetual rule for more than half a century.
The DPJ now faces a major dilemma; whether it can adopt a more pragmatic foreign and defense policy and allay security fears of the United States, Japan's key ally. That would be more possible if it kept the more left-leaning Social Democratic Party (SDP) away from the coalition government in the post-election period - but without the SDP, the DPJ would lose a majority in the upper house of the Diet (parliament) and be unable to pass any key bills, even it were to gain a majority in the lower house election.
Splits between the DPJ and SDP are already appearing, even as the DPJ enters talks with the US.
"The DPJ is already increasingly exchanging views on security issues with the US government officials, and it is reviewing its previous stance," Minoru Morita, a noted political analyst in Tokyo, told Asia Times Online. "The alliance with the DPJ and the SDP would be fragile if the DPJ succumbs to pressure from Washington. Pragmatism is a double-edged sword for the DPJ for sure. The more the DPJ becomes pragmatic, the more the SDP aggravates a grievance."
US officials admitted starting a deep dialogue with the DPJ. Most recently, US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said, "One of the things that I've been heartened by, very, very much, is the level and extent to which Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) friends and colleagues have been reaching out for dialogue with the United States. That suggests to me that, at a very deep and basic level, there is a belief that the alliance is central and critical." Campbell was speaking in a recent interview with The Asahi Shimbun published by the International Herald Tribune on Thursday.
INDEX 2009
On Thursday, the DPJ announced a set of policies called "INDEX 2009". Published in 57 pages, it forms the basis of the party's platform for the lower house election. The formal election platform is due to be announced before the end of the month.
INDEX 2009 is mostly given over to domestic policies, relating to such things as child-raising support programs and a bold review of the social security system, including pensions, medical services and nursing care. Most Japanese believe the DPJ could cope better than the LDP in handling problems related to the nation's aging society.
In defense matters, the most notable point is that the party appears to have reversed its previous stance of opposing the overseas dispatch of Self-Defense Forces (SDF). It dropped all reference to the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling operations in the Indian Ocean, an activity the DPJ has until now adamantly opposed, leaving it ambiguous whether the party would oppose the mission's extension beyond next January.
It also dropped a reference to the measures for humanitarian and reconstruction assistance in Afghanistan, which could involve the SDF. Former DPJ head Ichiro Ozawa has been a strong supporter of the SDF's participation in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan.
Having gained a majority in the upper house of the Diet in July 2007, the DPJ temporarily blocked the extension of legislation that would have allowed for the continued SDF's refueling mission for antiterrorism coalition forces in and around Afghanistan since December 2001, effectively ending the dispatch of Japanese naval vessels for three months from November 2007.
Yukio Hatoyama, the present head of the DPJ and virtually prime minister-elect given the current political climate in Tokyo, last week told reporters that a DPJ-led government would continue the refueling mission for the time being if the party takes power, saying that withdrawing in a rush would be reckless. ''Continuity is required in diplomacy,'' he said on July 17.
Then, on July 18, SDP president Mizuho Fukushima criticized Hatoyama, saying, "It's strange to change the idea just because [the party] approaches power, as it has opposed the refueling mission as an opposition party. We cannot ignore the wobbling of the DPJ."
Fukushima took criticism from Tetsuro Fukuyama, an Upper House member of the DPJ and the current deputy policy chief. "I do not think it's healthy to change the nation's current foreign policy suddenly," Fukuyama told Asia Times Online. "Diplomacy is always about talking with foreign counterparts out there.”
Washington pressure
Washington appears to have been worried that a DPJ win will bring about significant changes to Japan's traditional alliance with the US. Unlike right-leaning Japanese politicians, especially in the LDP, DPJ members aim to strengthen Japan's relations with Asian countries, the world's probably economic growth center in the 21st century, especially China.
The DPJ, which has often refused to support US policies, notably on the war in Iraq, has previously criticized the single-track Japan-US alliance by advocating that Tokyo diversifies diplomatic and economic relations. The party has called for a more equal partnership with the US, while supporting policies of multilateral cooperation.
INDEX 2009 also mentioned the party's plan to raise the issue of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), a long-standing issue of jurisdiction over the 37,000-strong US military presence in Japan. The party has proposed relocation of the US Marine Corps Futenma Air Station in Ginowan City, Okinawa Prefecture, to outside the prefecture, and has opposed the agreement between the US and Japanese governments on the planned relocation of that station within the prefecture.
Under the US-Japan accord, 8,000 Marines and their 9,000 dependents will be transferred from Okinawa to Guam by 2014, while the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in the city of Ginowan will be relocated to Henoko district in Nago, Okinawa. Okinawa is home to 70% of the US military facilities in Japan. The DPJ has advocated reducing Okinawa's burden of hosting US military bases as a principal policy imperative.
US officials are putting more pressure on the DPJ stance. Lieutenant General Edward A Rice, commander of US forces in Japan, said on Thursday a plan for the realignment of its bases there must be completed. Rice said the deal "is the right agreement for Japan and the people of the United States", according to an AFP report.
Hatoyama's DPJ, no doubt, appears to be winning. A survey conducted between July 21 and 22 found that 40% of the public supported the party, up three percentage points from the previous survey early in the month and far more than the 30% who said they supported the LDP, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Thursday. The approval rating for the cabinet of Prime Minister Taro Aso stood at 20%, while 71% disapproved.
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Japan's main opposition Democratic Party of Japan is caught between a rock and a hard place!
DPJ faces pragmatism poser
The Democratic Party of Japan is poised to end the near-perpetual 50-year rule of the country's Liberal Democratic Party. Yet even as domestic issues look certain to seal election victory, the party is facing a split with an important ally over defense matters and its leaders' warming relations with a concerned United States. - Kosuke Takahashi (Jul 24, '09)
DPJ faces pragmatism poser
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - Policymakers and military experts in the United States are watching closely what is likely to be a fundamental political change across the Pacific in Japan. The main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is almost certainly set to gain control of the government after the national lower house election scheduled for August 30. It would be an unusual toppling of the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) near-perpetual rule for more than half a century.
The DPJ now faces a major dilemma; whether it can adopt a more pragmatic foreign and defense policy and allay security fears of the United States, Japan's key ally. That would be more possible if it kept the more left-leaning Social Democratic Party (SDP) away from the coalition government in the post-election period - but without the SDP, the DPJ would lose a majority in the upper house of the Diet (parliament) and be unable to pass any key bills, even it were to gain a majority in the lower house election.
Splits between the DPJ and SDP are already appearing, even as the DPJ enters talks with the US.
"The DPJ is already increasingly exchanging views on security issues with the US government officials, and it is reviewing its previous stance," Minoru Morita, a noted political analyst in Tokyo, told Asia Times Online. "The alliance with the DPJ and the SDP would be fragile if the DPJ succumbs to pressure from Washington. Pragmatism is a double-edged sword for the DPJ for sure. The more the DPJ becomes pragmatic, the more the SDP aggravates a grievance."
US officials admitted starting a deep dialogue with the DPJ. Most recently, US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said, "One of the things that I've been heartened by, very, very much, is the level and extent to which Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) friends and colleagues have been reaching out for dialogue with the United States. That suggests to me that, at a very deep and basic level, there is a belief that the alliance is central and critical." Campbell was speaking in a recent interview with The Asahi Shimbun published by the International Herald Tribune on Thursday.
INDEX 2009
On Thursday, the DPJ announced a set of policies called "INDEX 2009". Published in 57 pages, it forms the basis of the party's platform for the lower house election. The formal election platform is due to be announced before the end of the month.
INDEX 2009 is mostly given over to domestic policies, relating to such things as child-raising support programs and a bold review of the social security system, including pensions, medical services and nursing care. Most Japanese believe the DPJ could cope better than the LDP in handling problems related to the nation's aging society.
In defense matters, the most notable point is that the party appears to have reversed its previous stance of opposing the overseas dispatch of Self-Defense Forces (SDF). It dropped all reference to the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling operations in the Indian Ocean, an activity the DPJ has until now adamantly opposed, leaving it ambiguous whether the party would oppose the mission's extension beyond next January.
It also dropped a reference to the measures for humanitarian and reconstruction assistance in Afghanistan, which could involve the SDF. Former DPJ head Ichiro Ozawa has been a strong supporter of the SDF's participation in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan.
Having gained a majority in the upper house of the Diet in July 2007, the DPJ temporarily blocked the extension of legislation that would have allowed for the continued SDF's refueling mission for antiterrorism coalition forces in and around Afghanistan since December 2001, effectively ending the dispatch of Japanese naval vessels for three months from November 2007.
Yukio Hatoyama, the present head of the DPJ and virtually prime minister-elect given the current political climate in Tokyo, last week told reporters that a DPJ-led government would continue the refueling mission for the time being if the party takes power, saying that withdrawing in a rush would be reckless. ''Continuity is required in diplomacy,'' he said on July 17.
Then, on July 18, SDP president Mizuho Fukushima criticized Hatoyama, saying, "It's strange to change the idea just because [the party] approaches power, as it has opposed the refueling mission as an opposition party. We cannot ignore the wobbling of the DPJ."
Fukushima took criticism from Tetsuro Fukuyama, an Upper House member of the DPJ and the current deputy policy chief. "I do not think it's healthy to change the nation's current foreign policy suddenly," Fukuyama told Asia Times Online. "Diplomacy is always about talking with foreign counterparts out there.”
Washington pressure
Washington appears to have been worried that a DPJ win will bring about significant changes to Japan's traditional alliance with the US. Unlike right-leaning Japanese politicians, especially in the LDP, DPJ members aim to strengthen Japan's relations with Asian countries, the world's probably economic growth center in the 21st century, especially China.
The DPJ, which has often refused to support US policies, notably on the war in Iraq, has previously criticized the single-track Japan-US alliance by advocating that Tokyo diversifies diplomatic and economic relations. The party has called for a more equal partnership with the US, while supporting policies of multilateral cooperation.
INDEX 2009 also mentioned the party's plan to raise the issue of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), a long-standing issue of jurisdiction over the 37,000-strong US military presence in Japan. The party has proposed relocation of the US Marine Corps Futenma Air Station in Ginowan City, Okinawa Prefecture, to outside the prefecture, and has opposed the agreement between the US and Japanese governments on the planned relocation of that station within the prefecture.
Under the US-Japan accord, 8,000 Marines and their 9,000 dependents will be transferred from Okinawa to Guam by 2014, while the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in the city of Ginowan will be relocated to Henoko district in Nago, Okinawa. Okinawa is home to 70% of the US military facilities in Japan. The DPJ has advocated reducing Okinawa's burden of hosting US military bases as a principal policy imperative.
US officials are putting more pressure on the DPJ stance. Lieutenant General Edward A Rice, commander of US forces in Japan, said on Thursday a plan for the realignment of its bases there must be completed. Rice said the deal "is the right agreement for Japan and the people of the United States", according to an AFP report.
Hatoyama's DPJ, no doubt, appears to be winning. A survey conducted between July 21 and 22 found that 40% of the public supported the party, up three percentage points from the previous survey early in the month and far more than the 30% who said they supported the LDP, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Thursday. The approval rating for the cabinet of Prime Minister Taro Aso stood at 20%, while 71% disapproved.
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Friday, July 10, 2009
A deja vu moment in Japan (My most recent story)
Hello, my friends. Here is my most recent story published by Asia Times last night. I criticized the Ministry of Finance, which is taking advantage of political confusion. If you get time, please go over this. Have a nice weekend. Thanks and regards, Kosuke
A deja vu moment in Japan
Considered a preview of imminent general elections, Sunday's Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly poll is expected to fast-track a major power shift from Japan's de facto one-party rule - bringing to mind the Liberal Democratic Party's crushing defeat in August 1993. Meanwhile, bureaucrats in the Finance Ministry are taking advantage of political confusion. - Kosuke Takahashi (Jul 10,'09)
A deja vu moment in Japan
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - Japan's main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), is already a clear front-runner in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election scheduled for Sunday. This local election, right in the heart of the national capital, is perceived as a prelude battle to a crucial general election, likely to be held in August, accelerating a major power shift from Japan's de facto one-party rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for more than half a century.
Prime Minister Taro Aso, president of the LDP, will face pressure to step down immediately - both from inside and outside the party - if the LDP were to heavily lose the Tokyo election. This political climate is increasingly becoming a repeat of August 1993, when the LDP was toppled from nearly four decades of power by the Morihiro Hosokawa administration led by the now-defunct Japan New Party. This followed a crushing defeat in the election for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly in 1993, amid the collapse of the so-called bubble economy in the early 1990s.
Japanese bureaucrats, meanwhile, are taking advantage of the political confusion. Especially the Ministry of Finance (MOF), the strongest ministry that controls the nation's purse; it recently lofted a once trouble-causing and beleaguered official back onto center stage of the ponderous bureaucracy. The ministry is also regaining its political and economic power by adopting once-forbidden personnel exchanges between the ministry and the Financial Services Agency (FSA), the government's independent organization responsible for overseeing banking, securities and exchange.
The Tokyo election
The LDP may be losing ground to its main opposition rival. In the final stage of the campaign, all the major Japanese media have suggested that the LDP is likely to fall behind the largest opposition, the DPJ, in Sunday's elections in Tokyo.
The DPJ is likely to become the biggest party in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly, ahead of the ruling LDP, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Thursday. Out of the 127-seat chamber, the DPJ is expected to add to the 34 seats it holds now, already endorsing a record 58 candidates and riding on the back of key victories against LDP-backed candidates in recent major local elections, such as the Shizuoka Prefecture gubernatorial race.
The LDP, on the other hand, faces a major challenge in holding onto its current 48 seats, Japan's largest business newspaper said. The focus is on whether the LDP and junior coalition partner New Komeito will be able to hold onto a majority, or 64 seats, in the Tokyo Assembly, the paper added.
More than 30% said they would vote for the DPJ-backed candidates in the metropolitan election, up 13.2 percentage points from a survey before the previous election in 2005 and far more than the 18.2% who said they would vote for the LDP, a Kyodo News opinion poll also showed on Monday.
The approval rating for Aso's cabinet among the poll respondents in Tokyo stood at 19.3%, while 75.1% disapproved. The Aso administration's failure to take effective and speedy actions in coping with the ailing and sluggish economy amid its worst post-war economic slump, the worst performing in the developed world during this recession, could bring about an unexpected higher voter turnout, possibly handing down a clear no-confidence vote to Aso.
"The DPJ will become the dominant party in the Tokyo assembly for sure," Minoru Morita, a noted political analyst in Tokyo, told Asia Times Online. "The alliance with the Liberals and the New Komeito is also likely to fail to reach a majority. Pressure for Aso to step down will be mounting after the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, and the LDP may hold a leadership election ahead of the key lower house election. I see a 60% chance of the LDP's presidential election soon."
Memories of 1993
In August 9, 1993, the Hosokawa administration was born after the LDP suffered an ignominious defeat in the Lower House election on July 18 that year because of the bribery and corruption of the regime ruled by the LDP mono-party.
Earlier, on June 27, the then newly born Japan New Party led by Hosokawa secured 20 seats in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly, heavily damaging the then-Kiichi Miyazawa administration and then bringing about the non-LDP coalition government under Hosokawa.
Yukio Hatoyama, the current head of the DPJ, served as vice chief cabinet secretary in the cabinet of Hosokawa from 1993 to 1994. The first non-LDP cabinets in more than 30 years, led by primers Hosokawa and Tsutomu Hata, lasted only a combined total of 10 months, as the then-Japan Socialist Party left the coalition, destroying its majority in the Diet (parliament) and forcing it out of power.
Finance flexes its muscles
Many political analysts see the Ministry of Finance as taking advantage of the political confusion. The ministry announced on July 3 it would appoint Rintaro Tamaki, 55, to replace Naoyuki Shinohara as vice finance minister for international affairs, the official responsible for currency policy, effective on July 14.
Tamaki was a high school classmate of Shoichi Nakagawa, Japan's former tipsy finance minister and head of the FSA, who resigned in February following his slurring and yawning news conference at a Group of Seven meeting in Rome. Tamaki, director general of the Finance Ministry's International Bureau who accompanied Nakagawa to Rome, defended Nakagawa by saying the then-finance chief didn't drink a lot of the wine and only "tasted it with his lips".
In a July 3 announcement, the ministry for the first time allowed high-ranking FSA officials to transfer with Finance Ministry officials since the complete separation of the FSA from the ministry in 1998, which aimed to divide planning and supervision functions. For example Toshiyuki Ohtou, 54, deputy commissioner for policy coordination at the FSA, was named as the new director-general of the Customs and Tariff Bureau at the MOF.
"With the upcoming advent of a new administration led by the main opposition, bureaucrats such as those in the Ministry of Finance are now desperate to defend their ministries," Morita said. "They are strongly uniting in their common interest against the DPJ."
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
A deja vu moment in Japan
Considered a preview of imminent general elections, Sunday's Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly poll is expected to fast-track a major power shift from Japan's de facto one-party rule - bringing to mind the Liberal Democratic Party's crushing defeat in August 1993. Meanwhile, bureaucrats in the Finance Ministry are taking advantage of political confusion. - Kosuke Takahashi (Jul 10,'09)
A deja vu moment in Japan
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - Japan's main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), is already a clear front-runner in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election scheduled for Sunday. This local election, right in the heart of the national capital, is perceived as a prelude battle to a crucial general election, likely to be held in August, accelerating a major power shift from Japan's de facto one-party rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for more than half a century.
Prime Minister Taro Aso, president of the LDP, will face pressure to step down immediately - both from inside and outside the party - if the LDP were to heavily lose the Tokyo election. This political climate is increasingly becoming a repeat of August 1993, when the LDP was toppled from nearly four decades of power by the Morihiro Hosokawa administration led by the now-defunct Japan New Party. This followed a crushing defeat in the election for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly in 1993, amid the collapse of the so-called bubble economy in the early 1990s.
Japanese bureaucrats, meanwhile, are taking advantage of the political confusion. Especially the Ministry of Finance (MOF), the strongest ministry that controls the nation's purse; it recently lofted a once trouble-causing and beleaguered official back onto center stage of the ponderous bureaucracy. The ministry is also regaining its political and economic power by adopting once-forbidden personnel exchanges between the ministry and the Financial Services Agency (FSA), the government's independent organization responsible for overseeing banking, securities and exchange.
The Tokyo election
The LDP may be losing ground to its main opposition rival. In the final stage of the campaign, all the major Japanese media have suggested that the LDP is likely to fall behind the largest opposition, the DPJ, in Sunday's elections in Tokyo.
The DPJ is likely to become the biggest party in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly, ahead of the ruling LDP, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Thursday. Out of the 127-seat chamber, the DPJ is expected to add to the 34 seats it holds now, already endorsing a record 58 candidates and riding on the back of key victories against LDP-backed candidates in recent major local elections, such as the Shizuoka Prefecture gubernatorial race.
The LDP, on the other hand, faces a major challenge in holding onto its current 48 seats, Japan's largest business newspaper said. The focus is on whether the LDP and junior coalition partner New Komeito will be able to hold onto a majority, or 64 seats, in the Tokyo Assembly, the paper added.
More than 30% said they would vote for the DPJ-backed candidates in the metropolitan election, up 13.2 percentage points from a survey before the previous election in 2005 and far more than the 18.2% who said they would vote for the LDP, a Kyodo News opinion poll also showed on Monday.
The approval rating for Aso's cabinet among the poll respondents in Tokyo stood at 19.3%, while 75.1% disapproved. The Aso administration's failure to take effective and speedy actions in coping with the ailing and sluggish economy amid its worst post-war economic slump, the worst performing in the developed world during this recession, could bring about an unexpected higher voter turnout, possibly handing down a clear no-confidence vote to Aso.
"The DPJ will become the dominant party in the Tokyo assembly for sure," Minoru Morita, a noted political analyst in Tokyo, told Asia Times Online. "The alliance with the Liberals and the New Komeito is also likely to fail to reach a majority. Pressure for Aso to step down will be mounting after the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, and the LDP may hold a leadership election ahead of the key lower house election. I see a 60% chance of the LDP's presidential election soon."
Memories of 1993
In August 9, 1993, the Hosokawa administration was born after the LDP suffered an ignominious defeat in the Lower House election on July 18 that year because of the bribery and corruption of the regime ruled by the LDP mono-party.
Earlier, on June 27, the then newly born Japan New Party led by Hosokawa secured 20 seats in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly, heavily damaging the then-Kiichi Miyazawa administration and then bringing about the non-LDP coalition government under Hosokawa.
Yukio Hatoyama, the current head of the DPJ, served as vice chief cabinet secretary in the cabinet of Hosokawa from 1993 to 1994. The first non-LDP cabinets in more than 30 years, led by primers Hosokawa and Tsutomu Hata, lasted only a combined total of 10 months, as the then-Japan Socialist Party left the coalition, destroying its majority in the Diet (parliament) and forcing it out of power.
Finance flexes its muscles
Many political analysts see the Ministry of Finance as taking advantage of the political confusion. The ministry announced on July 3 it would appoint Rintaro Tamaki, 55, to replace Naoyuki Shinohara as vice finance minister for international affairs, the official responsible for currency policy, effective on July 14.
Tamaki was a high school classmate of Shoichi Nakagawa, Japan's former tipsy finance minister and head of the FSA, who resigned in February following his slurring and yawning news conference at a Group of Seven meeting in Rome. Tamaki, director general of the Finance Ministry's International Bureau who accompanied Nakagawa to Rome, defended Nakagawa by saying the then-finance chief didn't drink a lot of the wine and only "tasted it with his lips".
In a July 3 announcement, the ministry for the first time allowed high-ranking FSA officials to transfer with Finance Ministry officials since the complete separation of the FSA from the ministry in 1998, which aimed to divide planning and supervision functions. For example Toshiyuki Ohtou, 54, deputy commissioner for policy coordination at the FSA, was named as the new director-general of the Customs and Tariff Bureau at the MOF.
"With the upcoming advent of a new administration led by the main opposition, bureaucrats such as those in the Ministry of Finance are now desperate to defend their ministries," Morita said. "They are strongly uniting in their common interest against the DPJ."
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Friday, June 26, 2009
The return of 'Mrs Watanabe'
Here is my most recent story.
If you want to know how 'Mrs Watanabe' is doing in the currency markets, just go to the following sites. There are data from the Tokyo Financial Exchange (TFX). Cheers, Kosuke
Historical data on on Exchange Forex Margin Contracts (Click 365)
Month-to-date data on Exchange Forex Margin Contracts (Click 365)
Foreign Exchange Margin Trading Market in Japan 2008 published by Yano Research Institute.
Cheers, Kosuke
The return of 'Mrs Watanabe'
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - Mrs Watanabe, the market's metaphor for Japan's housewife yen speculators, has come back to life. A star of the yen trade's golden days from 2000 until mid-2007, she suffered big losses in the financial turmoil over the past few years. But like a phoenix - or a zombie - she is rising from the ashes as market stability increases risk appetites and yen-selling positions pile up.
Japan's housewives, pensioners and businessmen are behind accelerated sales of the Japanese currency, betting it will resume its decline against high-yield currencies. Lower volatility, which implies smaller exchange-rate fluctuation risk, may encourage them to take advantage of the Bank of Japan's ultra-low overnight lending rate at 0.1% to borrow yen in so-called carry trades to buy assets in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe to increase returns on 1,410 trillion yen ($14.7 trillion) in financial assets.
Yen sales by Japanese individual investors against the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose to their highest in almost nine months this week, according to data from the Tokyo Financial Exchange (TFX). Net long positions held by individual investors on the Southern Hemisphere currencies reached 127,752 contracts on June 23, the highest since October 3, the data from Japan's largest financial futures market showed. Long positions are bets that a currency will rise.
Most notably, net long positions on the Australian dollar against the yen rose to 97,643 contracts among retail investors on June 23, the highest since August 29, returning to record-high levels similar to those before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, data also showed.
The contracts are denominated in 10,000 units of the foreign currency. Account deposits at TFX constitute about 10% of all foreign-exchange margin trading in Japan and almost 5% of the total trading volume, a spokesman at the exchange said.
"Behind those increased long positions is the improvement of Japanese investors' risk appetite," Yuki Sakasai, a Tokyo-based currency strategist at Barclays Capital Plc, told Asia Times Online. "The commodity market saw some pullback lately, pushing down commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar. This gave them good opportunities to buy those currencies on dips."
The yen traded at 77.30 against Australia's currency at noon in Tokyo on Friday and was at 61.75 per New Zealand's dollar. Against the Australian dollar, the Japanese currency declined to a 16-year low of 107.87 yen on October 31, 2007, then rose to 55.13 on Oct. 24, 2008, the strongest since Australia's currency started trading freely in 1983. The yen has been the worst-performing major currency this year, as financial markets stabilized.
Benchmark interest rates are 3% in Australia and 2.5% in New Zealand, compared with 0.1% in Japan, attracting investors to the South Pacific nations' higher-yielding assets. The risk in such trades is that currency market moves will erase profits.
In Japan, individuals have opened 1.23 million margin trading accounts at brokerages that lend money for currency bets as of March 2008, up 92% from a year earlier, according to Tokyo-based Yano Research Institute Ltd, the publisher of an annual report on the business. The number may have exceeded 1.79 million by the end of March 2009, said Kaz Shirakura, a senior researcher at the institute.
Account balances totaled 696.4 billion yen, up 13.5% from a year earlier, Shirakura said. Those balances may have reached 906 billion yen by the end of March 2009, he also said.
"Japanese retail investors used to be very good at contrarian trading methods, by which they buy foreign currencies on dips," Shirakura said. "But now they have become very good at swing trading in a very short term. They earn short swing profits by buying and selling foreign currencies, just like professional traders. Mrs Watanabe has become much cleverer and smarter after the subprime debacle."
The value of financial assets held by Japanese households shrank to its lowest in five years as of March 2009, with the turmoil taking its toll on stock and mutual fund holdings, found a June 17 Bank of Japan survey. Japanese households' financial assets fell 3.7% to 1,410 trillion yen from the previous year, the Bank of Japan's flow of funds survey showed. It was the second straight year of decline.
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
If you want to know how 'Mrs Watanabe' is doing in the currency markets, just go to the following sites. There are data from the Tokyo Financial Exchange (TFX). Cheers, Kosuke
Historical data on on Exchange Forex Margin Contracts (Click 365)
Month-to-date data on Exchange Forex Margin Contracts (Click 365)
Foreign Exchange Margin Trading Market in Japan 2008 published by Yano Research Institute.
Cheers, Kosuke
The return of 'Mrs Watanabe'
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - Mrs Watanabe, the market's metaphor for Japan's housewife yen speculators, has come back to life. A star of the yen trade's golden days from 2000 until mid-2007, she suffered big losses in the financial turmoil over the past few years. But like a phoenix - or a zombie - she is rising from the ashes as market stability increases risk appetites and yen-selling positions pile up.
Japan's housewives, pensioners and businessmen are behind accelerated sales of the Japanese currency, betting it will resume its decline against high-yield currencies. Lower volatility, which implies smaller exchange-rate fluctuation risk, may encourage them to take advantage of the Bank of Japan's ultra-low overnight lending rate at 0.1% to borrow yen in so-called carry trades to buy assets in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe to increase returns on 1,410 trillion yen ($14.7 trillion) in financial assets.
Yen sales by Japanese individual investors against the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose to their highest in almost nine months this week, according to data from the Tokyo Financial Exchange (TFX). Net long positions held by individual investors on the Southern Hemisphere currencies reached 127,752 contracts on June 23, the highest since October 3, the data from Japan's largest financial futures market showed. Long positions are bets that a currency will rise.
Most notably, net long positions on the Australian dollar against the yen rose to 97,643 contracts among retail investors on June 23, the highest since August 29, returning to record-high levels similar to those before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, data also showed.
The contracts are denominated in 10,000 units of the foreign currency. Account deposits at TFX constitute about 10% of all foreign-exchange margin trading in Japan and almost 5% of the total trading volume, a spokesman at the exchange said.
"Behind those increased long positions is the improvement of Japanese investors' risk appetite," Yuki Sakasai, a Tokyo-based currency strategist at Barclays Capital Plc, told Asia Times Online. "The commodity market saw some pullback lately, pushing down commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar. This gave them good opportunities to buy those currencies on dips."
The yen traded at 77.30 against Australia's currency at noon in Tokyo on Friday and was at 61.75 per New Zealand's dollar. Against the Australian dollar, the Japanese currency declined to a 16-year low of 107.87 yen on October 31, 2007, then rose to 55.13 on Oct. 24, 2008, the strongest since Australia's currency started trading freely in 1983. The yen has been the worst-performing major currency this year, as financial markets stabilized.
Benchmark interest rates are 3% in Australia and 2.5% in New Zealand, compared with 0.1% in Japan, attracting investors to the South Pacific nations' higher-yielding assets. The risk in such trades is that currency market moves will erase profits.
In Japan, individuals have opened 1.23 million margin trading accounts at brokerages that lend money for currency bets as of March 2008, up 92% from a year earlier, according to Tokyo-based Yano Research Institute Ltd, the publisher of an annual report on the business. The number may have exceeded 1.79 million by the end of March 2009, said Kaz Shirakura, a senior researcher at the institute.
Account balances totaled 696.4 billion yen, up 13.5% from a year earlier, Shirakura said. Those balances may have reached 906 billion yen by the end of March 2009, he also said.
"Japanese retail investors used to be very good at contrarian trading methods, by which they buy foreign currencies on dips," Shirakura said. "But now they have become very good at swing trading in a very short term. They earn short swing profits by buying and selling foreign currencies, just like professional traders. Mrs Watanabe has become much cleverer and smarter after the subprime debacle."
The value of financial assets held by Japanese households shrank to its lowest in five years as of March 2009, with the turmoil taking its toll on stock and mutual fund holdings, found a June 17 Bank of Japan survey. Japanese households' financial assets fell 3.7% to 1,410 trillion yen from the previous year, the Bank of Japan's flow of funds survey showed. It was the second straight year of decline.
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Friday, May 29, 2009
Pyongyang shakes up pacifist Japan (my most recent story published by Asia Times)
Pyongyang shakes up pacifist Japan
The Japanese government, prompted by this week's nuclear and missile tests by North Korea, is finalizing plans that would enable the military to carry out pre-emptive strikes as part of a new defense plan to be presented by the end of the year. The era of Japan's strong pacifism, as enshrined in the United States-imposed "peace constitution", may be coming to an end. - Kosuke Takahashi (May 29,'09)
Pyongyang shakes up pacifist Japan
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - An increasingly belligerent North Korea is reawaking hawkish sentiments in Japan, still one of the world's most powerful nations and equipped with ultra-modern weaponry.
Prompted by Pyongyang's recent provocations - including an underground nuclear test, short-range missile launches and a long-range missile test - normally pacifist Japan is considering acquiring the capability to make pre-emptive strikes to destroy enemy bases, such as those in North Korea.
More than a few government officials and lawmakers have reservations about making the leap, as it would be a huge departure from Japan's exclusively defense-oriented, post-World War II policy. The strong pacifism enshrined in the United Stated-imposed "peace constitution" would be a thing of the past.
The Japanese government, led by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is applying the finishing touches to plans that would enable the Japanese military to carry out pre-emptive strikes against enemy states as part of the new National Defense Program Guidelines for fiscal years 2010 to 2014, to be compiled by the end of this year.
The 12-page summary of proposals made by a subcommittee of the LDP's defense policy-making panel on May 26 argue that Japan could use sea-launched cruise missiles in pre-emptive strikes against a hostile nation's missile sites, having first detected launch preparations in that enemy state with surveillance satellites. The proposals are expected to be officially finalized on June 3.
Japan would not be forced to "just sit and wait for its own death", read the document obtained by Asia Times Online. Such measures would have to remain "within the scope of Japan's defense-only policy," it continued, stressing that the pre-emptive strikes could be used to prevent an imminent attack.
In response to a lawmaker's question as to whether Japan has right to launch pre-emptive strikes against missile sites after detecting launch preparations in an enemy state with a spy satellite, Prime Minister Taro Aso said: "As long as it is evident that there are no other measures, striking the enemy's missile bases is guaranteed under the Constitution. It falls within the scope of self-defense. It's different from pre-emptive attacks."
Aso pointed out that the right of self-defense is usually defined as the right to exercise certain forces for self-defense against imminent or real unlawful armed attacks. He stressed that the Japanese government has maintained this view as a basic standpoint.
Aso's remarks suggest that Japan's more assertive stance against North Korea would not require changes to Japan's pacifist constitution. He added, "... the Self-Defense Force [SDF] is unequipped to strike enemy bases" given its current capabilities.
"The nation's right of self-defense is a natural right, and the individual right of self-defense is certainly guaranteed under the Constitution," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online. "But Japan requires some adjustment with the United States, or Japan's military ally."
Meanwhile, North Korea's Rodong Daily News on Friday carried a commentary branding Aso's and other leaders' recent remarks as revealing the bellicose design of Japan as it seeks to ignite a war of aggression with North Korea. Pyongyang vowed to "wipe out all Japanese militaristic invaders by launching merciless retaliatory attacks" on ground, sea and air assaults, the Rodong Daily News editorial boasted.
The LDP subcommittee's proposals also include changing the government's current interpretation of the Constitution which denies Japan the right to collective defense, preventing the SDF from protecting US warships in joint operations or from intercepting long-range ballistic missiles aimed at US targets.
The proposals also include developing an early warning satellite system to detect the launch of ballistic missiles, for which Japan currently relies on the US. Another proposal is to appoint an SDF officer to the post of secretary to the prime minister. This position has been avoided in the post-World War II period in order to prevent a the return of an unchecked military establishment.
Among other proposals is a bid to review Japan's so-called three principles of banning the export of weapons. Currently, the only exception is for Japanese companies to provide weapons to the US created through joint development projects. This applies solely to the ballistic missile defense (BMD) initiative. The revision of the three principles would allow Japan to export weapons to other nations.
The proposals also suggest establishing a basic law on national security and initiating a Japanese version of the US's National Security Council.
Satoru Miyamoto, research fellow in North Korean military affairs at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, told Asia Times Online on Friday, that the recent argument by the LDP and Aso was "nothing more than words on paper".
"Even if Japan succeeds in attacking enemy bases, it cannot defend itself from counterattacks," Miyamoto said. "Japan does not have such military capabilities. It's quite easy to start a war, but it's very difficult to end it.”
Kosuke Takahashi, a former staff writer at the Asahi Shimbun, is a freelance correspondent based in Tokyo.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
The Japanese government, prompted by this week's nuclear and missile tests by North Korea, is finalizing plans that would enable the military to carry out pre-emptive strikes as part of a new defense plan to be presented by the end of the year. The era of Japan's strong pacifism, as enshrined in the United States-imposed "peace constitution", may be coming to an end. - Kosuke Takahashi (May 29,'09)
Pyongyang shakes up pacifist Japan
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - An increasingly belligerent North Korea is reawaking hawkish sentiments in Japan, still one of the world's most powerful nations and equipped with ultra-modern weaponry.
Prompted by Pyongyang's recent provocations - including an underground nuclear test, short-range missile launches and a long-range missile test - normally pacifist Japan is considering acquiring the capability to make pre-emptive strikes to destroy enemy bases, such as those in North Korea.
More than a few government officials and lawmakers have reservations about making the leap, as it would be a huge departure from Japan's exclusively defense-oriented, post-World War II policy. The strong pacifism enshrined in the United Stated-imposed "peace constitution" would be a thing of the past.
The Japanese government, led by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is applying the finishing touches to plans that would enable the Japanese military to carry out pre-emptive strikes against enemy states as part of the new National Defense Program Guidelines for fiscal years 2010 to 2014, to be compiled by the end of this year.
The 12-page summary of proposals made by a subcommittee of the LDP's defense policy-making panel on May 26 argue that Japan could use sea-launched cruise missiles in pre-emptive strikes against a hostile nation's missile sites, having first detected launch preparations in that enemy state with surveillance satellites. The proposals are expected to be officially finalized on June 3.
Japan would not be forced to "just sit and wait for its own death", read the document obtained by Asia Times Online. Such measures would have to remain "within the scope of Japan's defense-only policy," it continued, stressing that the pre-emptive strikes could be used to prevent an imminent attack.
In response to a lawmaker's question as to whether Japan has right to launch pre-emptive strikes against missile sites after detecting launch preparations in an enemy state with a spy satellite, Prime Minister Taro Aso said: "As long as it is evident that there are no other measures, striking the enemy's missile bases is guaranteed under the Constitution. It falls within the scope of self-defense. It's different from pre-emptive attacks."
Aso pointed out that the right of self-defense is usually defined as the right to exercise certain forces for self-defense against imminent or real unlawful armed attacks. He stressed that the Japanese government has maintained this view as a basic standpoint.
Aso's remarks suggest that Japan's more assertive stance against North Korea would not require changes to Japan's pacifist constitution. He added, "... the Self-Defense Force [SDF] is unequipped to strike enemy bases" given its current capabilities.
"The nation's right of self-defense is a natural right, and the individual right of self-defense is certainly guaranteed under the Constitution," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online. "But Japan requires some adjustment with the United States, or Japan's military ally."
Meanwhile, North Korea's Rodong Daily News on Friday carried a commentary branding Aso's and other leaders' recent remarks as revealing the bellicose design of Japan as it seeks to ignite a war of aggression with North Korea. Pyongyang vowed to "wipe out all Japanese militaristic invaders by launching merciless retaliatory attacks" on ground, sea and air assaults, the Rodong Daily News editorial boasted.
The LDP subcommittee's proposals also include changing the government's current interpretation of the Constitution which denies Japan the right to collective defense, preventing the SDF from protecting US warships in joint operations or from intercepting long-range ballistic missiles aimed at US targets.
The proposals also include developing an early warning satellite system to detect the launch of ballistic missiles, for which Japan currently relies on the US. Another proposal is to appoint an SDF officer to the post of secretary to the prime minister. This position has been avoided in the post-World War II period in order to prevent a the return of an unchecked military establishment.
Among other proposals is a bid to review Japan's so-called three principles of banning the export of weapons. Currently, the only exception is for Japanese companies to provide weapons to the US created through joint development projects. This applies solely to the ballistic missile defense (BMD) initiative. The revision of the three principles would allow Japan to export weapons to other nations.
The proposals also suggest establishing a basic law on national security and initiating a Japanese version of the US's National Security Council.
Satoru Miyamoto, research fellow in North Korean military affairs at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, told Asia Times Online on Friday, that the recent argument by the LDP and Aso was "nothing more than words on paper".
"Even if Japan succeeds in attacking enemy bases, it cannot defend itself from counterattacks," Miyamoto said. "Japan does not have such military capabilities. It's quite easy to start a war, but it's very difficult to end it.”
Kosuke Takahashi, a former staff writer at the Asahi Shimbun, is a freelance correspondent based in Tokyo.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
DPRK top leader calls for building powerful, prosperous nation (Xinhua)
DPRK top leader calls for building powerful, prosperous nation
10:33, May 29, 2009
DPRK top leader calls for building powerful, prosperous nation
Kim Jong Il, the top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), has called on the DPRK people to devote to the course of building a great powerful and prosperous country, the official KCNA news agency reported on Thursday.
The whole country was launching a socialism construction campaign, and the date to "open the gate of a great powerful and prosperous nation" was getting close, Kim said while inspecting a fertilizer plant, which was named "Namhung Youth Chemical Complex," in South Hamgyong Province.
He asked the plant to start fertilizer production as soon as possible, so as to "increase the varieties of chemical goods needed for the country's economic development and the people's living."
The report didn't give the date of the visit.
Source: Xinhua
Copyright by People's Daily Online, All Rights Reserved
10:33, May 29, 2009
DPRK top leader calls for building powerful, prosperous nation
Kim Jong Il, the top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), has called on the DPRK people to devote to the course of building a great powerful and prosperous country, the official KCNA news agency reported on Thursday.
The whole country was launching a socialism construction campaign, and the date to "open the gate of a great powerful and prosperous nation" was getting close, Kim said while inspecting a fertilizer plant, which was named "Namhung Youth Chemical Complex," in South Hamgyong Province.
He asked the plant to start fertilizer production as soon as possible, so as to "increase the varieties of chemical goods needed for the country's economic development and the people's living."
The report didn't give the date of the visit.
Source: Xinhua
Copyright by People's Daily Online, All Rights Reserved
Thursday, May 28, 2009
De-fang Pyongyang (FT)
De-fang Pyongyang
Published: May 26 2009 19:57 | Last updated: May 26 2009 19:57
The nuclear club is getting less exclusive by the day. Admittedly, North Korea is not a fully paid-up member yet. In spite of its Hiroshima-sized blast this week, it has not yet demonstrated it can make a warhead sufficiently small to mount on a long-range missile. But that day cannot be far off.
We need not have got into this mess. George W. Bush’s first administration wantonly scuppered Bill Clinton’s imperfect, but workable, 1994 framework agreement. Under that deal, Pyongyang froze its nuclear weapons programme in return for food, oil and help with a civilian light-water reactor. But Mr Bush wanted no truck with dictators. He also had evidence that North Korea was running a (tiny) secret uranium enrichment programme in addition to the Yongbyon plutonium facility.
The world is now paying the price for Mr Bush’s refusal to sup with the devil. Worryingly, Pyongyang’s drive towards full nuclear status may no longer be aimed at getting Washington’s attention. Internal dynamics over the succession of Kim Jong-il, the frail dictator, and a diplomatic stand-off with the conservative administration now running South Korea have gathered a momentum of their own.
That leaves the parties that deal directly with North Korea – the US, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia – with almost no room for manoeuvre. The best but diminishing hope is a return to the agreed framework. That would require dialogue in which the west offered incentives – including a security guarantee and possibly civilian nuclear technology – in return for verifiable dismantlement of North Korea’s weapons programme.
Nothing can be offered now to reward Pyongyang for its deliberate provocation. In the short term, the US should press for sanctions targeting the regime rather than its people. Here the Bush administration’s freezing of North Korean financial assets – a measure that palpably hurt the regime before – points the way forward. China, which fears a collapsed North Korea even more than a nuclear one, must also be persuaded to join in tightening the noose. Seoul might even consider closing the Kaesong industrial complex, symbol of its wrecked Sunshine policy.
All this would no doubt elicit more bluster from Pyongyang – which might even try to provoke low-level skirmishes with Seoul. But with well-judged sticks and credible carrots, Pyongyang might come back to the table. Then the west should hold its nose and offer to restore what the Bush administration so recklessly took away.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
Published: May 26 2009 19:57 | Last updated: May 26 2009 19:57
The nuclear club is getting less exclusive by the day. Admittedly, North Korea is not a fully paid-up member yet. In spite of its Hiroshima-sized blast this week, it has not yet demonstrated it can make a warhead sufficiently small to mount on a long-range missile. But that day cannot be far off.
We need not have got into this mess. George W. Bush’s first administration wantonly scuppered Bill Clinton’s imperfect, but workable, 1994 framework agreement. Under that deal, Pyongyang froze its nuclear weapons programme in return for food, oil and help with a civilian light-water reactor. But Mr Bush wanted no truck with dictators. He also had evidence that North Korea was running a (tiny) secret uranium enrichment programme in addition to the Yongbyon plutonium facility.
The world is now paying the price for Mr Bush’s refusal to sup with the devil. Worryingly, Pyongyang’s drive towards full nuclear status may no longer be aimed at getting Washington’s attention. Internal dynamics over the succession of Kim Jong-il, the frail dictator, and a diplomatic stand-off with the conservative administration now running South Korea have gathered a momentum of their own.
That leaves the parties that deal directly with North Korea – the US, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia – with almost no room for manoeuvre. The best but diminishing hope is a return to the agreed framework. That would require dialogue in which the west offered incentives – including a security guarantee and possibly civilian nuclear technology – in return for verifiable dismantlement of North Korea’s weapons programme.
Nothing can be offered now to reward Pyongyang for its deliberate provocation. In the short term, the US should press for sanctions targeting the regime rather than its people. Here the Bush administration’s freezing of North Korean financial assets – a measure that palpably hurt the regime before – points the way forward. China, which fears a collapsed North Korea even more than a nuclear one, must also be persuaded to join in tightening the noose. Seoul might even consider closing the Kaesong industrial complex, symbol of its wrecked Sunshine policy.
All this would no doubt elicit more bluster from Pyongyang – which might even try to provoke low-level skirmishes with Seoul. But with well-judged sticks and credible carrots, Pyongyang might come back to the table. Then the west should hold its nose and offer to restore what the Bush administration so recklessly took away.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
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