The Australian quotes my comments on Sino-Japanese relations

The Australian, Australia's national daily newspaper, quoted my comments on Sino-Japanese relations. Thanks much, The Australian! Cheers, Kosuke

US, Asia unite against Chinese provocation

By Rick Wallace and Michael Sainsbury

The Australian October 02, 2010

OKINAWA Governor Hirokazu Nakaima announced this week he planned to visit the uninhabited and rocky Senkaku Islands.

The outcrops have been the subject of the bitter recriminations between Tokyo and Beijing.

His provocative trip is best seen as populist domestic politics from a man who is facing re-election. The trouble is, the visit could reignite the bitter clash between China and Japan that has seen an icy tension spread throughout East Asia these past two weeks.

The long disputed rocky islets 400km west of Okinawa shot to prominence on September 8 when Japan arrested a Chinese skipper caught fishing illegally in nearby waters.

China, which also lays claim to the islands, exploded over the arrest, ratcheting the pressure on Japan up to unspecified threats of "further action" from Premier Wen Jiabao, which eventually secured the captain's release by a cowed Japanese government.

But while China rejoiced in a successful display of its increasing strength, the spat has given the US and its allies a clear picture of the kind of belligerence it can expect from Beijing.

Kosuke Takahashi, a correspondent for Jane's Defence Weekly and specialist on Sino-Japanese security issues, said China's reaction was excessive and Japan's capitulation was weak.

But he said the net result was that while China won the domestic battle, Japan got the better of the dispute in the international sense because it had established a fresh anti-China consensus in the Asia Pacific.

"If you look at the editorials in Southeast Asia and the US in major newspapers, you can see China overreacted," he said. "South Korea also has issues with China over the Socotra Rock. The Philippines and Vietnam have territorial issues with China. Those countries look at the Chinese reaction and they are worried."

Mr Takahashi said China's move would also draw the US and Japan closer together. He said Japan could not afford to increase defence spending and China's aggression over the Senkaku Islands had effectively guaranteed the presence of US troops on Okinawa despite local resistance.

China estimates the trough basin under the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea holds nearly 17.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 20 million barrels of oil. Talks on joint development of the resource have broken down.

The head of the East Asia program at the Lowy Institute, Malcolm Cook, said China's disproportionate response was part of a broader pattern of behaviour.

"It's certainly given an example of China's actions that don't fit a 'peaceful rise' narrative or a 'harmonious world' one," he said.

Dr Cook said the change in China's posture could also be seen in the Yellow Sea, where Beijing criticised US-South Korean exercises and conducted its own war games, and in the South China Sea, where it continues to press a hard line in a territorial dispute with Vietnam. He agreed it would boost ties among US allies in the Asia Pacific.

University of NSW professor Carl Thayer wrote in Southeast Asia: Patterns of Defence, a paper released this week, that China's emergence as a great power could make it a potential strategic competitor of the US across the Asia Pacific and in Southeast Asia. "The dynamics of Sino-American relations will have a major impact on the security environment in Southeast Asia," he wrote.

Mr Nakaima's proposed visit will again test the mettle of both sides.

Additional reporting: AFP