(My latest story for Jane's Defence Weekly) US, Japan revise realignment plans for US forces

ASIA PACIFIC Date Posted: 27-Apr-2012 Jane's Defence Weekly US, Japan revise realignment plans for US forces Kosuke Takahashi JDW Correspondent Tokyo James Hardy JDW Asia-Pacific Editor London Key Points The US and Japan have unveiled a new agreement on the realignment of US forces currently based in Okinawa Prefecture The agreement moves forward with plans to relocate 9,000 US marines outside Japan without resolving the contentious Futenma air base replacement The United States and Japan on 26 April unveiled a revised agreement to transfer 9,000 US Marine Corps (USMC) troops from Okinawa Prefecture to Guam and other bases in the Western Pacific: a move intended to reduce the impact of US bases on the southern Japanese island chain. The accord, which updates a 2006 agreement on the realignment of US forces in Japan, will relocate about 5,000 marines from Okinawa to Guam - a US territory - and the remaining 4,000 to Hawaii and Australia. About 10,000 troops will remain in Okinawa. ''These adjustments are necessary to realise a US force posture in the Asia-Pacific region that is more geographically distributed, operationally resilient and politically sustainable,'' the joint statement said. The statement also opens up the possibility of reviewing a long-standing plan to relocate Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma. The local government has demanded the closure of the Futenma site, which is situated in a built-up area, but has rejected a plan to construct a sea-based replacement facility off Camp Schwab in the north of the island. While the agreement said this "remains the only viable solution that has been identified to date", the phrase "that has been identified to date" is an addition to previous statements. Another new development is a plan to consider developing sites in Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, such as the Tinian and Pagan islands, as shared-use exercise facilities for US forces and the Japan Self-Defence Forces. The agreement also confirmed that six military facilities south of Kadena Air Base will be returned to Japan, including Camp Kuwae, Camp Zukeran and MCAS Futenma, although the air station will remain open until a replacement is operational, a senior US official said. The two governments said the total cost of relocating marines and their dependents from Okinawa to Guam would be lowered to USD8.6 billion from the original USD10.27 billion. However, the cost to Japan has risen from a maximum of USD2.8 billion to USD3.1 billion, compensating for inflation. COMMENT The revised realignment is a partial victory for local residents and the prefectural government, both of which have faced down immense pressure from Tokyo to agree to the 2006 realignment plan and, in particular, the relocation of MCAS Futenma to the north of Okinawa island. A senior Obama administration official admitted as much in a background briefing, saying that "we've been spending so much time talking about the move from Futenma that we're not making as much progress as we would have liked in other aspects of the alliance". A senior Pentagon official concurred, admitting that the revised agreement relaxed the commitment to the Futenma replacement plan to give "the government of Japan the political space that it needs to advance the issue on Okinawa". US officials are eager to describe this agreement as naturally fitting a renewed focus on the region. The Pentagon official said it would provide "an improved USMC force posture in the Asia-Pacific, one that is more capable and more geographically distributed. This presence is integral to our larger strategy of rebalancing towards the Asia-Pacific". The official added that by removing a key sticking point the US-Japan alliance could focus on "a forward-looking agenda ... including co-operation in cyber security, in space, in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations. A number of areas where we really, I think, have a shared interest in deepening our co-operation". No timeline has been set for the realignment, but a number of actors could affect how quickly it occurs. These include senior members of the US Senate Armed Services Committee, who already said they were concerned about the cost of the realignment, and Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima.                       Under realignment plans announced on 26 April, the US will return six facilities on Okinawa to Japan, including Camp Kuwae, Camp Zukeran and Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma. (IHS/Roberto Filistad) Related Articles US, Japan postpone report on force realignment, jdw.janes.com, 26.04.12 Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2012

(My latest for Asia Times) Phoenix-like Ozawa set to re-ignite Japan

Phoenix-like Ozawa set to re-ignite Japan
Political kingpin Ichiro Ozawa would probably have had a stint as Japanese premier by now, had an investigation into corrupt funding not forced him to quit as Democratic Party of Japan chief in 2009. With a Tokyo court clearing him of all charges, the way is now clear for him to rise from the ashes and challenge incumbent Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's flagging leadership over the burning issue of a tax hike.
- Kosuke Takahashi (Apr 26, '12)

Phoenix-like Ozawa set to re-ignite Japan By Kosuke Takahashi TOKYO - No Japanese politician has suffered such tumultuous torment as Ichiro Ozawa in recent years. By snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, the former Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) chief is about to rise, phoenix-like, to power again in Tokyo. Ozawa, 69, a long-time heavyweight in Japanese politics, was found not guilty of breaking political funding laws in a ruling handed down by the Tokyo District Court on Thursday. Under investigation, he was forced to resign as party leader in May 2009 - just ahead of a major power shift in Japan's de facto one-party dominance of government in the post-war era. Without investigators' probes, Japan's kingpin Ozawa would have been the nation's prime minister two-and-a-half years ago. His win in a court of law secures a comeback that has far-reaching implications on both domestic and international fronts. With Ozawa and his cohorts - who constitute the largest faction in the ruling DPJ - strongly opposing a consumption tax hike proposal, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is expected to lose his centripetal force of political power. Ozawa, viewed as pro-China, is also expected to rock the dynamics of Japan-US-China relations. "This absolutory sentence will cause fatal damage on the already suffering Noda administration," Minoru Morita, a noted political analyst in Tokyo, told Asia Times Online on Thursday. "A consumption tax hike becomes impossible now." Noda has repeatedly said he vows to realize the tax hike at the expense of his political life. He even expressed his intention to double the consumption tax to 10% by the mid-2010s at the Group of 20 summit meeting in Cannes, France, last November, virtually making the tax hike an international pledge. Advancing toward a tax hike with the economy still fragile in the aftermath of last year's earthquake and tsunami is bad timing on the part of Noda. According to a poll conducted between April 20 and April 22 by the Nikkei Shimbun and TV Tokyo, 29% of respondents approved of his cabinet, while 62% disapproved, the worst showing since he took office in September 2011. "The majority of lawmakers in both the DPJ and the opposition Liberal Democratic Party [LDP] are against a tax hike," Morita said. "With Ozawa restarting to move ahead actively from now on, campaigns against a consumption tax hike will get momentum." In an online broadcast last week, Ozawa signaled that he planned to run in the party's next presidential election in September, meaning if he wins he is the next prime minister. Illegal searches In January 2011, Ozawa was indicted by a citizen judicial panel for alleged involvement in falsifying political funding reports on 400 million yen (about US$5 million), in violation of the Political Funds Control Law. Although the trial had focused on whether Ozawa's aides falsified records and whether he was notified and had approved of the falsification, the Tokyo District Court on February 17, 2012, rejected adopting as evidence most of the depositions taken by the investigative team from the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office from one of the former aides. The court found the depositions were not credible since Tokyo prosecutors used illegal tactics to obtain them. Why did prosecutors press ahead against Ozawa even by means of unlawful tactics? Political observers such as Morita view that since Ozawa has advocated shifting decision-making responsibility from bureaucrats to politicians, he provoked a major backlash in the nation's ponderous bureaucracy. Powerful politicians such as Ozawa, who boldly aims to tackle national problems through strong-arm tactics and risk-taking to confront and rein in the bloated bureaucracy, could be a major threat for Japan's mainstream conservative political elites, ruled by officialdom in Tokyo. Many view this led to the arrest of his aides over political donations by public prosecutors and their accusations against him. "This problem happened just ahead of the 2009 general election, which was about to bring about a change of government," Ozawa said in an interview with a Japanese weekly magazine in January. "Although there was no conclusive evidence, prosecutors conducted a criminal investigation into the head of the largest opposition party, which might cause regime change soon. Something like this ought not to be allowed in a democratic society." Japanese weekly magazines have criticized the Japanese mass media, most notably the conservative Yomiuri Shimbun, as repeatedly portraying Ozawa as the villain by running damaging stories about him based on a constant leak from prosecutors. "The Japanese mass media won't become unrepentant this time as well," Morita said. "You know what they are?" As for domestic problems, Ozawa has also criticized the Noda cabinet's move to push the reactivation of two reactors at Kansai Electric Power Co's Oi nuclear plant in Fukui prefecture. International implications In the past, Ozawa has irritated the US by saying the US Navy's 7th Fleet, based in Yokosuka, Kanagawa prefecture, would be enough to secure the US military presence in the Asia-Pacific region from a strategic viewpoint - suggesting that he supported the withdrawal of all other US forces from Japan. In addition, Ozawa has been critical of Noda on Japan's participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. "Although this is also applied to the issue of moving Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa, Japan cannot equally talk to the US without showing what kind of the role Japan will play clearly. The problems lie in Japan's negotiating capabilities and the system," Ozawa said in an interview with the Asahi Shimbun in February. Ozawa's comeback to the center of the Japanese politics may ease the nation's tensions with China. In December 2009, Ozawa, then secretary general of the DPJ, accompanied more than 600 people, including 143 DPJ lawmakers from the upper and lower houses of the Diet (parliament), to Beijing. The visit was conducted as part of regular exchanges between the DPJ and the Chinese Communist Party, whose general secretary is Chinese President Hu Jintao. Ozawa is widely viewed as pro-China. His background and roots go back to a group founded by late prime minister Kakuei Tanaka, which signed a Japan-China joint communique that helped normalize diplomatic relations with China in 1972. But Morita disagreed with this view. "He is different from Tanaka, so he is not pro-China by his nature." Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for IHS Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke (Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

(My latest for Asia Times Online): US plays a bit part in Pyongyang's parade

US plays a bit part in Pyongyang's parade
Inclusion of a US maker's diesel engine and a German manufacturer's automatic transmission system in a missile launch vehicle seen in a military parade raises questions over the efficacy of international efforts to contain North Korea's nuclear weapons threat. The parts won't spare blushes in the American administration for admonishing China's technological role in Pyongyang.
- Kosuke Takahashi (Apr 23, '12)



US plays a bit part in Pyongyang's paradeBy Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - Are the United States and Germany birds of a feather flocking together with China?

A US maker's diesel engine and a German manufacturer's automatic transmission system may have been used for a missile launch vehicle seen in a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, raising questions over the efficacy of the international effort to contain and reverse Pyongyang's nuclear weapons threat, Asia Times Online has learned.

Although the US has raised allegations that China has supplied North Korea with technology for its missile program, the US itself would be under fire over having provided some help for North Korea's mobile missile technology, whether indirectly or not.

Military experts around the world have pointed out the 16-wheeler transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) vehicle that transported North Korea's new missile in Pyongyang on April 15 appeared to very similar to the WS-51200, manufactured by the 9th Academy of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), also known as the Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Co Ltd. [1] This maker of special-purpose vehicles produces the WS series of TELs that are used to deploy the DF-11, DF-16 and DF-21 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles made by the CASIC, the large state-owned hi-tech enterprise under direct control of China's central government.




"For the US, this is as if a ladder were taken off suddenly," Narushige Michishita, an associate professor of security and international studies at National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, told Asia Times Online. "Amid international frustration against China's stance against North Korea, the US seems to have aimed to take this opportunity to press hard on Beijing further. But it may now become difficult."

According to the Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Co's website, the US diesel engine manufacturer Cummins Inc, listed on the New York Stock Exchange, provided its KTTA19-C700 diesel engine for the WS-51200. Meanwhile, German's ZF Friedrichshafen, one of the world's leading automotive industry suppliers specializing in driveline and chassis technologies, supplied its automatic transmission called WSK440+16S251 for the WS-51200.

Breach of UNSC resolutions?
Providing a TEL to Pyongyang would put the nation responsible in breach of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1874, which was adopted in June 2009 and prohibits supplying North Korea with "any arms or related materiel, or providing financial transactions, technical training, services or assistance related to such arms".

The TEL would also have been banned under UNSC Resolution 1718, which was adopted in October 2006 in the aftermath of the North's first nuclear test in the same month. Those sanctions prohibit the import of any "vehicles designed or modified for the transport, handling, control, activation and launching" of "complete rocket systems (including ballistic missile systems, space launch vehicles and sounding rockets)".

Apparently uninformed about a US diesel engine maker's indirect involvement in Chinese-made special-purpose vehicle WS-51200, US State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland on April 20 told reporters that the US raised the issue during ongoing talks with the Chinese government on North Korea.

United States Defense Secretary Leon Panetta also said in US Congressional testimony on April 19 that he was "sure there has been some help coming from China. I don't know the exact extent of that ... but clearly there has been assistance along those lines".

Panetta also said the US was concerned about "the mobile capabilities that were on display in the parade recently in North Korea. The bottom line is that if they have a mobile capability to have ICBMs [inter-continental ballistic missiles] deployed in that manner then that increases the threat from North Korea".

The Chinese government has denied its involvement and sanctions-busting. Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin told a regular news briefing on April 19 that China was against the spread of weapons of mass destruction and carriers for such weapons.

A Chinese company is suspected of providing components for a mobile missile platform showcased in a recent parade in North Korea, Reuters reported on Saturday quoting a US official. "The [Barack] Obama administration suspects the Chinese manufacturer sold the chassis - not the entire vehicle - and may have believed it was for civilian purposes, which means it would not be an intentional violation of UN sanctions," the news agency said.

The US State Department said it believed Chinese assurances that it was adhering to UN sanctions. ''I think we take them at their word,'' spokesman Mark Toner told reporters on April 19.

Mystery of WS-51200
The WS-51200 resembles the vehicle that carried the North Korea's new missile, which was unveiled on 15 April at a parade in Pyongyang marking the centenary of founder Kim Il-sung's birth.

It has a gross vehicle mass of 122 tons and it can carry a load of 80 tons. It measures 20.11 meters long, 3.35 meters wide, 3.35 meters high. The diameter of the tire is 1.6 meter. The length of that new missile on the vehicle is about 18 meter, bigger than North Korea's mobile intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) Musudan but smaller than its long-range missile Taepodong-2, which showed an unabashed failure of the rocket launch on April 13.

Military experts around the world are now figuring out if this is a new type of IRBM or a new intercontinental ballistic missile(ICBM) or just a mock for a military parade, not real one.

The CASIC announced in October 2010 that it had closed a contract to export WS-51200 with a certain nation, presumably North Korea, and that the amount of contact with that nation was 30 million yuan (US$4.75 million) including an advance payment of 12 million yuan. [2]

Then, in May 2011 the CASIC also announced its subsidiary company successfully finished developing WS-51200. [3]

The Mainichi Shimbun, a Japanese daily newspaper, on April 16 reported from Beijing that by citing intelligence community, Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle CO loaded four WS-51200 vehicles onto a ship with Cambodian nationality around August 2011. This ship headed for North Korea's Namp'o port, the newspaper said.

Notes
1. See here.
2. See here.
3. See here.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)