Damage control, not the end of nukes
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - Although the nuclear deal between North Korea and the United States may help defuse spiraling tensions in East Asia, it represents a harsh new reality: US nuclear diplomacy is unable to "end" North Korea's nuclear weapons program. Rather, it can only halt it.
With American foreign policy swamped with Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere, the Barack Obama administration apparently aims to just "manage and control" the US relationship with North Korea - by keeping it from escalating out of control.
Experts expect North Korea's actions this time may pave the way for a resumption of the six-party talks, but the talks would be more aimed at arms control and disarmament of the Korean peninsula, rather than its denuclearization.
On Wednesday, Washington and Pyongyang announced that North Korea had agreed to implement a moratorium on long-range missile launches, nuclear tests, and nuclear activities at its Yongbyon research center including uranium enrichment activities, in return for US food aid.
But on the same day, key differences on the agreement emerged. The US said Pyongyang has agreed to monitoring of its plutonium program and uranium enrichment activities by the International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA), while the North did not confirm this.
In any case, the US and South Korean intelligence agencies know there are other uranium enrichment facilities besides Yongbyon - North Korea only offered Yongbyon up as a concession while hiding other cards, in a classic salami-slice strategy.
A hungry child knows no politics
The US is to provide 240,000 tonnes of nutritional aid such as corn-soy blend, vegetable oil and therapeutic foods for children under the age of 6, pregnant women and elderly citizens to meet the North's urgent needs.
Interestingly enough, the tonnage of nutritional assistance is almost the same amount then Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi offered in May 2004 in return for the family members of five former abductees by North Korea.
Pyongyang is no doubt desperate for food. A call made in a joint New Year's Day editorial by three major North Korean newspapers on January 1 that were considered Pyongyang's policy guidelines for the new year stressed increased efforts in the country to address food shortages, which it said are a ''burning issue in building a thriving country".
For the US, bilateral negotiations with North Korea on humanitarian assistance such as food aid, as well as on the hunt for the remains of soldiers missing-in-action from the Korean War, have been always possible even amid intensified tensions.
This is because the traditional US food aid policy is based on the slogan of "a hungry child knows no politics," as the late president Ronald Reagan said, although every famine is complicated by politics.
Buying time and putting off the inevitable
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the current consensus view in the Obama administration appears to be that the North Korean problem is best managed through diplomacy. A CSIS study shows that over the past 35 years, Pyongyang has not fired missiles or torpedoed ships when its diplomats are sitting at the table with Americans (with one exception in 1998).
Obama's personal mission to advocate "a world without nuclear weapons" is fading, especially when a nuclear Iran seems ever more imminent. But he needs to keep Pyongyang from conducting a third nuclear bomb test in the lead-up to the US presidential election due this November. The US may want to grasp an understanding for the newly born Kim Jong-eun's rule via bilateral talks and the six-party talks - involving the US, Japan, South and North Korea, China and Russia.
"Please note that the United States has long said that we will never accept North Korea as a nuclear power," Pentagon spokesperson Leslie Hull-Ryde told Asia Times Online.
For Pyongyang, all of the recent movements may be just dilatory efforts. Military experts expect the North would develop intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying downsized nuclear warheads and reaching the US mainland, which would significantly strengthen the North's hand and deepen the security fears of regional rivals such as Japan and South Korea.
There is a widespread view among experts that Pyongyang will not and cannot abandon its nuclear and missile development, despite any compromises by the Obama administration as it eagerly seeks another foreign-policy success in this election year.
For young leader Kim Jong-eun, nuclear-tipped missiles are still the strongest weapon and best deterrent against regime collapse in the Hermit Kingdom. He will hang on to them by all means.
The existing six-party talks could be set aside and a foreign ministerial meeting be held among six nations "to discuss the issue of peace, security and economic cooperation," George Washington University's Kim said. "By way of that foreign ministerial meeting, bilateral talks between North Korea and the US, between South and North Koreas, and between Japan and North Korea, can be held."
Lee Jong Won, professor of International Politics at Rikkyo University, echoed Kim's views.
"Professor Kim's proposal is based on realism," Lee said. "Future six-party talks could be reclassified as 'disarmament' negotiations, rather than aiming at the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. It would be more like Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, which adopted the Helsinki Declaration."
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke
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