Friday, December 24, 2010
Thursday, December 23, 2010
(Yonhap) N. Korea's latest IRBM believed to be able to carry nuclear warhead: expert
N. Korea's latest IRBM believed to be able to carry nuclear warhead: expert
SEOUL, Dec. 23 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's latest intermediate-range ballistic missile, which appeared in Pyongyang's military parade in October, is believed to be capable of delivering a nuclear weapon, a South Korean researcher said Thursday.
Han Sang-soon, a senior researcher at the Defense Agency for Technology and Quality, said in a report made public Thursday that the missile, known as the BM-25 Musudan, is estimated to be able to carry a payload weighing between 1-1.2 tons and that its "circular error probability," an accuracy indicator, is believed to be 1.6 kilometers.
"This means that it can carry a nuclear warhead," he said in the report.
North Korea completed development of the Musudan in 2005 based on the design of the former Soviet Union's R-27 (SS-N-6) short-range missile. The Musudan has a range of between 3,000-4,000 kilometers, and about 50 missiles of the type were deployed in the North as of last year.
In October, the North showed off Musudan missiles during a massive military parade held in Pyongyang to mark the 65th anniversary of the ruling Workers' Party.
North Korea's missile program has long been a security concern in the region, along with its nuclear programs. The country's Taepodong-2 long-range ballistic missile is believed to be capable of reaching as far as Alaska, according to defense experts.
Experts also believe that the North has some 700 Scud short-range missiles and about 200 Rodong medium-range missiles.
(END)
SEOUL, Dec. 23 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's latest intermediate-range ballistic missile, which appeared in Pyongyang's military parade in October, is believed to be capable of delivering a nuclear weapon, a South Korean researcher said Thursday.
Han Sang-soon, a senior researcher at the Defense Agency for Technology and Quality, said in a report made public Thursday that the missile, known as the BM-25 Musudan, is estimated to be able to carry a payload weighing between 1-1.2 tons and that its "circular error probability," an accuracy indicator, is believed to be 1.6 kilometers.
"This means that it can carry a nuclear warhead," he said in the report.
North Korea completed development of the Musudan in 2005 based on the design of the former Soviet Union's R-27 (SS-N-6) short-range missile. The Musudan has a range of between 3,000-4,000 kilometers, and about 50 missiles of the type were deployed in the North as of last year.
In October, the North showed off Musudan missiles during a massive military parade held in Pyongyang to mark the 65th anniversary of the ruling Workers' Party.
North Korea's missile program has long been a security concern in the region, along with its nuclear programs. The country's Taepodong-2 long-range ballistic missile is believed to be capable of reaching as far as Alaska, according to defense experts.
Experts also believe that the North has some 700 Scud short-range missiles and about 200 Rodong medium-range missiles.
(END)
Monday, December 20, 2010
My latest story for Asia Times Online (Japan gets tough with new defense policy)
Japan gets tough with new defense policy
Japan has announced plans to adopt a new, more aggressive defense posture over the next 10 years. The policy shift comes amid rising regional tensions, triggered by Sino-Japanese territorial disputes, the sinking of a South Korean warship in March and North Korea's bombardment of a South Korean island last month. - Kosuke Takahashi (Dec 20, '10)
Japan gets tough with new defense policy
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - Faced with increasingly territorial belligerence from China and warmongering from North Korea, Japan has decided to adopt a new defense policy that aims to bolster more proactive, flexible and quick responses in the sea, land and air during the next decade - a big departure from a previous passive and pacifist defense posture.
The Japanese government on December 17 announced the new defense policy, officially called the National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG), that will define the country's basic security policy for the next 10 years. The guidelines have drawn close attention from the international community, as they are the first defense policy that the center-left Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has formulated since ousting the pro-US Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) last year.
This posture has also captured public attention because it was mapped out amid rising regional tensions, triggered by territorial disputes between China and Japan, the sinking of a South Korean warship in March and North Korea's bombardment of a South Korean island in November.
The new policy includes a proactive concept called the "Dynamic Defense Force" that aims to "increase the credibility of Japan's deterrent capability by promoting timely and active operations." This supersedes the previous, passive "Basic Defense Force Concept", built around the idea of "static deterrence". The guidelines see military modernization by China and its insufficient transparency as a "concern for the regional and global community." They also point to North Korea's nuclear and missile development programs as "immediate and grave destabilizing factors for regional security."
"For Japan, North Korea is an immediate threat," said Hideshi Takesada, professor and executive director at the National Institute for Defense Studies in Tokyo. "Meanwhile, China is Japan's medium to long-term concern, as it is boosting its submarine forces and anti-satellite weapons programs. China also has outer-space capacity to attack a US carrier by using a GPS (Global Positioning System)."
Departure from the Cold War-era posture
The new defense policy calls for a reorganization of Japanese troops. While reducing Cold War-era equipment and organizations, especially Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) personnel in Hokkaido prefecture, the northernmost part of Japan facing Russia, it stresses the necessity to boost security around the Nansei Islands in Okinawa prefecture in the country's south, and in the East China Sea near China and Taiwan, a move that is apparently aimed at countering China's growing naval power. The JGSDF will also deploy coastal monitoring troops in some of the Nansei Islands, the nation's remotest area.
The quota for JGSDF personnel was reduced to 154,000 in 10 years from the current 155,000, the new NDPG showed.
As part of Japan's efforts to step up vigilance in the sea around Japan, The Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD) decided to increase the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) submarine fleet to 22 from the current 16 by extending the working life of existing submarines. It will also increase the number of its Aegis-equipped destroyers, which carry the US/Japanese-developed Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) anti-ballistic-missile system, to six from the current four. Specifically, a ministry official said it would upgrade JDS Atago (DDG-177) and JS Ashigara (DDG-178).
As for air defense, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) Naha Base in Okinawa will add one more JASDF Tactical Fighter Squadron for a total of two. The JASDF will also boost its deployment of Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptor missiles to six air-defense groups across Japan from the current three, to counter the threat of North Korean and Chinese ballistic missiles, and enhance the performance of Aegis destroyers.
The national defense budget for the next five years will be around 23.49 trillion yen (US$279 billion), down by 750 billion yen from fiscal 2005-2009 due to Japan’s increasing budget deficit.
The new NDPG also calls for Japan to strengthen its defense cooperation with those countries with which it shares democratic values, like South Korea, Australia and India, in addition to its key ally, the United States, with whom it will also work to counter cyber attacks.
The defense guidelines said Japan "will study measures to follow the international trend of defense equipment," but did not clearly mention a review of Japan's longstanding arms-export ban due to protests by opposition lawmakers, whose support the government and ruling bloc cannot afford to lose as it seeks to pass key bills for fiscal 2011. But the door is still open for a possible future lifting of the export ban, a politically sensitive issue given Tokyo's pacifist constitution.
The guidelines also detailed a plan to create a Japanese version of the US National Security Council, aimed at dealing more effectively with diplomatic and security policies, without any sectionalism among related ministries.
China's response
Beijing has accused Tokyo of making irresponsible remarks in its new defense guidelines targeting China.
"The fact is that China's development since the reform and opening up has brought great opportunities for common prosperity to other countries in the world, including Japan," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said on December 17. "This is widely recognized and the international community will have a fair opinion on this. A certain individual country has no right to represent the international community and make irresponsible remarks on China's development."
Singaporean Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said that Japanese naval power was stronger than China’s, but he saw the tide reversed in 10 years.
"Normally you [Japan] have better ships than they have. But they will build an aircraft carrier. So in 10 years they will have a bigger fleet than you, so you have to factor that into your calculations. These are the realities of power," he told the Strait Times in late September.
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based correspondent.
(Copyright 2010 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Japan gets tough with new defense policy
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - Faced with increasingly territorial belligerence from China and warmongering from North Korea, Japan has decided to adopt a new defense policy that aims to bolster more proactive, flexible and quick responses in the sea, land and air during the next decade - a big departure from a previous passive and pacifist defense posture.
The Japanese government on December 17 announced the new defense policy, officially called the National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG), that will define the country's basic security policy for the next 10 years. The guidelines have drawn close attention from the international community, as they are the first defense policy that the center-left Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has formulated since ousting the pro-US Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) last year.
This posture has also captured public attention because it was mapped out amid rising regional tensions, triggered by territorial disputes between China and Japan, the sinking of a South Korean warship in March and North Korea's bombardment of a South Korean island in November.
The new policy includes a proactive concept called the "Dynamic Defense Force" that aims to "increase the credibility of Japan's deterrent capability by promoting timely and active operations." This supersedes the previous, passive "Basic Defense Force Concept", built around the idea of "static deterrence". The guidelines see military modernization by China and its insufficient transparency as a "concern for the regional and global community." They also point to North Korea's nuclear and missile development programs as "immediate and grave destabilizing factors for regional security."
"For Japan, North Korea is an immediate threat," said Hideshi Takesada, professor and executive director at the National Institute for Defense Studies in Tokyo. "Meanwhile, China is Japan's medium to long-term concern, as it is boosting its submarine forces and anti-satellite weapons programs. China also has outer-space capacity to attack a US carrier by using a GPS (Global Positioning System)."
Departure from the Cold War-era posture
The new defense policy calls for a reorganization of Japanese troops. While reducing Cold War-era equipment and organizations, especially Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) personnel in Hokkaido prefecture, the northernmost part of Japan facing Russia, it stresses the necessity to boost security around the Nansei Islands in Okinawa prefecture in the country's south, and in the East China Sea near China and Taiwan, a move that is apparently aimed at countering China's growing naval power. The JGSDF will also deploy coastal monitoring troops in some of the Nansei Islands, the nation's remotest area.
The quota for JGSDF personnel was reduced to 154,000 in 10 years from the current 155,000, the new NDPG showed.
As part of Japan's efforts to step up vigilance in the sea around Japan, The Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD) decided to increase the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) submarine fleet to 22 from the current 16 by extending the working life of existing submarines. It will also increase the number of its Aegis-equipped destroyers, which carry the US/Japanese-developed Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) anti-ballistic-missile system, to six from the current four. Specifically, a ministry official said it would upgrade JDS Atago (DDG-177) and JS Ashigara (DDG-178).
As for air defense, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) Naha Base in Okinawa will add one more JASDF Tactical Fighter Squadron for a total of two. The JASDF will also boost its deployment of Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptor missiles to six air-defense groups across Japan from the current three, to counter the threat of North Korean and Chinese ballistic missiles, and enhance the performance of Aegis destroyers.
The national defense budget for the next five years will be around 23.49 trillion yen (US$279 billion), down by 750 billion yen from fiscal 2005-2009 due to Japan’s increasing budget deficit.
The new NDPG also calls for Japan to strengthen its defense cooperation with those countries with which it shares democratic values, like South Korea, Australia and India, in addition to its key ally, the United States, with whom it will also work to counter cyber attacks.
The defense guidelines said Japan "will study measures to follow the international trend of defense equipment," but did not clearly mention a review of Japan's longstanding arms-export ban due to protests by opposition lawmakers, whose support the government and ruling bloc cannot afford to lose as it seeks to pass key bills for fiscal 2011. But the door is still open for a possible future lifting of the export ban, a politically sensitive issue given Tokyo's pacifist constitution.
The guidelines also detailed a plan to create a Japanese version of the US National Security Council, aimed at dealing more effectively with diplomatic and security policies, without any sectionalism among related ministries.
China's response
Beijing has accused Tokyo of making irresponsible remarks in its new defense guidelines targeting China.
"The fact is that China's development since the reform and opening up has brought great opportunities for common prosperity to other countries in the world, including Japan," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said on December 17. "This is widely recognized and the international community will have a fair opinion on this. A certain individual country has no right to represent the international community and make irresponsible remarks on China's development."
Singaporean Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said that Japanese naval power was stronger than China’s, but he saw the tide reversed in 10 years.
"Normally you [Japan] have better ships than they have. But they will build an aircraft carrier. So in 10 years they will have a bigger fleet than you, so you have to factor that into your calculations. These are the realities of power," he told the Strait Times in late September.
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based correspondent.
(Copyright 2010 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
My latest stories for Jane's Defence Weekly
Here are my latest stories for Jane's Defence Weekly. I wrote about Japan's new defense policy and Japan's 'sympathy budget' towards the US, or the nation's financial support for the US troops based in the nation.
Japan to adopt a proactive defence policy
Kosuke Takahashi
JDW Correspondent
Tokyo
Additional reporting by Jon Grevatt
Asia-Pacific Reporter
Bangkok
Key Points
Japan's defence policy during the next decade will be based on a doctrine of proactive, flexible and quick responses to threats facing the country in what is a major departure from its previous policy of "static deterrence".
The National Defence Programme Guidelines (NDPG) released on 17 December show a Japan concerned over China's emergence as a global and regional superpower and North Korea's nuclear and missile programmes. The policy guideline, which will define the country's basic security policy for the next 10 years, is the first formulated by the centre-left Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government since it replaced the pro-US Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) last year.
The guideline includes a new concept called "Dynamic Defence Force" that supercedes the passive "Basic Defence Force Concept" and aims to "increase the credibility of Japan's deterrent capability by promoting timely and active operations". The publication of the guideline was accompanied by the approval of a mid-term defence programme by the Cabinet of Prime Minister Naoto Kan.
China's military modernisation and its lack of transparency are called a "concern for the regional and global community", while North Korea's nuclear and missile development programmes are "immediate and grave destabilising factors to the regional security".
Cold War-era equipment, organisations and forces structures will be reorganised. The number of Japan Ground Self-Defence Force (JGSDF) personnel in Hokkaido, which faces Russia, will be reduced - taking the total number of JGSDF personnel to 154,000 from the current 155,000, and coastal monitoring troops will be deployed to some of the Nansei Islands in the East China Sea to counter China's growing naval power.
The Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF) submarine fleet will increase to 22 from the current 16 by extending the working life of existing submarines. The number of Aegis-equipped destroyers, which carry the US/Japanese-developed Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Block IIA anti-ballistic missile system, will increase to six from the current four. Specially, the Ministry of Defence said it will upgrade JDS Atago (DDG-177) and JS A shigara (DDG-178).
The Japan Air Self-Defence Force (JASDF) will increase the number of tactical fighter squadrons based at Naha Base in Okinawa to two from the current one. The JASDF will also deploy Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptor missiles to six air defence missile groups from the current three to counter the threat of North Korea's and China's ballistic missiles.
The NDPG made no specific reference to the Three Principles policy banning defence exports after opposition parties indicated that they would block the government's budget bill were it to push ahead with lifting the longstanding policy.
Instead, the NDPG says "measures" should be considered in the "global environment" where joint programmes to develop military equipment have become the norm. The NDPG highlights the benefits of increased co-operation in military development programmes as necessary to respond to rising costs. It adds that Japan should discuss such "major changes" to strategies in order to enhance local industry.
An official from Nippon Keidanren - the Japan Business Federation - told Jane's that, despite the fall in defence expenditure and the retention of the Three Principles policy, the NDPG was good news for Japan's defence industry, which has shrunk considerably during the past five years as companies seek alternative streams of revenue.
Satoshi Mukuta, a director of international affairs at Nippon Keidanren and secretary general of the organisation's defence production committee, said: "The NDPG said nothing about the Three Principles, but, on the other hand, the government stated that they will try to make it possible for the Japanese defence industry to join international development and production programmes."
He added: "The defence budget [outlined in the policy] will only be very slightly less than in recent years, so we can say that overall the policy is progress. The government is trying to ease Japanese industry's participation into international programmes to improve our industrial and technological base. This means that the new NDPG is an important step forward."
Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2010
Japan to adopt a proactive defence policy
Kosuke Takahashi
JDW Correspondent
Tokyo
Asia-Pacific Reporter
Bangkok
- Japan has published a defence guideline that repositions its forces to counter emerging Chinese activities in the East China Sea
- Naval forces are being strengthened, but the ban on defence exports remains
Japan and US agree to maintain current cost of 'sympathy budget'
Kosuke Takahashi
JDW Correspondent
Tokyo
Japan and the US have agreed that Japan's financial support for the US troops based in the country will stay at current levels for the next five years from Fiscal Year 2011 (FY11) starting in April.
Under the five-year agreement between the two countries, Japan will earmark the existing annual amount of JPY188.1 billion (USD2.3 billion) for five years from FY11, the Japanese Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced on 14 December.
Measures were made to reduce the burden on Japan. The number of local support staff, whose work on US bases includes entertainment facilities such as bars and golf courses and whose personnel costs are covered by the Japanese government, will be cut by 430 to 22,625. The share of Japan's contribution towards US utility bills is also to be reduced from 76 per cent to 72 per cent.
The US had requested more money, claiming that its presence had proven to be a stabilising influence in the region and that the bilateral alliance was increasingly significant in view of recent strategic and military moves by North Korea and China.
With government debt approaching nearly 200 per cent of GDP, Japan has sought to reduce the cost of supporting US troops since the "sympathy budget", as it is known in Tokyo, peaked in FY99 at JPY275.6 billion.
US Forces Japan comprises 36,000 personnel from all three branches of the military, 43,000 dependents and 5,000 Department of Defense civilian employees across 85 facilities.
Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2010
Kosuke Takahashi
JDW Correspondent
Tokyo
Japan and the US have agreed that Japan's financial support for the US troops based in the country will stay at current levels for the next five years from Fiscal Year 2011 (FY11) starting in April.
Under the five-year agreement between the two countries, Japan will earmark the existing annual amount of JPY188.1 billion (USD2.3 billion) for five years from FY11, the Japanese Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced on 14 December.
Measures were made to reduce the burden on Japan. The number of local support staff, whose work on US bases includes entertainment facilities such as bars and golf courses and whose personnel costs are covered by the Japanese government, will be cut by 430 to 22,625. The share of Japan's contribution towards US utility bills is also to be reduced from 76 per cent to 72 per cent.
The US had requested more money, claiming that its presence had proven to be a stabilising influence in the region and that the bilateral alliance was increasingly significant in view of recent strategic and military moves by North Korea and China.
With government debt approaching nearly 200 per cent of GDP, Japan has sought to reduce the cost of supporting US troops since the "sympathy budget", as it is known in Tokyo, peaked in FY99 at JPY275.6 billion.
US Forces Japan comprises 36,000 personnel from all three branches of the military, 43,000 dependents and 5,000 Department of Defense civilian employees across 85 facilities.
Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2010
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