(My latest for Asia Times) US, Japan: Not quite 20-20 vision

US, Japan: Not quite 20-20 vision
With United States President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda pledging to boost their security alliance to maintain peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region, the leaders have taken their "shared vision" a step further. However, the picture becomes blurred over the hefty bill Tokyo will have to foot in the relocation of US forces from Japan to Guam. - Kosuke Takahashi (May 1, '12)


Asia Times Online :: US, Japan: Not quite 20-20 vision
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - United States President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda on Monday pledged to boost their security alliance to maintain peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region - a move intended to counter China's military buildup and North Korea's erratic belligerence.

Noda became Japan's first premier to formally meet with Obama in Washington since the Democratic Party of Japan took power in September 2009. Amid Japan's revolving door of prime ministers who tend to resign after very short tenures, Noda is the sixth national leader in as many years - he assumed office in September 2011.

After their 60-minute summit, the two leaders issued a joint statement titled "A Shared Vision for the Future", [1] the first of its kind since June 2006 when then-US president George W Bush and prime minister Junichiro Koizumi issued a joint statement titled "The Japan-US Alliance of the New Century".

"Our joint vision lays out the future we seek in the Asia-Pacific - a region where international rules and norms are upheld, where nations contribute to regional security, where commerce and freedom of navigation is not impeded and where disputes are resolved peacefully," Obama said at a press conference, apparently aiming to keep in check fast-growing China's naval power.

Although the two governments have stressed to develop a shared vision for the future, there appear to be some differences in their positions.

While the US still cares about the so-called asymmetric threats such as terrorism, unconventional guerrilla warfare and cyber-attacks from a long-term strategic standpoint of its global defense posture, Japan is tactically trying to solve individual problems such as the burden of US military bases carried mostly by the people in Okinawa.

On the defense front, the two leaders particularly hailed last week's new agreement [2] to realign American forces in Japan.

The US and Japan on April 26 unveiled a revised agreement to transfer 9,000 US Marine Corps troops from Okinawa prefecture to Guam and other bases in the western Pacific: a move intended to reduce the impact of US bases on the southern Japanese island chain.

The accord, which updates a 2006 agreement on the realignment of US forces in Japan, will relocate about 5,000 marines from Okinawa to Guam - a US territory - and the remaining 2,500 to Darwin of Australia, and 1,500 to Hawaii. About 10,000 troops will remain in Okinawa.

"This reflects our effort to modernize America's defense posture in the Asia-Pacific with forces that are more broadly distributed, more flexible and more sustainable," Obama said at the White House on Monday. "At the same time, it will reduce the impact on local communities, like Okinawa."

Last week's agreement for the first time introduced the new concept of "bilateral dynamic defense cooperation", which includes timely and effective joint training, joint surveillance and reconnaissance activities, as well as joint and shared use of facilities for US forces and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF).

Specifically, the two governments affirmed to consider co-developing training areas in Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, such as Tinian and Pagan islands, for US forces and the JSDF. Both governments plan to identify specific areas of cooperation by the end of this year.

However, the JSDF working routinely with US forces in other parts of the Asia-Pacific region could lead to the use of forces outside Japan, which the nation's pacifist constitution strictly prohibits.

Despite such concerns, there has been no national debate in the Diet (parliament) on dynamic defense cooperation, and no effort by the Noda administration to build a people's consensus.

For Japan, which is in poor financial shape among developed countries - its government debt has reaching 230% of gross domestic product - the ever-increasing burden of the realignment of US forces is becoming a big problem in Tokyo.

The two governments last week said the total cost of relocating marines and their dependents from Okinawa to Guam would be lowered to US$8.6 billion from the original $10.27 billion. However, the cost to Japan has risen from a maximum of $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion, compensating for inflation.

The Japanese share of costs includes building expenses for land, housing, schools and other facilities in Guam as well as the costs of developing the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, such as Tinian Island, where, as a historical irony, two B-29s took off to drop atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945.

If those facilities were to be created inside its own territory, Japanese people would be content to incur such huge costs. But now, as if Tokyo had become an automated teller machine for the US, the facilities are being built outside Japan.

Thanks in part to Japan's money, Guam will have its largest military presence since the Vietnam War in the 1960s and early 1970s when US Air Force B-52s made daily bombing runs from bases on the island.

In addition, the Japanese government has even pledged to pay refurbishment costs for the controversial Marine Corps Air Station Futenma on Okinawa, until a sea-based replacement facility off Camp Schwab is constructed on the north of the island. The local government has demanded the closure of the Futenma site, which is situated in a built-up area, instead of doing maintenance and repairs on it.

"Japan has always shared the financial burden of the US forces innocuously," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online on Tuesday. "In the past decades, then ruling Liberal Democratic Party also did the same thing, so it also cannot complain about this now. It would be much better if we could use such money for our own defense."

Notes
1. See here.
2. See here.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

Asia Times Online :: Damage control, not the end of nukes

My latest story Asia Times Online :: Damage control, not the end of nukes

Damage control, not the end of nukes
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - Although the nuclear deal between North Korea and the United States may help defuse spiraling tensions in East Asia, it represents a harsh new reality: US nuclear diplomacy is unable to "end" North Korea's nuclear weapons program. Rather, it can only halt it.
With American foreign policy swamped with Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere, the Barack Obama administration apparently aims to just "manage and control" the US relationship with North Korea - by keeping it from escalating out of control.
Experts expect North Korea's actions this time may pave the way for a resumption of the six-party talks, but the talks would be more aimed at arms control and disarmament of the Korean peninsula, rather than its denuclearization.

"In recent years, senior US government officials have managed and controlled US relations with North Korea, rather than pursued an engagement policy," Young C Kim, professor emeritus of George Washington University, said at a recent forum in Tokyo. "It is problematic in that it tends to become a policy of tacit approval."

On Wednesday, Washington and Pyongyang announced that North Korea had agreed to implement a moratorium on long-range missile launches, nuclear tests, and nuclear activities at its Yongbyon research center including uranium enrichment activities, in return for US food aid.

But on the same day, key differences on the agreement emerged. The US said Pyongyang has agreed to monitoring of its plutonium program and uranium enrichment activities by the International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA), while the North did not confirm this.

In any case, the US and South Korean intelligence agencies know there are other uranium enrichment facilities besides Yongbyon - North Korea only offered Yongbyon up as a concession while hiding other cards, in a classic salami-slice strategy.

A hungry child knows no politics
The US is to provide 240,000 tonnes of nutritional aid such as corn-soy blend, vegetable oil and therapeutic foods for children under the age of 6, pregnant women and elderly citizens to meet the North's urgent needs.

Interestingly enough, the tonnage of nutritional assistance is almost the same amount then Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi offered in May 2004 in return for the family members of five former abductees by North Korea.

Pyongyang is no doubt desperate for food. A call made in a joint New Year's Day editorial by three major North Korean newspapers on January 1 that were considered Pyongyang's policy guidelines for the new year stressed increased efforts in the country to address food shortages, which it said are a ''burning issue in building a thriving country".

For the US, bilateral negotiations with North Korea on humanitarian assistance such as food aid, as well as on the hunt for the remains of soldiers missing-in-action from the Korean War, have been always possible even amid intensified tensions.

This is because the traditional US food aid policy is based on the slogan of "a hungry child knows no politics," as the late president Ronald Reagan said, although every famine is complicated by politics.
Buying time and putting off the inevitable
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the current consensus view in the Obama administration appears to be that the North Korean problem is best managed through diplomacy. A CSIS study shows that over the past 35 years, Pyongyang has not fired missiles or torpedoed ships when its diplomats are sitting at the table with Americans (with one exception in 1998).

Obama's personal mission to advocate "a world without nuclear weapons" is fading, especially when a nuclear Iran seems ever more imminent. But he needs to keep Pyongyang from conducting a third nuclear bomb test in the lead-up to the US presidential election due this November. The US may want to grasp an understanding for the newly born Kim Jong-eun's rule via bilateral talks and the six-party talks - involving the US, Japan, South and North Korea, China and Russia.

"Please note that the United States has long said that we will never accept North Korea as a nuclear power," Pentagon spokesperson Leslie Hull-Ryde told Asia Times Online.

For Pyongyang, all of the recent movements may be just dilatory efforts. Military experts expect the North would develop intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying downsized nuclear warheads and reaching the US mainland, which would significantly strengthen the North's hand and deepen the security fears of regional rivals such as Japan and South Korea.

There is a widespread view among experts that Pyongyang will not and cannot abandon its nuclear and missile development, despite any compromises by the Obama administration as it eagerly seeks another foreign-policy success in this election year.
For young leader Kim Jong-eun, nuclear-tipped missiles are still the strongest weapon and best deterrent against regime collapse in the Hermit Kingdom. He will hang on to them by all means.

The existing six-party talks could be set aside and a foreign ministerial meeting be held among six nations "to discuss the issue of peace, security and economic cooperation," George Washington University's Kim said. "By way of that foreign ministerial meeting, bilateral talks between North Korea and the US, between South and North Koreas, and between Japan and North Korea, can be held."

Lee Jong Won, professor of International Politics at Rikkyo University, echoed Kim's views.

"Professor Kim's proposal is based on realism," Lee said. "Future six-party talks could be reclassified as 'disarmament' negotiations, rather than aiming at the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. It would be more like Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, which adopted the Helsinki Declaration."

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

(My latest story) Asia Times Online : Mage Island another tinderbox for Japan

Asia Times Online :: Mage Island another tinderbox for Japan

A Japanese-United States plan to use a small island in Kagoshima prefecture for carrier-borne landing practice suggests the allies have learnt little from the US presence on Okinawa. While entrenched local opposition to the militarization of Mage Island is mobilizing in earnest, there are good military reasons - such as the island's vulnerability - to find a better realignment strategy for US forces. - Kosuke Takahashi (Jun 24, '11)

Mage Island another tinderbox for Japan

By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - Across the globe, bureaucrats tend to make up fascinating armchair plans. But without regard to local input, that's just a castle in the air - however ingeniously conceived. Without regard for the environment or consideration of local people, no mere desk plan will do.

A very good example is the long-standing controversial relocation issue of the United States Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) at Futenma in Okinawa prefecture in Japan's south.

But now, foreign and defense policymakers of the US and Japan are about to repeat the same failure, as they have caused another friction with local governments over a small island of western Japan called Mage Island.

Although it's hard to spot in news headlines, the US and Japan on June 21 for the first time named Mage Island - or an uninhabited island in Nishinoomote City of Kagoshima prefecture - as the candidate site for US carrier-borne aircraft landing drills.

The joint statement, issued by four foreign and defense ministers of the US and Japan after the so-called two-plus-two security meeting in Washington, for the first time specifically mentioned the name of Mage Island for the "use by US forces as a permanent field carrier landing practice site".

Yet another Futenma?
"Mage Island could be yet another Futenma," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online. "The government, led by the ruling Democratic Party of Japan, has made no serious efforts to convince local people of the plan. They ignored democratic process."

Mage Island covers about 800 hectares and is located around 12 kilometers west of Tanegashima between Kyushu and Okinawa. It was picked as the permanent site for the so-called Field Carrier Landing Practice (FCLP) of the US Navy's Carrier Air Wing 5 (CVW-5) based at Naval Air Facility Atsugi of Kanagawa prefecture, southwest of Tokyo, or the largest US Naval Air Facility in the Pacific. Most of the island is privately owned by a land developer headquartered in Tokyo. Permission from this company is required to land on the island as a general rule.

Under the 2006 bilateral road map agreement on the realignment of US forces in Japan, CVW-5 squadrons, together with their 59 US carrier-borne jet fighters such as the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, are set to be transferred from the Atsugi naval base to the MCAS Iwakuni in Yamaguchi prefecture.

The two nations plan to replace Iwo Island, under the jurisdiction of Tokyo, where the FCLP by CVW-5 is provisionally conducted, with Mage Island. The 2006 bilateral realignment road map said that a permanent location would be picked by 2009 - a delay that Japanese officials can catch a lot of heat for, as they face strong pressure from the US.

Mage Island is only about 400 kilometers from MCAS Iwakuni, while Iwo Island is around 1,200 kilometers away from the Atsugi naval base, thus making flight drills on Mage Island more convenient for the US Navy.

Local opposition
Just as Okinawans have opposed the relocation of the Futenma base to a new helicopter base scheduled for construction off the shores of the beautiful Henoko bay, local officials and residents in Nishinoomote City are beginning to protest the plan to transfer the drills to Mage Island in earnest.

Chikara Nagano, mayor of Nishinoomote City, has said, "We harbor strong resentment against the government's high-handed tactics ignoring local communities' will, and we will never permit it."

Kagoshima governor Yuichiro Ito also voiced his opposition, by saying "it's needed to protest against the plan, together with local people".

Eleven groups such as civic, tourist and medical associations in Nishinoomote City on June 22 jointly issued a letter of protest, under which they pledged to remain adamantly against the plan.

Under the plan, the Japanese Ministry of Defense plans to build a Self-Defense Forces (SDF) facility on Mage Island and conduct the landing practice as part of its efforts to boost security around the Nansei Islands in Okinawa prefecture, and in the East China Sea near China and Taiwan, a move that is apparently aimed at countering China's growing naval power.

In the meantime, the US also plans to conduct the field carrier landing practice there.

Talk of Mage Island as a candidate site for the envisaged flight drill facility arose in 2007 under the administration of the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner the New Komeito party.

But it disappeared soon due to strong local opposition from the Nishinoomote and nearby municipalities. Then, in December 2009 under the former Yukio Hatoyama administration, the island was even considered as a candidate for the Futenma transfer. But again this idea was scrapped because of strong local protest.

Japanese military analyst Shikata said it is militarily nonsense to build the drill site on an uninhabited island such as Mage Island.

"Small islands are vulnerable to external attacks," Shikata said. "Terrorists can easily attack them. Moreover, the US needs the SDF troops for their own safety, just as the US forces in Okinawa are protected by the SDF troops there. You cannot easily build the drill site for the US in such an uninhabited island without SDF personnel."

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

(My latest story for Asia Times) Ten reasons for Japan's revolving door

Asia Times Online published my latest story about Japanese politics. If you get time, pls go over
Ten reasons for Japan's revolving door As seen above, I made an image of Japan's revolving door. (^^)


As Naoto Kan pledges to step down as Japan's fifth prime minister in five years, many voters wonder if the short tenures suggest a systemic problem with the country's politics, or just a crop of poor leaders. Here are 10 reasons why Japan's door to the top job keeps on revolving - and why his successor will need unwavering guts. - Kosuke Takahashi (Jun 10, '11)

Ten reasons for Japan's revolving door
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - Going by the revolving door of prime ministers who keep resigning after very short tenures, the top job in Japan should be the world's hardest post.

A year since he took office, Naoto Kan has been forced to pledge to step down once the nation has recovered from the worst of a triple whammy: earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown.

Kan will be the fifth prime minister in five years, should he quit by late September. Why does Japan politics play musical chairs with a new prime minister every year? Is there any systemic problem with Japan politics? Or has the nation just had poor leaders?

Many wonder.

Here are 10 reasons for the revolving door.

1. Economic doldrums
Poorer economies weaken already vulnerable governments anytime and anywhere. This was especially true during Japan's post-bubble "lost decades" since early 1990s. The country headed into a downward deflationary spiral, which is far worse than an inflation spiral because there is no way to break the flight from borrowing and spending until it bottoms out and consumers begin to consume again.

With the national economy and budget shrinking, Japanese politicians became more and more inward-looking and began to engage in internal fighting. They always get in each other's way. Japan has had 14 prime ministers in the past 20 years of post-bubble downturn.

2. Very short primary election campaigns with no fierce battles
The Japanese political system is unique in that, unlike the United States, the party that gains a majority of seats in a general election produces the next prime minister under a parliamentary cabinet system. Thus, the majority party's presidential election is quite significant, as the outcome of that race will essentially decide Japan's next leader.

But the election time of the party presidential race tends to be very short. For example, following the former prime minister Yukio Hatoyama's resignation announcement on June 2, 2010, the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) had just a two-day election campaign for presidency before selecting Kan as the next party leader on June 4. This is in contrast to the US presidential campaign, which spans around one year including primary elections.

Without enough election time, voters cannot sort out any good politician from multi-candidates. Candidates also cannot be tempered by trials and tribulations such as money scandals.

3. The twisted Diet
In recent years, many prime ministers such as Yasuo Fukuda resigned because of a political deadlock called "the twisted Diet (parliament)", where the ruling party has a majority of seats in the House of Representatives (lower chamber) while opposition parties maintain a majority of parliamentary seats in the House of Councilors (upper chamber).

This makes it almost impossible for any prime minister to get key bills through. Unlike the US, Japanese political parties' headquarters order their lawmakers on whether to support or vote against bills. Lawmakers who don't follow their party's decision are punished. Cross-party voting is not permitted.

Japanese politicians act in a group, not as individuals. They form political factions and usually don't vote on the basis of personal convictions.

4. No lawmaking in the Diet
The Japanese constitution says the Diet is the only legislative authority and the cabinet is a policy-implementation organization. But in reality, Japanese lawmakers usually do not make laws. Central government bureaucrats make laws.

The misnomer is heightened by the sense that all lawmakers do is criticize the cabinet, which is evident in current attacks on the Kan administration by opposition parties and some ruling Diet members. This has sunk Japanese politics to new depths.

5. Hereditary politicians
Japanese political cycles are full of hereditary politicians. In one account, nearly 20% of lower house members are hereditary politicians, whose family members used to be national lawmakers. This hereditary ratio is especially high in the opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Nearly 40% of LDP members are hereditary politicians.

This well-entrenched hereditary system works negatively, especially at the time of disaster. Preppy Japanese politicians fail to understand the public mindset and have little grasp of the tasks that disaster victims at evacuation centers most expect the government to fulfill.

Public perceptions that their politicians spinelessly relinquish the reins of government when times get tough have provoked anger. Ordinary Japanese cannot abandon their jobs and are forced to tighten their belts.

6. No civic journalism
Japanese media have exacerbated domestic problems by concentrating on what central ministries and agencies announce passively. Rather than going out into the town and pouring into the streets, many reporters heavily plump onto seats and sofas at the in-famous press club, or Kisha club in Japanese.

Central ministries and agencies, as well as local cities, prefectural polices and economic organizations, provide plenty of space for the benefits of those exclusive media clubs, along with facilities such as phone and faxes. This system causes Tokyo-oriented reporting and authority-focused journalism, rather than "man-on-the-street" journalism.

Moreover, control of the national daily newspapers, commercial television and most radio stations is in the hands of several Japanese media conglomerates. With media power so concentrated and strong, politicians who are not liked by reporters find it hard to get the air time needed to raise their popularity among voters.

7. US pressure
Japanese premiers of the post-World War II period with long tenures were those who preserved the golden era of US-Japan relations. Among them were Yasuhiro Nakasone, who was best known for his strong relationship with president Ronald Reagan, popularly called the "Ron-Yasu" friendship, and Junichiro Koizumi, who nurtured a close personal accord with George W Bush.

In sharp contrast, the late prime minister Kakuei Tanaka, who signed the Japan-China joint communique and achieved the normalization of diplomatic relations with China in 1972, was kicked out of office because of the so-called Lockheed bribery scandal. Japanese political analysts believe many allegations of bribery over Lockheed originated from the US administration, because Tanaka put relations with China ahead of the US-Japan alliance.

Most recently, former prime minister Yukio Hatoyama, who tried to move the controversial US Futenma Marine air base from Okinawa prefecture and campaigned for an East Asia community involving China, had a tenure of less than nine months.

8. National treacheries by bureaucrats
The WikiLeaks documents have shown high-ranking officials in Japan's foreign and defense ministries were very critical of the ruling DPJ-led administration, which originally called for a more equal partnership with the US.

A WikiLeaks document revealed the views of Akitaka Saiki, director general of the Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau of the Foreign Ministry at the time:

Saiki theorized that the DPJ, as an inexperienced ruling party, felt the need to project an image of power and confidence by showing it had Japan's powerful bureaucrats under control and was in charge of a new and bold foreign policy that challenged the US. Saiki called this way of thinking "stupid" and said "they will learn".

Moreover, sentiments of the then-Defense Ministry's defense policy bureau director general Nobushige Takamizawa were reported as suggesting, "The US delegation ought not to take [Akihisa] Nagashima's assessment of current realignment plans at face value" and that Takamizawa had "cautioned against premature demonstration of flexibility in adjusting the realignment package to be more palatable to the DPJ Government."

Nagashima was then vice minister of defense. Takamizawa spoke to a US delegation in a lunch meeting when Nagashima was absent.

Japanese voters last August ended the one-party domination of the LDP by giving a massive victory to the DPJ. Should national bureaucrats not follow the orders of politicians, who were chosen by historical national elections, for whom are bureaucrats working for? In Washington, it is said around 3,000 bureaucrats are moved from office once voters eject a government. In Tokyo, bureaucrats stay on-site, where they neutralize nationally elected politicians.


9. The nail that sticks out gets banged down
Japanese society cherishes groupism and tends to beat those who break from traditional social rules. This social norm works negatively on such politicians as Ichiro Ozawa, who boldly try to address national problems through strong-arm tactics and risk-taking to confront and rein in the bloated bureaucracy. More than a few political analysts, along with the mainstream mass media, say that in the arrest of his aides over political donations, Ozawa is the real target.

10. Japanese people quick to catch a trend
Japanese people are prone to follow the trend of the times and to try to make sure "I'm one of the guys". Thus, once a political and economic climate changes, they tend to follow the new fashion by throwing out the old. The popularity of politicians is also usually short-lived.

Political leaders of true merit are difficult to find at any time and anywhere. This is a universal, not Japanese problem. However, as the hard times roll in Japan anyone seeking the top job needs iron-clad political mettle, extra special spiritual strength and unwavering guts.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

(My latest story for Asia Times Online) Futenma: Time on Okinawa's side

Futenma: Time on Okinawa's side
Pressure is rising on Washington over its plans to build a new United States military base on Okinawa, with influential senators proposing that for budgetary reasons the controversial Futenma marine base instead be integrated into an existing facility. While neither plan is favored by Okinawans, the US insists it needs to maintain a forward presence in the region. - Kosuke Takahashi (May 20, '11)

Futenma: Time on Okinawa's side

By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - If you've been listening, Okinawans have for years been sounding an alarm over the presence of huge United States military bases on their island. Finally, key American legislators are coming round to their point of view, with both the US and Japan's ballooning budget deficits raising doubts over the current US base relocation plan.

Time is on Okinawa's side for sure.

Three influential senior US senators last week condemned the planned relocation of US Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma to a new offshore base to be built on the same island as "unrealistic" and instead proposed integrating it into the nearby US Kadena Air Base.

The existing US-Japanese plan was criticized in a May 11 joint statement by Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat and chairman of the Senate Arms Services Committee; Jim Webb, a Virginia Democrat and chairman of the committee's personnel subcommittee; and John McCain, the committee's ranking member and the 2008 Republican presidential candidate. The committee has influential power and authority on legislation and expenditure regarding the US military.

They also called for a delay in the realignment of US military forces in South Korea, pending a further review, and a reduction in the Marine Corps presence on Guam by rotating combat units that are home-based elsewhere.

"The proposals would save billions in taxpayer dollars, keep US military forces in the region, greatly reduce the timing of sensitive political issues surrounding MCAS Futenma and reduce the American footprint on Okinawa," the senators' joint statement said.

Levin said the enormous financial burden imposed on Japan by the disastrous March 11 earthquake and tsunami "also must be considered".

The relocation of the Futenma base has been deadlocked for more than a decade due to strong local opposition. The US had demanded that the transfer of around 8,000 Okinawa-based Marines to Guam would not occur unless the heliport functions of the Futenma base are moved by 2014 to a coastal area off the Marines' Camp Schwab in Nago City, northern Okinawa - as agreed in a 2006 bilateral pact with Japan.

But last September the US Department of Defense (DoD) unilaterally announced it would postpone completion of the transfer originally planned for 2014 due to Guam's poor preparedness on infrastructure, as it cannot accept the sudden influx of 8,000 Marines, their 9,000 dependents and construction workers.

Webb, a former US Marine who's visited Okinawa many times, said on his website that the US "DoD should immediately examine the feasibility of moving the Marine Corps assets at Futenma into Kadena Air Force Base, while dispersing a percentage of air force assets now at Kadena into other areas of the Pacific region."

James Jones, US President Barack Obama's former national security advisor, has also repeatedly said the consolidation of Futenma and Kadena bases would be the best option.

Why now?
What led three veteran US senators to reconsider the existing plan? In a whirlwind of international politics, domestic politics matters most. The Obama administration has to overcome mounting political and economical difficulties for a number of domestic issues in the coming months.

First, it needs to firmly proceed to trim the fat off the spending budget, especially on the military, which accounts for about two-thirds of the discretionary federal budget. The US government projects its financial deficit will exceed $1 trillion for four consecutive years in the fiscal year 2012 starting October as it continues to run at the highest level in history.

As the budgetary assessment for 2012 starts this month, US legislators are seeking any room for budgetary spending cuts.

There has been strong criticism against the current relocation plan, which calls for spending of more than $10 billion in Japanese and US funding, with Japan paying 60% and the US bearing the rest. Many experts expect that planning on Guam's military buildup is constantly shifting and the overall price tag will likely rise, as almost always happens in military spending.

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has warned against the rising financial deficit, saying that "the biggest threat we have to our national security is our debt". This illustrates the seriousness of the US financial situation.

Second, the senators' appeal came shortly before US Defense Secretary Robert Gates is expected to leave the Pentagon by June 30, to be replaced by Central Intelligence Agency director Leon Panetta. By taking advantage of the occasion of a change of defense chief, they appear to be urging a policy shift on US bases in East Asia. The killing of Osama bin Laden and the start of a US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in July also give the US administration a break in the fight against terrorism. This, along with a new defense chief, may bring about a new US global strategy, including on US bases abroad.

Third, in the so-called two-plus-two security meeting between foreign and defense ministers in May 2010, the two nations agreed to decide the specific location and construction method for a Futenma replacement facility before the next two-plus-two meeting, which is scheduled to be held by the end of June this year. The senators urged both nations' officials to look at the reality of the endless political stalemate over the Okinawa base relocation issue.

Okinawans against Futenma consolidation
The initial Okinawan response to the integration plan involving Kadena was not so bad. Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima said the proposal could be considered if it resulted in less fighter aircraft traffic at Kadena, reduced noise and base functions and eased of the burden on local communities.

However, he has gradually cooled on the idea, stressing the problems of noise pollution and the crimes of certain US soldiers.

In late April, more than 22,000 residents around the Kadena base filed a lawsuit demanding a night-time flight ban and a combined 44.6 billion Japanese yen (US$540 million) in compensation from the Japanese government, arguing their health has been affected by aircraft noise. The number of plaintiffs accounts for about one third of Kadena Town and around one in every 70 Okinawans. This put pressure on the governor not to make any compromise with the US. The Kadena base occupies 83% of Kadena Town.

Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa said on Thursday it will be "physically difficult" for Japan to comply with its agreement with the US to complete the planned relocation of the Futenma base by 2014 within Okinawa.

"The 2006 road map calls for the completion of a replacement facility for Futenma by 2014, but 2014 is just in front of our eyes," Kitazawa told the House of Representatives Committee on Security. "The Japanese government and Okinawa have not reached a deal," he said, referring to the strong local opposition.

He pointed out Guam's lack of infrastructure, which could also delay the original relocation plan, and he proposed that the two nations frankly discuss how to proceed with the deadlocked plan at the two-plus-two security meeting scheduled to be held in late June.

The initial Pentagon response was not encouraging for those who hope the senators' intervention may change US policy.

"We appreciate the perspectives of the senators, but the press release does not change our commitment to current plans to maintain a forward presence in the region that is geographically distributed, operationally resilient, and politically sustainable," Pentagon spokesperson Leslie Hull-Ryde told Asia Times Online.

"Current agreements and policies have been carefully developed over many years in close consultation and coordination with our allies and within the US government, including with the military services and with congress," she said. "This release does not change our commitment to our current approach."

Talk of the consolidation of the Futenma and Kadena bases has disappeared every time it has arisen in the past. To make it a politically feasible solution, the US needs to reduce the prospect of noise pollution. More importantly, as the US and Chinese militaries begin to recognize the necessity of working together, perhaps Japan and the US should be reconsidering the entire raison d'etre of massive US bases in Okinawa.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

(My latest story for Asia Times) Record-high yen assaults Japan

Very, very good news. This afternoon I just got a phone call from my relative in Miyagi Prefecture. He and his mother survived. I was pretty much relieved to hear they are safe.

Mitsunori Goto, 48, my relative, who survived the earthquake one week ago, said his car was swept by the tsunami but he managed to escape alive. At that time, he was in Ishinomaki City of Miyagi. He gave me a phone call today. He is a former SDF member.
Also, my late grandma's house located in Tome City of Miyagi did not collapse during the earthquake. My mother and I always go to this house every Obon season around mid-August.

Here is my latest story for Asia Times. I criticized speculative FX trading, which took advantage of nuke fears in Japan.  Cheers, Kosuke

Record-high yen assaults Japan
 By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - Greed and fear move markets, one popular proverb on Wall Street says. Speculative market players, taking advantage of greed and fear, are now assaulting Japan, seeking to gain in the wake of the country's worst recorded earthquake, subsequent big aftershocks, massive tsunami, tremendous loss of life and nuclear panic.

With nuclear fears on the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant rising, speculators are aggressively buying the Japanese yen amid　cat-and-dog surging demand for the currency, pushing up the yen to a record post-World War II high of 76.25 to the US dollar on early Thursday in Tokyo. The yen at this level will likely hit the profitability of Japanese exporters such as Toyota and Sony in coming months, although it can help lower prices of imported crude oil and other raw materials.

Why do speculators buy the yen, instead of selling it, as geopolitical risks of Japan on nuclear radiation are rising and the Japanese economy is expected to slow down in coming months due to massive earthquake damage?

The prevailing notion in the markets is that global money managers and hedge funds, as well as Japanese mom-and-pop investors, are increasingly seeking to reduce investment risk due to the global downturn in stocks, and that those investors are unwinding so-called yen carry trades, which under less volatile financial times allow traders to capitalize on Japan's ultra-low interest rates to buy higher-yielding assets in Australia and elsewhere.

But the real reason is not a simple yen-buying based on risk aversion. They are actually taking big speculative risks to bet on the yen's further rise by buying it. They simply buy the Japanese currency, as they think that people want to buy the yen in times of emergency world-wide.

Yen-buying and losses in the stock markets started to pile up late morning New York time on Wednesday after European Union Energy commissioner Guenther Oettinger warned of "further catastrophic events" in the coming hours in Japan, saying they "could pose a threat to the lives of people on the island".

He said that one of Japan's nuclear plants was "effectively out of control", and that the situation could continue to deteriorate. Europe's energy chief later played down his warning, as his spokeswoman said his comments were based on media reports, his personal fears and so forth after the comments alarmed global financial markets.

Then, losses in the stock markets and yen-buying accelerated after the United States Embassy in Japan urged American citizens living within 80 kilometers of the quake-hit Fukushima nuclear power plant to evacuate as a precautionary measure.

Nuclear pundits around the globe have mentioned Japan’s possible nuclear crisis as being equivalent to the 1986 Chernobyl accident. They seldom mention a basic but important fact. Unlike Chernobyl, Japan managed to automatically shut down all the nuclear power reactors in Fukushima immediately after the earthquake on March 11. This is quite different from Chernobyl.

"The yen is being bought as nuke fears are exaggerated abroad," said Yuji Saito, director of the foreign exchange department in Tokyo at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank. "By taking advantage of those exaggerated fears, speculators aimed to trigger massive stop-loss orders of yen-buying at the level of a previous record-high of 79.75 yen against the dollar. They succeeded in doing so by triggering those stop orders amid very thin trading between New York and Tokyo times."

Saito said now that speculators had finished hitting another record-high of the yen against the dollar, they fear intervention by the Japanese authorities in the currency markets by selling the yen, and have already started to sell the yen by riding on possible future intervention by the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan.

"Crucially, FX [foreign exchange] carry positions have likely been wiped out, without a severe jump in volume, so overall, conditions for risk appetite/releverage actually appear to be reasonable and there will be investors with strong interest in buying cross-JPY," UBS wrote in a report on Thursday. "Of course, if the news flow deteriorates yet again, the market could yet turn, but overall last night's price action seems very FX-specific and stops/barriers driven than any indication of fundamental fear-induced deleveraging."

Expectations are rising that central bank officials and the Group of Seven finance ministers will decide to assist Japan's recovery efforts and also approve, or at least understand, Japan's currency intervention at an emergency meeting by phone on Friday. The Group of Seven is composed of the United States, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Canada.

"Japan will be forced to sell US Treasuries if it really needs the costs of its reconstruction," Saito said. "This would be severely damaging to the US. So I think the world led by the US will help Japan this time."

As of January 2011, Japan holds $885.9 billion of US Treasuries, the second-largest holder, following China's $1.15 trillion.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. He is a regular TV commentator at Nikkei CNBC in Tokyo. He previously was a currency reporter for Bloomberg News in Tokyo under the pen name of Kosuke Goto.

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

Japan hit by largest earthquake in country's history

On Friday afternoon Japan was hit by the biggest earthquake ever.
I was at home on the 17th floor of an apartment building when the earthquake hit. At that time I'd just finished off writing a story for Asia Times Online(ATol), which I posted here, and submitted it to ATol's desk. I was dead tired around that time because I had worked all through the night. The previous night, or Thursday night, I was working on a story for Jane's Defence Weekly. But this earthquake made me completely awake. I felt big waves for a couple of minutes. I thought I would die. My mother, 67, became pale and could not stand up. Flower pots, books, fluorescent lights all came down from shelves and the ceiling.

This earthquake is, for sure, the biggest I have ever experienced. (I went to Kobe in 1995 to cover stories on the Great Hanshin Earthquake, which killed 6,434 people, as staff writer of the Asahi Shimbun, but that was a few weeks after the Great Hanshin Earthquake.  So I did not experience that exact moment of happening.)

I went out to the streets to make sure how people are coping with this situation. Many people just kept walking on the streets after this major earthquake and subsequent dozens of aftershocks. All public transportations such as trains, subways and most buses are still being stopped. Aftershocks make it very dangerous to use them. People just needed to walk to go home on cold Friday night. The photo below was taken in my hometown Kawsaki City, adjoining Tokyo.

Softbank, my mobile phone service, didn't work including SMS/MMS(intermittent emails/text msgs) .
My IPhone 4, my favorite item, became useless. It was not connected until just before mid-night. My home phone was also disconnected until night.



Well. here is my latest story for Asia Times.

Scandals strain US-Japan relations

By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - A new division is developing in the Japan-United States relationship after Kevin Maher, policy chief on Japan affairs at the US State Department, said it would be bad for the US if Japan's war-renouncing peaceful constitution was changed because Japan would not need the American military.

Anti-US sentiments are particularly flaring up again in Okinawa, Japan's southernmost island, after Maher, director of the Office of Japan Affairs at the State Department and former consul general in Okinawa, described Okinawan people as "masters of manipulation and extortion" in their dealings with the long-standing, thorny issue of the relocation of the US Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station on Okinawa.

Maher gave a lecture to American University students in Washington on December 3, 2010. He was sacked from his position by the State Department on March 10, four days after Kyodo News first reported Maher's statement.

"Maher's remarks on the constitution surely cast a shadow on Japan's long-term national security," Ukeru Magosaki, the former chief of the Japanese Foreign Ministry's international intelligence bureau, told Asia Times Online on Friday. "His comments hurt the Okinawa people's feeling severely. This would make it further difficult to put the US base relocation plan into practice."
Japan, meanwhile, has its own problems. It took a stop-gap measure by promoting Takeaki Matsumoto on Wednesday as foreign minister from his deputy position at the ministry to succeed Seiji Maehara, who abruptly resigned on March 6 over a scandal involving a political donation from a South Korean resident of Kyoto.

The scandals from both sides of the US and Japan surfaced at a time when the significance of closer ties between two nations cannot be overemphasized to cope with the rapid rise of the Chinese military, the warmongering from North Korea against South Korea and Russia's movement towards the south by strengthening its military presence on four disputed islands, known as the Southern Kuril islands in Russia and the Northern Territories in Japan.

Tense incidents
Most recently, two Chinese military planes - a Y-8 surveillance aircraft and a Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft - on March 2 flew to about 55 kilometers (34 miles) from the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. This prompted the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) to scramble F-15J fighters.

In addition, a Chinese State Oceanic Administration helicopter on Monday flew to just within 70 meters of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) destroyer Samidare. Military experts said China tested Japan's reflexes amid Tokyo's weakening diplomatic power caused by its domestic political turmoil.

According to the Japanese Defense Ministry's Joint Staff, it was the first time Chinese military planes had approached so close to the Senkaku islands. Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa on Tuesday slammed the Chinese helicopter's buzzing of a Japanese destroyer, saying, "It was an extremely dangerous act."

China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu, meanwhile, said that China's right to claim the islands is "indisputable" and that its actions were in accordance with international law.

The number of scrambles the JASDF conducted against Chinese airplanes reached 48 from April to December of the 2010 fiscal year, which ends on March 31. This is already the highest in the past five fiscal years, and it does not yet include the January to March figures.

Damage-control
The US was forced into damage-control mode by swiftly sacking Maher. US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell, Maher's superior, offered an apology during a meeting with new Japanese Foreign Minister Matsumoto in Tokyo on Thursday. The US ambassador to Japan, John V Roos, also flew to Okinawa and apologized in person to Okinawan governor Hirokazu Nakaima, who is calling for relocating US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma out of Okinawa.

About half of the 50,000 American military personnel in Japan are located on the island of Okinawa. 

"I don't think Article Nine of the Japanese constitution should change," Maher said. "If the Japanese constitution was changed the United States would not be able to use Japanese land to advance US interests. The high host nation support the Japanese government currently pays is beneficial to the US. We've got a very good deal in Japan."

The two nations last December agreed that Tokyo will maintain the annual costs of hosting US bases at the current level of 188.1 billion yen (US$2.3 billion) for a five-year period from fiscal 2011 starting April.

He also said, "Okinawans are too lazy to grow goya." Goya is the bitter cucumber vegetable and a local specialty of Okinawa.

Japan and the US last May agreed that the Futenma base would be moved from a densely populated district in Ginowan to a coastal area in the Henoko district of Nago, but local people are fiercely opposed to the plan and want the base to be moved outside of Okinawa.

Reconciling the local demand to move the base with US strategic interests appears impossible, especially after Maher's controversial remarks.

"I was shocked that a diplomat could say such hurtful things about our allies," Tori Miyagi, a 20-year-old American University student who attended the meeting and who also helped compile the memo, told Asia Times Online. "Our alliance with Japan is the foundation of American foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific, so I was amazed Mr Maher would use such strong language to describe our friends. That type of thinking is not productive to the Japan-US partnership."

Miyagi, a fourth-generation Japanese-American whose family came from Okinawa, also said, "It's unfortunate that Mr Maher has to be removed."

"He did not have to be removed, but the State Department should try to remove that type of thinking," he said. "I think the alliance managers do not realize or do not care about the growing frustration in Japan and they are the ones to blame and they are the ones who are preventing a stronger US-Japan alliance. As Campbell is saying the US and Japan are partners, so it's time the US starts treating Japan like a partner and a friend."

Speaking of the memo, Miyagi said, "We did not have a recorder with us, so the memo is not a transcript, but it is accurate. Other students have now come forward and have confirmed what has been reported."

Kan's days may be numbered
Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan on Wednesday promoted Matsumoto, State Secretary for Foreign Affairs, to succeed Maehara, who stepped down on the news he had accepted donations from a South Korean resident in Kyoto in violation of Japan's campaign-fund laws.

Japanese media increasingly have pointed out Kan's days in office might be numbered, especially after the Asahi Shimbun reported on Friday that Kan also accepted donations of 1.04 million yen (US$12,600 ) from a South Korean resident in Yokohama City in violation of Japan's campaign-fund laws. Opposition parties have demanded that Kan resign.

A major earthquake, which hit Japan on Friday, may benefit Kan's administration as opposition parties are forced to stop political battles amid the government’s emergency measures.

Matsumoto, 51, is a member of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and is close to former DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa, Kan's political rival. Matsumoto supported Ozawa, not Kan, in the party leadership election in September 2010.

Matsumoto served as a secretary of his father Juro Matsumoto, who served as Defense Agency chief from 1989 to 1990. He is a cousin of Japanese ambassador to the US Ichiro Fujisaki. He is known as well-versed in issues ranging from financial affairs to foreign and security policies.

"My policy is to further promote the deepening of the Japan-US alliance," Matsumoto said at an inaugural press conference on Wednesday. "I intend to make efforts toward the deepening of the Japan-US alliance in a way that is appropriate in the 21st century."

One of his immediate tasks is to make preparations for Kan's visit to the US scheduled for the first half of this year.

Matsumoto is due to attend a two-day meeting of foreign ministers from the Group of Eight nations from March 14 in Paris and host two days of trilateral foreign ministerial talks with China and South Korea from March 19 in Kyoto.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also works for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent.


(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

My latest story for Asia Times: Rocky barriers to Russo-Japanese peace

Rocky barriers to Russo-Japanese peace


A long-simmering diplomatic feud between Japan and Russia over four Kurils islands has re-awakened, with Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan calling Russian visits to one an "unforgivable outrage" and the Kremlin instructing the military to build-up its installations there. While the islands are believed to have significant oil and gas deposits, electoral concerns may be behind the latest flare-up. - Kosuke Takahashi (Feb 14, '11)

Rocky barriers to Russo-Japanese peace


By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - Unnecessary provocations by Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev are being blamed for the reawakening of a decades-old island feud between the countries, with both leaders accused of pandering to nationalism ahead of key elections.

Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara landed in Moscow on Friday to meet his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in hopes of defusing tensions over Tokyo's claim to four Russian-occupied islands that are reportedly host to large quantities of gold and rhenium, and whose waters have significant oil and gas deposits.

Japan calls the islands, comprising Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan and the Habomai islets, the Northern Territories. Russia has occupied the islands, which it calls the Southern Kurils, since August 28, 1945, days after Japan accepted the Potsdam Proclamation and surrendered to the Allied Powers in World War II.

The territorial dispute has prevented the two nations from concluding a post-World War II peace treaty. In a 1956 Joint Declaration, both countries ended a state of war and restored ties. They agreed to continue negotiations for a peace treaty and that Russia would hand over Shikotan and the Habomai islets. However, a peace treaty was never signed.

The dispute was reawakened last November when Medvedev visited Kunashiri, the first such trip by a Russian president. Following his visit, Russia sent more senior officials to Kunashiri, including its first deputy premier, regional development minister and defense minister. "There are so many beautiful places in Russia! Here is Kunashir," Medvedev posted on Twitter.

Medvedev insists that his visit to Kunashiri was a purely domestic matter, and Russian experts in Japan say he indeed focused on Russian politics ahead of the state Duma (lower house) elections at the end of this year, to be followed by a presidential election in the spring of 2012.

"This territorial dispute was so sensitive for the Japanese people that Russian presidents had avoided visiting these islands," Ukeru Magosaki, the former chief of the Japanese Foreign Ministry's international intelligence bureau, told Asia Times Online. "Medvedev forsook this traditional practice. With Russians seeking a strong leader, he tried to boost his image among the public ahead of key elections."

"Since Russia is currently enjoying improved relations with North Atlantic Treaty Organization nations in Europe, it may think raising tensions with Japan would not affect its diplomatic relations worldwide," said Magosaki, also a former professor of Public Policy at the National Defense Academy.

Medvedev may have considered two other factors. One is the upcoming 2012 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Vladivostok. Russia may be aiming to boost oil and gas exports to Japan as it hosts the APEC meeting for the first time. Moscow could see a hardline stance on the territorial dispute as boosting its position in economic negotiations.

A second motivating factor for Moscow could be Japan's new defense policy for the next decade, adopted by the government last December. Tokyo plans to reduce Cold War-era equipment and organizations, especially the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) personnel in Hokkaido prefecture, the northernmost part of Japan facing Russia. Under its new policy, Japan plans to boost security around the Nansei Islands in Okinawa prefecture in the country's south, and in the East China Sea near China and Taiwan, a move that is apparently aimed at countering China's growing naval power.

Medvedev on Wednesday instructed the ministry to build up strength on the disputed Kuril Islands, saying they are part of "a strategic region" and “an inseparable part of [the] Russian Federation". Russia's Interfax news agency on Thursday reported plans to set up a military airport and deploy helicopters on Etorofu, the largest island among the four, quoting a Russian Defense Ministry source.

'Unforgivable outrage'
Russia had in the past made conciliatory gestures to the Japanese government over the islands, suggesting the return of two of the four. But Tokyo has stuck to its traditional demand for the return of all four.

Confounding the situation was a speech Kan made in response to Medvedev's visit, calling it an "unforgivable outrage". Russian officials appear to have taken Kan's remark as a personal attack against Medvedev. On the same day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticized Kan of being "undiplomatic".

On Friday, Lavrov said that the Kremlin wanted Chinese, South Korean and even Japanese investment in the islands, drawing a sharp response from Maehara.

Maehara said investments from "a third country" would "complicate the situation." He said that the islands were "indigenous territories of Japan," and dismissed Russia's call for historians to resolve the dispute.

A few days earlier, Lavrov had demanded that Japanese authorities investigate what he called an insult to the Russian flag by a Japanese rightist group in front of the Russian Embassy in Tokyo.

"People who are engaged in diplomacy should try to improve foreign relations," Magosaki said. "What Prime Minister Kan did was just the opposite."

However, the second day of Maehara's visit saw tensions ease, with the foreign minister saying said he agreed with Sergei Naryshkin, chief of staff of the Russian Presidential Executive Office, that their countries need to boost mutual confidence and bolster bilateral ties.

Maehara told reporters after meeting with Naryshkin that they reaffirmed the two countries' intention to work towards signing a post-World War II peace treaty.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also works for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent.

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

My latest story for Asia Times Online (Gates changes stripes on Okinawa)

Gates changes stripes on Okinawa

In sharp contrast to just over a year ago, United States Defense Secretary Robert Gates has struck a conciliatory tone over the future of the US Marine base on Okinawa, bowing to the interests of the islanders. With an increasingly hawkish military in China gaining the upper hand, the about-turn could signal the US doesn't want to crack an important alliance over a single issue.
- Kosuke Takahashi (Jan 14, '11)

I attended a joint press conference of  US Defense Secretary Robert and Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa yesterday and Gates' lecture at Keio University today.

I'd like ATol readers to read the last two paragraphs of my latest story.

Maybe China and the rest of the world can draw a judicious lesson from pre-World War II Japan. Then Japanese leaders were very confident in the early 1930s, as the nation pulled out of the Great Depression faster than other developed nations. This confidence gave the hawkish military leaders some room to take a hard line against other nations. They tended to refuse to make a concerted move with the international community. Then, the country gradually lost any leader who could exert control over the military.


After the fall of Lehman Brothers, the Chinese economy recovered much earlier than other nations, giving confidence to Chinese leaders including the military. The world might want to promote awareness about prevention of China's aggressive and unilateral actions, especially on maritime security.

Thanks and regards,
Kosuke


Gates changes stripes on Okinawa
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - In sharp contrast to his previous high-handed approach to the thorny issue of the relocation of a United States military base on Okinawa, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates made conciliatory gestures to the Japanese government and Okinawans.

Gates said on Thursday during his visit to Japan that the US administration would defer to Tokyo in solving the long-standing dispute of moving the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma out of a densely populated area in Okinawa prefecture and consider the perceptions of the local public, who want the American forces out.

"We do understand that it is politically a complex matter in Japan," Gates said in a joint press conference with Toshimi Kitazawa, his Japanese counterpart . "And we intend to follow the lead of the Japanese government in working with the people of Okinawa to take their interests and their concerns into account, and that obviously needs to happen."

What a difference a year makes. During his last visit to Tokyo in October 2009, one month after Yukio Hatoyama's center-left Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) took the reins of government, Gates had demanded that the transfer of around 8,000 Okinawa-based Marines to the US Pacific territory of Guam would not occur unless the heliport functions of the Futenma facility were moved by 2014 to a coastal area of the marines' Camp Schwab in Nago City, northern Okinawa - as agreed in a 2006 bilateral pact for the realignment of US forces in Japan. At the time, the Japanese media denounced him as intimidating.

Hatoyama reneged on an election promise to enter negotiations with the US to move the American bases off Okinawa, and was forced to quit in June 2010.

"While issues associated with Okinawa and Futenma have tended to dominate the headlines this past year, the US-Japan defense alliance is broader, deeper and indeed richer than any single issue," Gates said on Thursday.

Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata echoed Gates' statement. "Yes, Futenma is just a one-of-them issue in the Japan-US alliance," Shikata, a professor of International Affairs at Teikyo University, told Asia Times Online. "The US knows Japan's DPJ-led administration won't be able to solve the Futenma issue any time soon, so the US does not want to make this single issue crack the bilateral alliance as a whole."

"With the Futenma base never moved out, Okinawa people will suffer most," Shikata added. "For them, it's a danger of continuing the status quo."

Training of F-15 fighters at Kadena
Still, to make the US presence less visible on Okinawa and to ease the burden on Okinawa to some extent, the two nations this time "agreed to step up the efforts to finalize" the relocation of part of aviation drills of F-15 fighters at the US Kadena Air Base in Okinawa to Guam, Kitazawa said. Despite the two defense chiefs' measured comments, Japanese media reported the two nations had already largely agreed on this issue.

Kitazawa also said the Japanese government would decide by the end of this year whether to allow sales of the US/Japanese-developed Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Block IIA anti-ballistic missile system to other nations.

"With regard to third-party sales, I also stated that it's necessary to consider the introduction of mechanisms for consultations regarding the necessity for prior consent," Japan's defense chief said.

Mindful of the constitutional commitment to peace which has long enjoyed widespread public support in Japan, previous governments have limited arms exports in accordance with the so-called "Three Principles", which prohibit arms deals with the communist bloc, countries subject to United Nations sanctions and those involved in international conflicts.

But Kitazawa said, "As you're aware, the previous administration with regard to transition to production and deployment, that will be treated as an exception to the three principles on arms exports. The question is how to transfer that - the system - to third parties."

Gates, meanwhile, underscored the benefit of providing the joint US-Japan sea-based missile shield system to other countries, by saying, "I think it's fair to say that the minister acknowledged the economic benefit of being able to make it available."

The defense chiefs' meeting was held amid high tensions, triggered by North Korea's continued menace and China's bold move to test-fly its new Stealth fighter during Gates' visit to Beijing. He headed for Seoul on Friday.

"If there is a common theme in my visits, it is the common interest of the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea and China for there to be stability and peace on the Korean Peninsula," he said. "This requires that the North cease its belligerent behavior and its provocations that have killed innocent victims, both military and civilian, in Korea."

Who controls the Chinese military?
Gates also stressed his visit to Beijing as successful by saying he had "constructive talks" with Chinese leaders, while maintaining a sense of vigilance against China's growing naval power.

"I believe there is the opportunity for further cooperation between the Chinese and US militaries going forward in the context of a much larger positive relationship between the United States and China," he said.

"At the same time, I explained that the United States will sustain its military presence in Northeast Asia and look to enhance it in Southeast Asia and will firmly defend the principle of freedom of navigation."

Gates saw China's recent test flight of a Stealth fighter illustrated a "disconnect" between its military and civilian leaders. He called the lack of communication between them "a worry", but he was cautions enough to add that China maintained civilian control of the military.

"I believe we've seen instances where specific events took place where the Chinese civilian leadership might not have known about them in advance," Gates said at Keio University in Tokyo on Friday before heading for Seoul.

"In the larger sense of who controls the Chinese military and who has the ultimate authority, there is no doubt in my mind that it is President Hu Jintao and the civilian leadership of that government," he said.

But most of Japanese security analysts such as Shikata, as well as Tokyo's experts on China, believe Hu is already losing his grip of the People's Liberation Army, especially when he begins to become a lame duck leader. In 2012, Hu is widely expected to hand over control of the country to Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping.

"Xi is famous as a defense bureaucrat," Shikata said. "To kick out political foes, he has used the military support. He is an advocate for the military. Behind the curtain is a former president, Jiang Zemin, who backs up Xi."

Maybe China and the rest of the world can draw a judicious lesson from pre-World War II Japan. Then Japanese leaders were very confident in the early 1930s, as the nation pulled out of the Great Depression faster than other developed nations. This confidence gave the hawkish military leaders some room to take a hard line against other nations. They tended to refuse to make a concerted move with the international community. Then, the country gradually lost any leader who could exert control over the military.


After the fall of Lehman Brothers, the Chinese economy recovered much earlier than other nations, giving confidence to Chinese leaders including the military. The world might want to promote awareness about prevention of China's aggressive and unilateral actions, especially on maritime security.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist.

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

My latest story for Asia Times Online (Testing times for Japan-South Korea ties)

Here is my latest story for Asia Times Online. I am sure that 2011 will mark a new stage in Japan-South Korea relations. Cheers, Kosuke

Testing times for Japan-South Korea ties


By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - Spooked by the continued menace of North Korea and the territorial belligerence of China, Japan and South Korea are planning to sign pacts on supply exchanges and security intelligence - their first-ever military agreements.

Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa, who landed in Seoul on Monday, has agreed with his new counterpart Kim Kwan-jin to start talks on two separate agreements. While one will facilitate exchanges of military goods and services, the other will boost shared intelligence on North Korea's nuclear weapons, missiles and weapons of mass destruction.

Kitazawa's trip to South Korea is the first in six years for a Japanese defense minister. The visit reflects a warming of relations between the two nations, as shown by each other's participation in joint military exercises with the United States last year, with Japan taking part as an observer.

Kitazawa's proposal to Seoul is in line with Japan's long-term strategy. Japan’s defense policy for the next decade, approved by the cabinet of Prime Minister Naoto Kan last month, calls for closer cooperation on defense with countries such as South Korea, Australia, Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries and India. The plan is to forge multi-layered security cooperation with the international community, a move apparently aimed at countering China's growing power and the North Korean threat.

The Japanese defense minister has proposed two separate agreements. The first is the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA), which other countries refer to as the Military Logistics Supporting Agreement (MLSA). For constitutional reasons, Japan avoids using the word "military".

This agreement concerns exchanges of military goods and services such as food, water, fuel and transportation during international peacetime cooperative operations such as peacekeeping and disaster rescue efforts.

South Korea has MLSA agreements with eight nations, such as the US, Turkey, Thailand and the Philippines. Reportedly, it plans to expand the number to 15 by 2012. Japan concluded ACSAs with the US in 1996 and Australia in 2010.

The second agreement on the table is the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), which facilitates shared intelligence on North Korea's nuclear weapons, missiles and weapons of mass destruction.

Japan currently operates three spy satellites that monitor North Korea's military facilities. If the accord is reached, Seoul may benefit from these. Once a fourth satellite goes into orbit in the coming year, Japan will be able to monitor the entire Korean Peninsula at least once every 24 hours.

If signed, the pacts could open a new chapter in Japan’s relations with its former colony - Tokyo ruled the Korean peninsula from 1910 to 1945.

Media in each country has taken note of the improving relations. South Korea’s Maeil Business Newspaper reported earlier this year that Japan's foreign minister, Seiji Maehara, has proposed that the two nations forge a "security alliance".

The Korea Times has reported that South Korea plans to sign at least one of the military agreements by the end of this year, citing an anonymous senior official at the Ministry of National Defense. Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper also reported the two countries were preparing a new Japan-Republic of Korea Joint Declaration, with the aim of signing it when President Lee Myung-bak visits Japan as a state guest in the first half of this year.

The two nations signed a similar declaration in 1998 expressing their shared determination to build a new partnership. But it omitted any mention of possible future military cooperation, an issue that was taboo topics in both countries at the time.

The US behind the curtain
As is often the case with regional affairs in North East Asia, behind the curtain of the recent developments between Japan and South Korea is the United States.

In December, Navy Admiral Mike Mullen, the US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stressed the significance of trilateral cooperation between the US, Japan and South Korea at a press conference in Tokyo, saying he sees a "real sense of urgency" in light of rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Mullen was visiting Japan for the first time since North Korea's shelling of a South Korean island on November 23, which killed two troops and two civilians.

He also noted the importance of the three countries taking part in joint military drills."I would like to see all of us do as much as we can regionally and certainly exercising together is a big part of that." He also appealed for a more active role from Tokyo at a crucial time when "steps must be taken to ensure" that war-mongering from North Korea is stopped.

"Although there are separate security alliances between the US and Japan, and the US and South Korea, there is no alliance between Japan and South Korea," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online. "In a sense, Japan and South Korea indirectly cooperate with each other via the US currently. If the two nations directly work together, this would reduce the US burden. That's pretty good news for the US."

While the two governments, especially their defense officials, are willing to strengthen military ties, ethnic nationalist sentiment on the South Korean side is a key factor.

Among older Koreans, the memories of Japan's colonization are still raw, and territorial disputes over a group of islands - called Tokdo by Koreans and Takeshima by Japanese - are still simmering.

Seoul has been concerned over a resurgence of Japanese military power since the end of World War II, and now is no different. South Korean newspaper JoongAng Ilbo said in its January 5 editorial, "Many people also worry that Japan is seeking to use the tension on the peninsula stemming from the North's sinking of the Cheonan warship and its bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island as an opportunity to bolster its military power in the region."

Japan has taken note of the nationalism issue, with Foreign Minister Maehara saying on January 4 said Tokyo will need to be “sensitive” when improving security ties with South Korea.

China in a corner?
South Korea is also mindful that military cooperation with Japan could impact negatively on bilateral relations with China, Seoul's largest trading partner. Closer military ties between Tokyo and Seoul could force an already unhappy China into a corner, with Beijing further strengthening ties with North Korea as a result. China last year repeatedly voiced concern over a US-South Korea military drill, and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces took part in July for the first time as an observer.

South Korean newspaper JoongAng Ilbo's editorial said more solid Japan-South Korea military ties could "stimulate China to pursue a foreign policy that leads to a Cold War-like atmosphere of confrontation in Northeast Asia".

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist.

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

My latest story for Asia Times Online (Japan gets tough with new defense policy)

Japan gets tough with new defense policy

Japan has announced plans to adopt a new, more aggressive defense posture over the next 10 years. The policy shift comes amid rising regional tensions, triggered by Sino-Japanese territorial disputes, the sinking of a South Korean warship in March and North Korea's bombardment of a South Korean island last month. - Kosuke Takahashi (Dec 20, '10)

Japan gets tough with new defense policy
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - Faced with increasingly territorial belligerence from China and warmongering from North Korea, Japan has decided to adopt a new defense policy that aims to bolster more proactive, flexible and quick responses in the sea, land and air during the next decade - a big departure from a previous passive and pacifist defense posture.

The Japanese government on December 17 announced the new defense policy, officially called the National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG), that will define the country's basic security policy for the next 10 years. The guidelines have drawn close attention from the international community, as they are the first defense policy that the center-left Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has formulated since ousting the pro-US Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) last year.

This posture has also captured public attention because it was mapped out amid rising regional tensions, triggered by territorial disputes between China and Japan, the sinking of a South Korean warship in March and North Korea's bombardment of a South Korean island in November.

The new policy includes a proactive concept called the "Dynamic Defense Force" that aims to "increase the credibility of Japan's deterrent capability by promoting timely and active operations." This supersedes the previous, passive "Basic Defense Force Concept", built around the idea of "static deterrence". The guidelines see military modernization by China and its insufficient transparency as a "concern for the regional and global community." They also point to North Korea's nuclear and missile development programs as "immediate and grave destabilizing factors for regional security."

"For Japan, North Korea is an immediate threat," said Hideshi Takesada, professor and executive director at the National Institute for Defense Studies in Tokyo. "Meanwhile, China is Japan's medium to long-term concern, as it is boosting its submarine forces and anti-satellite weapons programs. China also has outer-space capacity to attack a US carrier by using a GPS (Global Positioning System)."

Departure from the Cold War-era posture
The new defense policy calls for a reorganization of Japanese troops. While reducing Cold War-era equipment and organizations, especially Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) personnel in Hokkaido prefecture, the northernmost part of Japan facing Russia, it stresses the necessity to boost security around the Nansei Islands in Okinawa prefecture in the country's south, and in the East China Sea near China and Taiwan, a move that is apparently aimed at countering China's growing naval power. The JGSDF will also deploy coastal monitoring troops in some of the Nansei Islands, the nation's remotest area.

The quota for JGSDF personnel was reduced to 154,000 in 10 years from the current 155,000, the new NDPG showed.

As part of Japan's efforts to step up vigilance in the sea around Japan, The Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD) decided to increase the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) submarine fleet to 22 from the current 16 by extending the working life of existing submarines. It will also increase the number of its Aegis-equipped destroyers, which carry the US/Japanese-developed Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) anti-ballistic-missile system, to six from the current four. Specifically, a ministry official said it would upgrade JDS Atago (DDG-177) and JS Ashigara (DDG-178).

As for air defense, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) Naha Base in Okinawa will add one more JASDF Tactical Fighter Squadron for a total of two. The JASDF will also boost its deployment of Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptor missiles to six air-defense groups across Japan from the current three, to counter the threat of North Korean and Chinese ballistic missiles, and enhance the performance of Aegis destroyers.

The national defense budget for the next five years will be around 23.49 trillion yen (US$279 billion), down by 750 billion yen from fiscal 2005-2009 due to Japan’s increasing budget deficit.

The new NDPG also calls for Japan to strengthen its defense cooperation with those countries with which it shares democratic values, like South Korea, Australia and India, in addition to its key ally, the United States, with whom it will also work to counter cyber attacks.

The defense guidelines said Japan "will study measures to follow the international trend of defense equipment," but did not clearly mention a review of Japan's longstanding arms-export ban due to protests by opposition lawmakers, whose support the government and ruling bloc cannot afford to lose as it seeks to pass key bills for fiscal 2011. But the door is still open for a possible future lifting of the export ban, a politically sensitive issue given Tokyo's pacifist constitution.

The guidelines also detailed a plan to create a Japanese version of the US National Security Council, aimed at dealing more effectively with diplomatic and security policies, without any sectionalism among related ministries.

China's response
Beijing has accused Tokyo of making irresponsible remarks in its new defense guidelines targeting China.

"The fact is that China's development since the reform and opening up has brought great opportunities for common prosperity to other countries in the world, including Japan," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said on December 17. "This is widely recognized and the international community will have a fair opinion on this. A certain individual country has no right to represent the international community and make irresponsible remarks on China's development."

Singaporean Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said that Japanese naval power was stronger than China’s, but he saw the tide reversed in 10 years.
"Normally you [Japan] have better ships than they have. But they will build an aircraft carrier. So in 10 years they will have a bigger fleet than you, so you have to factor that into your calculations. These are the realities of power," he told the Strait Times in late September.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based correspondent.

(Copyright 2010 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)