North Korea may not proceed with nuke test in immediate future: Pollack

North Korea may not proceed with nuke test in immediate future: Pollack "They will test it at some point, but not now yet," Jonathan Pollack said. -Korea Herald/ANN Song Sang-ho Mon, Apr 30, 2012 The Korea Herald/Asia News Network North Korea is unlikely to conduct a third nuclear test in the immediate future given that it could infuriate China and make the political tide unfavorable for it ahead of the December presidential vote in the South, a renowned US scholar said. "They will test it at some point, but not now yet," Jonathan Pollack of the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank, told The Korea Herald. "The reason might not be technical, but political that another nuclear test would probably be damaging to North Korea from the point of view of seeing a future South Korean president more aligned with their interests." Pollack was in Seoul last week to attend the 2012 Asan Plenum, a three-day international forum on global challenges that kicked off last Wednesday. The annual forum was organized by local think tank Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Pyongyang may face a tougher response from its crucial patron China should it take another destabilizing action following the recent rocket launch, he pointed out. In an unusual move, Beijing agreed at the UN Security Council to condemn Pyongyang on April 16, three days after the botched launch. "They may also be weighing the implications. This time, China would really impose some severe costs on them. We have the Chinese vice foreign minister in the forum, giving some very forceful remarks," he said. "He did not say a nuclear test, but you could see what he was talking about to make clear that China's disapproval of any such third test would be very strong, potentially very harsh." Pollack paid particular attention to the fact that Pyongyang has not been explicit yet about its preparation for a nuclear test while it gave some explanation before their past nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009. "There has been no explicit threat to test the nuclear weapon. The other thing I want to emphasize that in both 2006 and 2009, they developed almost what we would call an immediate campaign over a period of time," he said. "I don't know, it was perhaps, weeks or months, but it was trying to build the case for why they would then proceed to a nuclear test." Although it would not be easy for Beijing to change its core policy toward its impoverished ally considering that it favors stability on the peninsula, China could make some adjustments in it to protect its national interests, he argued. "The Chinese are not, in my own view, likely to discard North Korea, but under some circumstances, it is possible that they might really try to put limits on the relationship if North Korea is affecting their Chinese vital interests," he said. "China's larger worries concern North Korea undertaking actions to which the ROK (Republic of Korea) would respond this time, and then, this triggers an environment that draws in both the US and China on the peninsula." Regarding concerns here that the US could show some reluctance to intervene militarily should a war break out here as it did in Syria, he said the situation would be different. Given deepening public fatigue in the US after a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, and its recent show of reluctance to engage in a Syrian conflict, some here showed apprehension over how the US would move in case of a war here. "It would be much more that the US has made explicit, time and time again, has invested enormous amount of treasure, financial treasure, human commitments of the ROK. That is not something we would walk away from," he said. "It does have a symbolic meaning (to other US allies) as well without a doubt."

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(My latest for Asia Times Online): US plays a bit part in Pyongyang's parade

US plays a bit part in Pyongyang's parade
Inclusion of a US maker's diesel engine and a German manufacturer's automatic transmission system in a missile launch vehicle seen in a military parade raises questions over the efficacy of international efforts to contain North Korea's nuclear weapons threat. The parts won't spare blushes in the American administration for admonishing China's technological role in Pyongyang.
- Kosuke Takahashi (Apr 23, '12)



US plays a bit part in Pyongyang's paradeBy Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - Are the United States and Germany birds of a feather flocking together with China?

A US maker's diesel engine and a German manufacturer's automatic transmission system may have been used for a missile launch vehicle seen in a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, raising questions over the efficacy of the international effort to contain and reverse Pyongyang's nuclear weapons threat, Asia Times Online has learned.

Although the US has raised allegations that China has supplied North Korea with technology for its missile program, the US itself would be under fire over having provided some help for North Korea's mobile missile technology, whether indirectly or not.

Military experts around the world have pointed out the 16-wheeler transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) vehicle that transported North Korea's new missile in Pyongyang on April 15 appeared to very similar to the WS-51200, manufactured by the 9th Academy of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), also known as the Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Co Ltd. [1] This maker of special-purpose vehicles produces the WS series of TELs that are used to deploy the DF-11, DF-16 and DF-21 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles made by the CASIC, the large state-owned hi-tech enterprise under direct control of China's central government.




"For the US, this is as if a ladder were taken off suddenly," Narushige Michishita, an associate professor of security and international studies at National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, told Asia Times Online. "Amid international frustration against China's stance against North Korea, the US seems to have aimed to take this opportunity to press hard on Beijing further. But it may now become difficult."

According to the Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Co's website, the US diesel engine manufacturer Cummins Inc, listed on the New York Stock Exchange, provided its KTTA19-C700 diesel engine for the WS-51200. Meanwhile, German's ZF Friedrichshafen, one of the world's leading automotive industry suppliers specializing in driveline and chassis technologies, supplied its automatic transmission called WSK440+16S251 for the WS-51200.

Breach of UNSC resolutions?
Providing a TEL to Pyongyang would put the nation responsible in breach of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1874, which was adopted in June 2009 and prohibits supplying North Korea with "any arms or related materiel, or providing financial transactions, technical training, services or assistance related to such arms".

The TEL would also have been banned under UNSC Resolution 1718, which was adopted in October 2006 in the aftermath of the North's first nuclear test in the same month. Those sanctions prohibit the import of any "vehicles designed or modified for the transport, handling, control, activation and launching" of "complete rocket systems (including ballistic missile systems, space launch vehicles and sounding rockets)".

Apparently uninformed about a US diesel engine maker's indirect involvement in Chinese-made special-purpose vehicle WS-51200, US State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland on April 20 told reporters that the US raised the issue during ongoing talks with the Chinese government on North Korea.

United States Defense Secretary Leon Panetta also said in US Congressional testimony on April 19 that he was "sure there has been some help coming from China. I don't know the exact extent of that ... but clearly there has been assistance along those lines".

Panetta also said the US was concerned about "the mobile capabilities that were on display in the parade recently in North Korea. The bottom line is that if they have a mobile capability to have ICBMs [inter-continental ballistic missiles] deployed in that manner then that increases the threat from North Korea".

The Chinese government has denied its involvement and sanctions-busting. Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin told a regular news briefing on April 19 that China was against the spread of weapons of mass destruction and carriers for such weapons.

A Chinese company is suspected of providing components for a mobile missile platform showcased in a recent parade in North Korea, Reuters reported on Saturday quoting a US official. "The [Barack] Obama administration suspects the Chinese manufacturer sold the chassis - not the entire vehicle - and may have believed it was for civilian purposes, which means it would not be an intentional violation of UN sanctions," the news agency said.

The US State Department said it believed Chinese assurances that it was adhering to UN sanctions. ''I think we take them at their word,'' spokesman Mark Toner told reporters on April 19.

Mystery of WS-51200
The WS-51200 resembles the vehicle that carried the North Korea's new missile, which was unveiled on 15 April at a parade in Pyongyang marking the centenary of founder Kim Il-sung's birth.

It has a gross vehicle mass of 122 tons and it can carry a load of 80 tons. It measures 20.11 meters long, 3.35 meters wide, 3.35 meters high. The diameter of the tire is 1.6 meter. The length of that new missile on the vehicle is about 18 meter, bigger than North Korea's mobile intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) Musudan but smaller than its long-range missile Taepodong-2, which showed an unabashed failure of the rocket launch on April 13.

Military experts around the world are now figuring out if this is a new type of IRBM or a new intercontinental ballistic missile(ICBM) or just a mock for a military parade, not real one.

The CASIC announced in October 2010 that it had closed a contract to export WS-51200 with a certain nation, presumably North Korea, and that the amount of contact with that nation was 30 million yuan (US$4.75 million) including an advance payment of 12 million yuan. [2]

Then, in May 2011 the CASIC also announced its subsidiary company successfully finished developing WS-51200. [3]

The Mainichi Shimbun, a Japanese daily newspaper, on April 16 reported from Beijing that by citing intelligence community, Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle CO loaded four WS-51200 vehicles onto a ship with Cambodian nationality around August 2011. This ship headed for North Korea's Namp'o port, the newspaper said.

Notes
1. See here.
2. See here.
3. See here.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

(NHK) US raises China's alleged aid for N.Korea missile

US raises China's alleged aid for N.Korea missile

The United States has raised allegations that China supplied North Korea with technology for its missile program.

State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland told reporters on Friday that the US raised the issue during ongoing talks with the Chinese government on North Korea.

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has said China likely provided some help for North Korea's mobile missile technology.

His remark followed North Korea's first public display of what appears to be an intercontinental ballistic missile at a military parade in Pyongyang last Sunday.

The vehicle that carried the missile, which is also used as a launch pad, resembles a Chinese-made special-purpose vehicle.

The Chinese government has denied its involvement.

But defense experts say it is highly unlikely that weapons technology is taken out of China without the consent of its top military officials. They say China may have violated UN Security Council sanctions banning the supply of weapons-related materials to North Korea.

The US is expected to take up the issue with Chinese leaders in the upcoming Strategic and Economic Dialogue, scheduled to begin on May 3rd in Beijing.
Saturday, April 21, 2012 10:25 +0900 (JST)

(NHK) Panetta: China offered N.Korea missile technology

Panetta: China offered N.Korea missile technology

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says China may have provided North Korea with mobile missile technology.

Panetta made the remark on Thursday during testimony before the House Armed Services Committee.

North Korea put a long-range ballistic missile on public display for the first time at a military parade in Pyongyang last Sunday. Western experts say the vehicle that carried the missile -- which is also used as a launch pad -- is the same as a special-purpose vehicle developed by a Chinese company.

Panetta said China has provided some help with North Korea's technology, though he doesn't know the exact extent. He said the matter should be discussed in a closed session due to its high sensitivity.

Panetta said the potential threat from North Korea would be increased if the country has a mobile capability for long-range ballistic missiles. He also revealed a plan to conduct a detailed study.

An online version of the British military magazine Jane's Defense Weekly says if the transporter-launcher vehicle was Chinese-made, it raises the possibility that China may have violated UN sanctions. Supplying North Korea with weapons and vehicles that would help improve the country's missile technology is banned under the sanctions.

The weekly reported that a UN committee of experts has begun an investigation.
Friday, April 20, 2012 08:14 +0900 (JST)

(JDW) Images suggest North Korea using Chinese TEL for new missile

ASIA PACIFIC

Date Posted: 16-Apr-2012

Jane's Defence Weekly

---

Images suggest North Korea using Chinese TEL for new missile

Ted Parsons JDW Correspondent
Washington, DC

Additional reporting by
James Hardy Asia-Pacific Editor
London

Key Points Images taken in Pyongyang on 15 April suggest that North Korea's new missile is transported by a transporter-erector-launcher of Chinese design If this is confirmed, the TEL would be in breach of UN sanctions designed to prevent weapons proliferation by North Korea

 Images suggest that China has either sold the design or manufactured the transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) vehicle for the three-stage missile that North Korea unveiled on 15 April at a parade in Pyongyang marking the centenary of founder Kim Il-sung's birth.

The presence of the TEL in Pyongyang questions the efficacy of the international effort to contain and reverse Pyongyang's nuclear weapons threat.

North Korea revealed its new ballistic missile two days after its Unha-3 satellite launch vehicle was destroyed shortly after launching from the Sohae Launch Station in the country's northwest. The new missile's size and design suggests it could have a range of 5,000-6,000 km.

The 16-wheel TEL is apparently based on a design from the 9th Academy of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), also known as the WoSang truck factory, which produces the WS series of TELs that are used to deploy CASIC's DF-11, DF-16 and DF-21 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. Images of the WS2600 from a CASIC brochure indicate that the two TELs have the same windscreen design; the same four windscreen wiper configuration; the same door and handle design; a very similar grille area; almost the same front bumper lighting configuration; and the same design for the cabin steps. CASIC's involvement in North Korea's missile programme would require approval from the highest levels of the Chinese government and the People's Liberation Army. As the TEL design would require intimate knowledge of the new missile, there is also the possibility that Chinese entities have been involved in additional design and manufacturing aspects of it too. The possibility that China is involved in North Korea's development of a new long-range missile might undermine international efforts to counter Pyongyang's nuclear and missile development: it also challenges Beijing's repeated assertions that China opposes North Korea's development of nuclear missiles, and that the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party is exercising responsible leadership to arrest the development of North Korea's nuclear weapons programme. COMMENT The possibility that China is supporting North Korea's strategic weapons programme complicates international efforts to negotiate with North Korea and could fatally undermine the six-party talks, which are hosted by China and are built on the premise that there is a unanimous desire to prevent the North from developing a nuclear capability. Finally, China's involvement in providing this erector-launcher to North Korea would put it in breach of UN Security Council Resolution 1874, which prohibits supplying North Korea with 'any arms or related materiel, or providing financial transactions, technical training, services, or assistance related to such arms'. Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2012

Regarding DPRK's new missile, there is a growing possibility of China’s involvement in providing this erector-launcher to North Korea, breaching UN Security Council resolution 1874

Regarding DPRK's new missile, there is a growing possibility of China’s involvement in providing this transporter-erector-launcher(TEL) to North Korea, breaching UN Security Council resolution 1874. 

The transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) vehicle that was carrying the new missile spotted over the weekend is Chinese by design and possibly origin. As below… “If confirmed, China’s involvement in providing this erector-launcher to North Korea would put it in breach of UN Security Council resolution 1874…”  Please note we say “if confirmed”.    

1) Two experts available to answer questions:

·         James Hardy, Asia Pacific Editor, IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly (in Europe right now)

·         Kosuke Takahashi, Tokyo Correspondent, IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly (in Asia right now)

2) Analysis available for quote now:  

Ted Parsons, correspondent, IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, says: “The 16-wheel TEL is apparently based on a design from the 9th Academy of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), also known as the WanShan truck factory, which produces the WS series of TELs that are used to deploy CASIC’s DF-11, DF-16 and DF-21 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. The CASIC and North Korean TELs have the same windscreen design; the same four windscreen wiper configuration; the same door and handle design; a very similar grill area; almost the same front bumper lighting configuration; and the same design for the cabin steps. CASIC's involvement in North Korea's missile programme would require approval from the highest levels of the Chinese government and the People’s Liberation Army.”

James Hardy, Asia Pacific Editor, IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, said: “If confirmed, China’s involvement in providing this erector-launcher to North Korea would put it in breach of UN Security Council resolution 1874, which prohibits supplying North Korea with ‘any arms or related materiel, or providing financial transactions, technical training, services, or assistance related to such arms’. The possibility that China is supporting North Korea’s strategic weapons programme complicates international efforts to negotiate with North Korea and could fatally undermine the six-party talks, which are hosted by China and are built on the premise that there is a unanimous desire to prevent the North from developing a nuclear capability.”

Doug Richardson’s, Editor, IHS Jane’s Missiles and Rockets, comments: “There is no obvious 'way in' to understanding it and estimating its performance. Right now, we don't even have a reliable estimate of the size, let alone evidence of whether it uses liquid or solid propellant. And we face the conundrum that like the earlier Musudan mobile missile, this beast seems to exist in quantity without ever having been test-flown either in North Korea or in Iran.”

(My latest for Asia Times) Twist and shout, Kim style

Twist and shout, Kim style
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - North Korea's new supreme leader Kim Jong-eun spoke in public for the first time on Sunday after a massive military parade in Pyongyang celebrating the centenary of the birth of the nation's founding father, Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994 and is still the country's "eternal president".

For the young leader (in his twenties), the speech was apparently aimed to add the final touches to consolidating his grip on power after ascending to the top military, party and state titles last week.

Kim said, "What was once a weak country [North Korea] has now transformed into a political and military power: he said. "If we intend to succeed in the great endeavor of building a strong and prosperous socialist state, our first, second, and third steps are to strengthen the people's military in every way possible."

Kim also stressed the importance of economic development. "We must tend well to the precious seeds planted by Comrade Kim Jong-il [his father] for the sake of building a strong and prosperous nation and improving the peoples' lives, cultivating them so that they blossom into a glorious reality."

And as if going into damage control after the embarrassing satellite launch failure on Friday, the third-generation leader firmly stood in the symbolic shadow of his grandfather, Kim Il-sung by imitating everything from his gestures to his way of speaking, hair-style and black Mao Zedong-jacket-type costume.

Experts expect Pyongyang's young master, who is reportedly short of experience and charisma, will continue to establish his authority by stressing his heroic family lineage stretching back to his grandfather's partisan guerilla activities against Japan in the 1930s.

Jong-eun's father, Kim Jong-il, was the supreme leader of North Korea from 1994 until his death in late 2011.

"Kim Jong-eun was almost a carbon copy of his grandfather," Satoru Miyamoto, an expert on North Korean affairs in Japan and an associate professor at Seigakuin University's General Research Institute in Saitama prefecture, told Asia Times Online on Monday. "His vocal quality was almost the same as Kim Il-sung's, so was the way of his speech. Kim Jong-eun sometimes stopped speaking to wait for the public to clap and cheer. Kim Il-sung did the same."

The voice
Kim Jong-eun delivered his first public speech by simply and monotonously reading from prepared text for 20 minutes in front of a crowd of more than 100,000 people, including soldiers. He swayed and twisted his body 111 times during the speech, according to Japanese broadcaster Fuji TV.

It was indeed a rare and - in some way unimaginable - moment, given his father Kim Jong-il's reticent attitude. The "Dear Leader" was known to have said, "Glory to the heroic soldiers of the Korean People's Army!" in 1992, at a ceremony for the army's 60th anniversary. It marked Kim Jong-il's only public speech during his rule, and lasted about five seconds, compared with his third son's 20-minute speech on Sunday.

During his speech, Kim Jong-eun referred to Kim Il-sung's guerilla activities, which are deeply ingrained in the minds of many North Koreans, thus legitimizing the blood-heir's succession over three generations. (In 1931, Kim joined the Communist Party of China and various anti-Japanese guerrilla groups in northern China, and in 1935 he became a member of the Northeast Anti-Japanese United Army, a guerrilla group led by the Communist Party of China.)

The hereditary transfer is also seen in the power elites surrounding Jong-eun. For example, Choe Ryong-hae, 62, whose father was a minister of the People's Armed Forces; Choe Hyon, a close comrade of Kim Il-sung during his days as a partisan fighter, last week completed the climb to the top of the ladder by becoming one of the five members of the decision-making Politburo Presidium of the Workers' Party of Korea as well as vice chairman of the party’s central military commission.

The rise of Choe Ryong-hae, despite his previous civilian status in the Workers' Party, coincides with Kim Jong-eun's ascension to power.

North Korea's top power elite also includes O Il-jong, who is the son of O Jin-u, a former People's Armed Forces minister, and O Kum-chol, who is the son of O Baek-yong, a one-time head of state security. Their fathers were all guerrillas together, and they supported Kim Jong-il when he was in competition with his uncle, Kim Yong-ju, to succeed North Korea founder Kim Il-sung, according to South Korea's Chosun Ilbo.

"The hereditary system of power leads to the stabilization of the current regime," Hiroyasu Akutsu, a professor and senior fellow at the National Institute for Defense Studies, told Asia Times Online on Monday. "It's North Korean version of the Crown Prince Party, or The Princelings."

Japanese experts on North Korean affairs see three pledges in Kim Jong-eun's speech. One is the maintenance of the policies of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il based on their instructions and wills. The second is that the songun (military-first) policy is rooted in the ideology that embodies the juche (self-reliance) idea and strengthens the rigidity of the Kim family dynasty. The third is to establish an economically prosperous nation, which has never been realized to date.

The public in front of the young leader on Sunday displayed unusual characters on placards, such as "No enemy, Strong military", along with the usual characters such as "Military-first politics" and "a strong and prosperous nation". Japanese experts say this represents North Korea's strong willingness to continue developing nuclear and missile programs.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

(My latest for Asia Times) Failure will hit Kim hard

For the Japanese and South Korean governments, today became a very hectic day. I also spent a very busy day. Before heading to Nikkei CNBC studio to appear as a TV guest on North Korean issues,  I had to finish the following story very quickly.
I appeared on Nikkei CNBC as Tokyo correspondent for Jane's Defence Weekly. Today became a memorable day for me!
Have a good weekend!
Cheers,
Kosuke

Asia Times Online :: Korea News and Korean Business and Economy, Pyongyang News

Failure will hit Kim hard
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - North Korea's missile-cum-satellite broke up in the air on Friday morning, so did a beacon of hope for the building of a "strong and prosperous nation".

The news of the failed launch may have shocked Pyongyang, which had for weeks trumpeted the endeavor as a major achievement, but it has brought some comfort to Washington, Tokyo and Seoul. These were among countries that called on North Korea to call off the launch - experts say the Unha-3 carrier's rocket technology could be used to strike the US and other targets with a long-range missile.

In a very rare move, North Korea ate boiled crow. It acknowledged at noon on state television that a satellite launched a few hours earlier from the west coast had failed to enter into orbit, splintering into pieces over the Yellow Sea soon after take-off. "The earth observation satellite failed to enter its preset orbit," the state-run Korean Central News Agency said. "Scientists, technicians and experts are now looking into the cause of the failure."

The failure is a major setback for the young North Korean leader Kim Jong-eun, who aimed to boost his domestic legitimacy and rigidity by launching what the North called an Earth-observation satellite two days ahead of celebrations for the 100th anniversary on Sunday of the birth of founding father Kim Il-sung. Kim Jong-eun's "yes" men and Pyongyang people who were in an enthusiastically festive mood will also be devastated.

"Inviting many foreign media, North Korea has become an object of public ridicule in the world," Masao Okonogi, emeritus professor at Keio University in Tokyo and a noted expert on the affairs of the Korean Peninsula, told Asia Times Online on Friday. "It has acted with arrogance and recklessness more than needed. To recover fallen prestige, it may adopt a more belligerent stance towards other nations."

Okonogi said that since Pyongyang believed the US, Japan and South Korea would now not take North Korea's threats seriously, given the failed rocket launch, it would take the risky step of conducting its third nuclear test.

"North Korea is only further isolating itself by engaging in provocative acts, and is wasting its money on weapons and propaganda displays while the North Korean people go hungry," the US White House said in a statement after the launch. "North Korea's long-standing development of missiles and pursuit of nuclear weapons have not brought it security - and never will."

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Friday ordered an emergency meeting to condemn the failed launch, but it is unlikely to order immediate new sanctions against the isolated state, although Japan and South Korea are taking tougher stances.

This is because it is believed China will only allow the UNSC to vote on a resolution condemning the launch, but will not back any attempts to impose fresh sanctions against Pyongyang. Experts expect Beijing will do everything in its power to prevent North Korea from being destabilized.

Since the beginning of the Cold War, North Korea had been seen as China's first line of defense and strategic buffer zone vis-a-vis the Western bloc, led by the US. Beijing is also afraid of a refugee flood once public safety gets worse in North Korea.

Hiroyasu Akutsu, a professor and senior fellow at the National Institute for Defense Studies, a Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD) think-tank, takes a similar view as Okonogi.

"North Korea aims to become a science-and-technology powerhouse as well as a strong and prosperous nation," Akutsu said. "So today's rocket launch failure should be very shocking to them."

Akustu said, depending on how strongly the UNSC) acted against North Korea, led by the lobbying of the US, Japan and South Korea, the risk remained that Pyongyang would continue to resort to missile-firing, nuclear tests and other provocations to demonstrate to the rest of world its military capabilities.

"Kim Jong-eun's new regime is calling for a continuation of songun [military first] politics, so it will continue to pursue its nuclear and missile development programs to boost its national prestige and strengthen the regime's foundations."

North Korea conducted similar long-range Taepodong-2 tests in 2006 and 2009, but with unsuccessful results.

A source close to Japan's defense intelligence said Kim Jong-eun pushed the rocket-firing button on Friday under pressure from the powerful military to coincide with the celebrations for the anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, despite a lack of full preparations for the launch.

Akutsu at Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies also pointed out that among the military power elite is Korean People's Army chief of staff Ri Yong-ho, believed to be one of Kim Jong-eun's closest confidants.

Ri is thought to have been a supervisor of Jong-eun when the young leader studied at the Kim Il Sung Military Academy. His thesis was said to be "Missile Guidance by GPS", according to the Japanese intelligence community.

Among other military officers who pressed the young master of the nation to conduct the launch include Pak To-chun, Ju Kyu-chang and Paek Se-bong. They have been called the "three-man team of missile guidance" by the South Korean intelligence community and were recently promoted to high-ranking generals, despite their previous civilian status.

Japanese experts on North Korea think Kim Jong-eun cannot easily punish them over the launch failure because of his heavy dependence on them in terms of political management and the ruling of the country. Akutsu said they would more likely receive an amnesty thanks to the celebration of the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birth for Sunday.

Okonogi at Keio University, meanwhile, pointed out that North Korean moderates such as its foreign affairs bureaucrats will gain more power, rather than hardliners in military circles in the wake of the debacle.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

(My latest story for Asia Times Online): Rocket reaction follows familiar trajectory

Asia Times Online :: Rocket reaction follows familiar trajectory

Rocket reaction follows familiar trajectory
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - As North Korean leader Kim Jong-eun completes his official ascent to power this week at rare party conferences, Pyongyang will almost certainly go ahead with its launch of what it claims is a satellite but which other countries insist is a ballistic missile.

The United States, Japan and South Korea have all indicated that they will call for United Nations Security Council (UNSC) action if North Korea presses ahead with its launch between April 12 and 16. The United Kingdom and Russia have also demanded that North Korea cancel it, while even ally China has expressed concerns.

Pyongyang says the launch is part of mass celebrations to mark the centenary of the birth of founding father Kim Il-sung, and has warned that despite the mounting international pressure, any interception of the "Earth-observation satellite" Kwangmyongsong-3 would amount to "an act of war".

The same threats were heard during a similar North Korean rocket launch in April 2009, and analysts say that in many aspects, history is repeating itself.

"The current situation seems to be following the same pattern as 2009," Masao Okonogi, emeritus professor at Keio University in Tokyo and a well-noted expert on the affairs of the Korean Peninsula, told Asia Times Online on Wednesday.

A repeat of 2009?
It may be worth while looking a little deeper into related events in 2009.

On April 5 that year, North Korea launched an Unha-2 rocket carrying a satellite called Kwangmyongsong-2; it was a startling early-morning wake-up call to then traveling US President Barack Obama, who was in Prague.

In the following week, the UNSC issued a presidential statement condemning the launch as a violation of UNSC resolution 1718, which was adopted in October 2006 in the aftermath of the North's first nuclear test in the same month. North Korea must not "conduct any further nuclear test or launch of a ballistic missile" wrote resolution 1718, adding that it must "suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program".

Pyongyang reacted harshly at the time. It declared that the Security Council statement "violently infringed on our republic's sovereignty and gravely defiled our people's dignity" and vowed to not return to six-party talks aimed at the North's scrapping of its nuclear arms program that hadn't - and still haven't - been held since December 2008.

Pyongyang warned that it would "strengthen its self-defensive nuclear deterrent in every way". The North conducted a second nuclear test on May 25, 2009, six weeks after the statement was issued.

North Korea claims the impending launch is of a satellite launch vehicle (SLV) as opposed to a ballistic missile, as it claimed during a similar test in April 2009. But they are effectively the same technology. Even the launch of a SLV would strengthen North Korea's ballistic missile capabilities. For this reason, UNSC resolution 1874 is relevant. Adopted in June 2009, it demands Pyongyang "not conduct any further nuclear test or any launch using ballistic missile technology".

"North Korea is now playing a diplomatic game with two dimensions," Okonogi said.

According to him, Pyongyang's first aim is to develop nuclear and missile programs that boost its negotiating stance against the US. Okonogi says that this is part of a strategic "grand design" to acquire the deterrent capabilities that will ultimately achieve a peace treaty with the US, which includes provisions for the withdrawal of US combat troops from South Korea.

"In this sense, North Korea will no doubt conduct a third nuclear test," Okonogi said.

The second diplomatic game, which Okinogi says is on a smaller scale, deals with the so-called "leap-day deal" on a nuclear moratorium with the US.

After talks between top US and North Korea officials on February 29, the North agreed to stop nuclear tests, uranium enrichment and long-range missile launches, and to allow checks by nuclear inspectors. In return, Washington said it was ready to go ahead with a proposed 240,000 tonne food aid package and that more aid could be agreed to based on continued need.

Okonogi said that with the US presidential election approaching, Pyongyang thinks Washington won't be able to take hardline measures that create yet an additional diplomatic problem to the tensions with Iran over its nuclear program. A third nuclear test by the North would give fresh ammunition to Republican presidential nominee former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Obama's critics, hurting his chances of re-election.

Kim Jong-eun is likely copying other successful instances of North Korea adopting a belligerent stance towards the US. For example, the George W Bush administration in October 2008 removed North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism even after the Pyongyang's first nuclear test in October 2006.

Pyongyang at that time had resorted to its favorite tactic of brinkmanship to escalate tensions and wring concessions. It said it was working on restarting its nuclear plant and dismissed the prospect of being removed from a US terrorism blacklist in return for a disarmament deal.

The Bush administration, however, was very eager for a rare foreign-policy success in its final months in office and made a series of compromises toward Pyongyang - a similar pattern.

The Obama administration must measure a tougher stance against Pyongyang with concerns of a third nuclear test in coming months. On the other hand, backtracking hands North Korea's young master Kim Jong-eun a diplomatic victory against the US. Once again, the North presents Washington with a thorny dilemma.

China against further UN sanctions
Complicating the issue, analysts say China will veto any UN statement suggesting fresh UNSC sanctions as well as any US attempts to impose additional punitive measures against North Korea following the launch of its Unha-3 rocket.

"If the US, Japan or South Korea ask for additional sanctions, China will oppose them," said Satoru Miyamoto, an expert on North Korean affairs in Japan and an associate professor at Seigakuin University's General Research Institute in Saitama prefecture,

Miyamoto said Beijing would do everything in its power to prevent North Korea from being destabilized, citing neighboring China's geographical and geopolitical closeness to the Hermit Kingdom.

He points out that since 2009, China has opposed UN statements against North Korea to avoid letting the situation deteriorate further for the sake of Beijing, and that Beijing has a vital interest such as the North's alleged March 2010 sinking of South Korean navy corvette Cheonan.

"All sides should respect international law to prevent the worsening of tensions on the peninsula," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said on April 10.

Beijing is concerned that the launch, which could take place around the time on the centenary of Kim Il-sung's birth, will trigger a new regional crisis, much to Beijing's embarrassment.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

(My latest story for Asia Times Online): Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch

North Korea’s erratic behavior is now part of the East Asian landscape. It is widely taken as almost like a daily occurrence in the region. In Japan, since Pyongyang’s belligerent and proactive behavior is too familiar, ordinary people are not at all surprised to see it.

Then, why are Japanese and United States forces taking the launch so seriously? That's partly because it presents a perfect opportunity to simulate a Chinese missile attack. Please go over my story. Cheers, Kosuke

Asia Times Online :: Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch

Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch
Japan has prepared land-based missile interceptors and dispatched three Aegis-equipped destroyers in preparation for North Korea's launch of an "earth-observation satellite", prompting accusations that Tokyo is overreacting. However, part of the reason Japanese and United States forces are taking the launch so seriously is because it presents a perfect opportunity to simulate a Chinese missile attack. - Kosuke Takahashi (Apr 3, '12)

Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - As North Korea ramps up preparations for its planned mid-April launch of an "earth-observation satellite", Japan, South Korea and the United States are rushing to prepare weapons that could shoot it down.

The Japanese government is deploying warships and a missile shield to destroy any long-range missile that threatens its territory. "We must take all possible measures to protect Japanese lives and property," Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka said in response to North Korean missile launch plans, at the Ministry of Defense initiation ceremony on April 2.

To activate Japan's missile defense system and intercept the missile or any debris from it, the minister has ordered the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) to deploy land-based PAC-3 interceptors to a total of seven locations in the Tokyo metropolitan area as well as on the Okinawa, Ishigaki and Miyako islands in southwestern Japan.

In addition, three Kongo-class Aegis-equipped destroyers fitted with Standard SM-3 Block IA missiles, namely, Chokai, Kirishima and Myoko, are being deployed to the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan to track the launch.

"Although some people say Japan is overreacting this time, I do not think so," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online. "It would be too late once the damage is done. It's normal counter-measures as a nation."

Hideshi Takesada, a professor of international relations at South Korea's Yonsei University, takes a similar view: "Compared with Seoul's counter-measures, Japan is not overreacting. There is not much difference between the two nations."

With the assistance of the US Forces Korea, the South Korean government also plans to shoot down the North Korean rocket should it veer off course, causing the first stage booster to fall on its territory.

"Looking back at history, one Chinese rocket strayed off course, causing hundreds of casualties," said Takesada, a former executive director of the National Institute for Defense Studies in Tokyo, the Japanese Ministry of Defense's think-tank. In 1996, a Long March 3 rocket flew off course and crashed into a village, with estimates of deaths reaching over 100.

"It's necessary to expend all possible means to protect the lives and property of the people from a missile or any falling objects," said Takesada.

Pyongyang announced on March 16 that it would launch an Unha-3 rocket carrying an earth-observation satellite called Kwangmyongsong-3 between April 12 and 16, dates that coincide with celebrations for the 100th anniversary of the birth of founding father Kim Il-sung.

North Korea claims the impending launch is of a satellite launch vehicle (SLV) as opposed to a ballistic missile, as it claimed during a similar test in April 2009. But they are effectively the same technology. Even the launch of an SLV would strengthen North Korea's ballistic missile capabilities.

US-Japan military rehearsal
Another reason Japan and the US Forces Japan (USFJ) are taking North Korea's launch plan so seriously is that this presents a golden opportunity to simulate a missile attack from China. For the US and Japan, the preparation for the North's upcoming rocket launch are as good as joint exercises against a mock Chinese assault.

Those Chinese missiles that would be used in such an attack include its solid-fuelled intermediate-range ballistic missiles and the Dong Feng (DF)-21 family of medium-range ballistic missiles. The DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, known as the "aircraft carrier killer", has caused serious concern in US intelligence circles as it would boost Beijing's "anti-access/area denial" capability in the West Pacific. US officials believe it could limit the movements of the US Seventh Fleet region should conflict erupt there.

How to deal with a rising China is the biggest common interest of the US and Japan. China's growing naval power and its enhanced strike capabilities are reshaping the security dynamic in the region. This has caused the US to shift its security pivot toward the Asia-Pacific by expanding its military footprint in Australia, the Philippines and Singapore. With the Pentagon well aware of China's "anti-access/area denial" strategy and focused on the so-called AirSea battle concept, it aims to move US Marines currently stationed on Japan's Okinawa Island to other areas out of from China's missile strike range.

Japan, meanwhile, has also been strengthening security around the Nansei (Southwestern) Islands in Okinawa Prefecture by adopting a new concept called "Dynamic Defense Force" - a move that is apparently aimed at countering China's growing activities in the East China Sea. Under this new guideline, Tokyo aims to enhance the SDF presence in those islands.

"China cannot voice objections to an integrated US-Japan ballistic missile defense capability this time, as long as North Korea is a cause of the problem," Shikata, a professor at Teikyo University in Tokyo and retired lieutenant general of the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Forces. "North Korea's missile launch provides the US and Japan a good opportunity to go through a rehearsal against China's missile."

Closer integration of US and Japanese forces
A recent move to integrate the Japan Air Self-Defense Force's main command with the US Yokota Air Base, which is home to USFJ headquarters and the US 5th Air Force, suggest an increase in bilateral military cooperation is planned.

The move is part of a 2006 agreement on the realignment of USFJ. The new command center could soon have its first test if Pyongyang goes ahead with its planned satellite launch in mid-April. The center is expected to instruct Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) destroyers equipped with the Aegis system and the PAC-3 air Defense missile interceptor units.

The JMSDF has also already relocated its command centre to Yokosuka Naval Base: also home to the US Navy's 7th Fleet. The Japan Ground Self-Defense Force's Central Readiness Force, which is currently based at Camp Asaka in Saitama Prefecture, is also scheduled to move to Camp Zama, the home of US Army Japan, in March 2013. These moves are highly likely to strengthen the two nations' defense collaboration further against China and North Korea.

North Korea on March 27 reaffirmed its plan to launch a "satellite" despite the mounting international pressure. Experts expect this will be a serious blow to recent diplomatic recent progress between the North and the US. In response to Pyongyang's planned "satellite" launch, the US has suspended food aid to Pyongyang, saying it has broken the terms of a February 29 agreement to halt its nuclear activities.

Similarly in May 2008, the US announced it would resume food assistance to North Korea. But just a few months later Pyongyang refused to receive the US food assistance and kicked out American non-governmental organizations. This was followed by a missile launch in April 2009 and a second nuclear test in May 2009.

The US can share part of the blame for today's confusion concerning North Korea. The Barack Obama administration seems to have rushed towards negotiations with Pyongyang, eager for a foreign-policy success ahead of November's presidential election. Obama also likely believed he could take advantage of the leadership change following Dear Leader Kim Jong-il's death last December. President Bill Clinton tried to do the same in the wake of Kim Il-sung's death in 1994, but the subsequent agreements collapsed.

"The US was fooled again by Pyongyang," Shikata said. "It will maintain a cautious distance from North Korea from now on."

"The Obama administration underestimated North Korea," added Takesada. "It was put to shame in public."

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

(My latest stories for JDW) Japanese analyst says North Korea 'years away' from developing ICBM

ASIA PACIFIC Date Posted: 30-Mar-2012 Jane's Defence Weekly Japanese analyst says North Korea 'years away' from developing ICBM Kosuke Takahashi JDW Correspondent Tokyo North Korea probably needs several more years to develop nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of threatening the US mainland, according to a senior fellow from a Japanese Ministry of Defence (MoD) think-tank. "It may take several years, not a few years, for the North to be able to develop [ICBMs] that are capable of carrying nuclear warheads and hitting the continental United States", Hiroyasu Akutsu, a professor and senior fellow at the National Institute for Defence Studies, told IHS Jane's on 29 March. Akutsu said North Korea's planned mid-April launch of what Pyongyang says is a satellite will provide an opportunity to confirm the country's current missile capability. North Korea reaffirmed on 27 March that the launch was not a long-range missile test. However, Akutsu said the 'satellite launch' two years ago made it difficult to take Pyongyang's claims at face value. "In April 2009 we couldn't confirm that North Korea had put a satellite into orbit," Akutsu said. "No North Korean flying object emitted any electric waves. If it had been a satellite, it should've sent some signals." Japan, South Korea, Russia and the US have demanded that North Korea cancel the upcoming launch, while China expressed "deep apprehension". However, Akutsu said that Pyongyang would almost certainly press ahead despite the mounting international pressure. Asked about the implications of North Korea's launch for Japanese defence, he said: "If the missile crosses over Japan's Nansei islands, we will be forced to reconsider Japan's air defence in that region." Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2012 ASIA PACIFIC Date Posted: 29-Mar-2012 Jane's Defence Weekly Mitsubishi starts building ATD-X stealth prototype Kosuke Takahashi JDW Correspondent Tokyo Mitsubishi Heavy Industries on 28 March began assembling the Advanced Technology Demonstrator-X (ATD-X) fighter: a prototype for a future fighter to replace the Japan Air Self-Defence Force's Mitsubishi F-2. "The aim is to produce a purely indigenous fighter aircraft," Takashi Kobayashi, general manager of Mitsubishi Heavy's aerospace systems, said at a ceremony at the company's Tobishima plant in Aichi Prefecture. "Today marks the first step on the tough road towards that goal." The ATD-X, also known as 'Shinshin' (Heart of God), is being developed by the Ministry of Defence (MoD), which has provided a project budget of JPY39.2 billion (USD480 million). It plans for the ATD-X to be airborne by Fiscal Year 2014. The ATD-X has been designed to be a stealthy air-superiority fighter with enhanced manoeuvrability. The MoD will use it to research advanced technologies and system integration, after which it plans to produce a sixth-generation fighter encompassing I3 (informed, intelligent and instantaneous) concepts and counter-stealth characteristics. Fuji Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Heavy are to manufacture the aircraft's fuselage, main wings and cockpit, while Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (IHI) is providing two XF5-1 twin-turbofan afterburning engines for the prototype. To reduce the aircraft's weight, carbon fibre-reinforced plastic (CFRP) is being used for around 30 per cent of the whole airframe. Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2012

Asia Times Online :: Damage control, not the end of nukes

My latest story Asia Times Online :: Damage control, not the end of nukes

Damage control, not the end of nukes
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - Although the nuclear deal between North Korea and the United States may help defuse spiraling tensions in East Asia, it represents a harsh new reality: US nuclear diplomacy is unable to "end" North Korea's nuclear weapons program. Rather, it can only halt it.
With American foreign policy swamped with Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere, the Barack Obama administration apparently aims to just "manage and control" the US relationship with North Korea - by keeping it from escalating out of control.
Experts expect North Korea's actions this time may pave the way for a resumption of the six-party talks, but the talks would be more aimed at arms control and disarmament of the Korean peninsula, rather than its denuclearization.

"In recent years, senior US government officials have managed and controlled US relations with North Korea, rather than pursued an engagement policy," Young C Kim, professor emeritus of George Washington University, said at a recent forum in Tokyo. "It is problematic in that it tends to become a policy of tacit approval."

On Wednesday, Washington and Pyongyang announced that North Korea had agreed to implement a moratorium on long-range missile launches, nuclear tests, and nuclear activities at its Yongbyon research center including uranium enrichment activities, in return for US food aid.

But on the same day, key differences on the agreement emerged. The US said Pyongyang has agreed to monitoring of its plutonium program and uranium enrichment activities by the International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA), while the North did not confirm this.

In any case, the US and South Korean intelligence agencies know there are other uranium enrichment facilities besides Yongbyon - North Korea only offered Yongbyon up as a concession while hiding other cards, in a classic salami-slice strategy.

A hungry child knows no politics
The US is to provide 240,000 tonnes of nutritional aid such as corn-soy blend, vegetable oil and therapeutic foods for children under the age of 6, pregnant women and elderly citizens to meet the North's urgent needs.

Interestingly enough, the tonnage of nutritional assistance is almost the same amount then Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi offered in May 2004 in return for the family members of five former abductees by North Korea.

Pyongyang is no doubt desperate for food. A call made in a joint New Year's Day editorial by three major North Korean newspapers on January 1 that were considered Pyongyang's policy guidelines for the new year stressed increased efforts in the country to address food shortages, which it said are a ''burning issue in building a thriving country".

For the US, bilateral negotiations with North Korea on humanitarian assistance such as food aid, as well as on the hunt for the remains of soldiers missing-in-action from the Korean War, have been always possible even amid intensified tensions.

This is because the traditional US food aid policy is based on the slogan of "a hungry child knows no politics," as the late president Ronald Reagan said, although every famine is complicated by politics.
Buying time and putting off the inevitable
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the current consensus view in the Obama administration appears to be that the North Korean problem is best managed through diplomacy. A CSIS study shows that over the past 35 years, Pyongyang has not fired missiles or torpedoed ships when its diplomats are sitting at the table with Americans (with one exception in 1998).

Obama's personal mission to advocate "a world without nuclear weapons" is fading, especially when a nuclear Iran seems ever more imminent. But he needs to keep Pyongyang from conducting a third nuclear bomb test in the lead-up to the US presidential election due this November. The US may want to grasp an understanding for the newly born Kim Jong-eun's rule via bilateral talks and the six-party talks - involving the US, Japan, South and North Korea, China and Russia.

"Please note that the United States has long said that we will never accept North Korea as a nuclear power," Pentagon spokesperson Leslie Hull-Ryde told Asia Times Online.

For Pyongyang, all of the recent movements may be just dilatory efforts. Military experts expect the North would develop intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying downsized nuclear warheads and reaching the US mainland, which would significantly strengthen the North's hand and deepen the security fears of regional rivals such as Japan and South Korea.

There is a widespread view among experts that Pyongyang will not and cannot abandon its nuclear and missile development, despite any compromises by the Obama administration as it eagerly seeks another foreign-policy success in this election year.
For young leader Kim Jong-eun, nuclear-tipped missiles are still the strongest weapon and best deterrent against regime collapse in the Hermit Kingdom. He will hang on to them by all means.

The existing six-party talks could be set aside and a foreign ministerial meeting be held among six nations "to discuss the issue of peace, security and economic cooperation," George Washington University's Kim said. "By way of that foreign ministerial meeting, bilateral talks between North Korea and the US, between South and North Koreas, and between Japan and North Korea, can be held."

Lee Jong Won, professor of International Politics at Rikkyo University, echoed Kim's views.

"Professor Kim's proposal is based on realism," Lee said. "Future six-party talks could be reclassified as 'disarmament' negotiations, rather than aiming at the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. It would be more like Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, which adopted the Helsinki Declaration."

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

(Jane's Defence Weekly) North Korea could be preparing the site for a third nuclear test

ASIA PACIFIC


Date Posted: 23-Jun-2011

Jane's Defence Weekly
________________________________________

Satellite images show continued activity at North Korea's nuclear test site

Allison Puccioni Jane's Image Analyst

California

James Hardy JDW Asia-Pacific Editor

London

Key Points

• Images taken of North Korea's nuclear test site on 10 June 2011 show significant excavation since October 2010

• The images suggest that North Korea could be preparing the site for a third nuclear test following similar tests in 2006 and 2009

Satellite images provided by GeoEye show continued activity at the site of North Korea's 2006 and 2009 underground nuclear tests.

A comparison of 10 June 2011 images with those taken by DigitalGlobe on 16 October 2010 shows significantly more excavation at two sites: one just south of the test site operations base and one about 900 m east of the main base. The latter site also has three new buildings.

The 10 June GeoEye image shows 25-30 per cent more excavation extending far closer to the adjacent road. This may suggest that a tunnel is being excavated in preparation for a nuclear test.

North Korea tested nuclear devices in 2006 and 2009 in tunnels at the site, which is on the slopes of Mount Mantap-san about 42 km northwest of Kilchu, North Hamgyong province. Ahead of the 2006 test, it was reported that the North Koreans had excavated a 700 m-long horizontal tunnel under Mantap-san.

ANALYSIS

Jane's analysis of the site comes after diplomatic sources reported rumours of nuclear weapon-related activity in the past three months. Jane's reported on 10 June that satellite imagery showed no activity at two known missile test sites in North Korea; the imagery of the Kilchu site illustrates that, if there is activity, it is taking place at the nuclear test site.

Scott Snyder, director of the Center for US-Korea Policy in Washington, DC, said it was unclear what Pyongyang would gain from holding a test now.

"A new nuclear test would result in a drive to ratchet up UN sanctions and would test China's strategic commitment to North Korea," Snyder said.

"Given the poor prospects for inter-Korean relations for the foreseeable future, it is possible that the North Koreans might see heightened tensions as a vehicle for getting around South Korea and drawing new attention from the US, but this sort of strategy has proven increasingly ineffective in drawing the sort of attention that North Korea wants."

A diplomatic source told Jane's that recent weeks had seen no major changes in North Korean rhetoric, most of which referred to retaliation for propaganda balloon releases into the North by South Korean political groups and demands for the return of nine North Korean refugees who sailed into South Korean waters in mid-June.