(My latest story for Jane's Defence Weekly) US, Japan revise realignment plans for US forces

ASIA PACIFIC Date Posted: 27-Apr-2012 Jane's Defence Weekly US, Japan revise realignment plans for US forces Kosuke Takahashi JDW Correspondent Tokyo James Hardy JDW Asia-Pacific Editor London Key Points The US and Japan have unveiled a new agreement on the realignment of US forces currently based in Okinawa Prefecture The agreement moves forward with plans to relocate 9,000 US marines outside Japan without resolving the contentious Futenma air base replacement The United States and Japan on 26 April unveiled a revised agreement to transfer 9,000 US Marine Corps (USMC) troops from Okinawa Prefecture to Guam and other bases in the Western Pacific: a move intended to reduce the impact of US bases on the southern Japanese island chain. The accord, which updates a 2006 agreement on the realignment of US forces in Japan, will relocate about 5,000 marines from Okinawa to Guam - a US territory - and the remaining 4,000 to Hawaii and Australia. About 10,000 troops will remain in Okinawa. ''These adjustments are necessary to realise a US force posture in the Asia-Pacific region that is more geographically distributed, operationally resilient and politically sustainable,'' the joint statement said. The statement also opens up the possibility of reviewing a long-standing plan to relocate Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma. The local government has demanded the closure of the Futenma site, which is situated in a built-up area, but has rejected a plan to construct a sea-based replacement facility off Camp Schwab in the north of the island. While the agreement said this "remains the only viable solution that has been identified to date", the phrase "that has been identified to date" is an addition to previous statements. Another new development is a plan to consider developing sites in Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, such as the Tinian and Pagan islands, as shared-use exercise facilities for US forces and the Japan Self-Defence Forces. The agreement also confirmed that six military facilities south of Kadena Air Base will be returned to Japan, including Camp Kuwae, Camp Zukeran and MCAS Futenma, although the air station will remain open until a replacement is operational, a senior US official said. The two governments said the total cost of relocating marines and their dependents from Okinawa to Guam would be lowered to USD8.6 billion from the original USD10.27 billion. However, the cost to Japan has risen from a maximum of USD2.8 billion to USD3.1 billion, compensating for inflation. COMMENT The revised realignment is a partial victory for local residents and the prefectural government, both of which have faced down immense pressure from Tokyo to agree to the 2006 realignment plan and, in particular, the relocation of MCAS Futenma to the north of Okinawa island. A senior Obama administration official admitted as much in a background briefing, saying that "we've been spending so much time talking about the move from Futenma that we're not making as much progress as we would have liked in other aspects of the alliance". A senior Pentagon official concurred, admitting that the revised agreement relaxed the commitment to the Futenma replacement plan to give "the government of Japan the political space that it needs to advance the issue on Okinawa". US officials are eager to describe this agreement as naturally fitting a renewed focus on the region. The Pentagon official said it would provide "an improved USMC force posture in the Asia-Pacific, one that is more capable and more geographically distributed. This presence is integral to our larger strategy of rebalancing towards the Asia-Pacific". The official added that by removing a key sticking point the US-Japan alliance could focus on "a forward-looking agenda ... including co-operation in cyber security, in space, in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations. A number of areas where we really, I think, have a shared interest in deepening our co-operation". No timeline has been set for the realignment, but a number of actors could affect how quickly it occurs. These include senior members of the US Senate Armed Services Committee, who already said they were concerned about the cost of the realignment, and Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima.                       Under realignment plans announced on 26 April, the US will return six facilities on Okinawa to Japan, including Camp Kuwae, Camp Zukeran and Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma. (IHS/Roberto Filistad) Related Articles US, Japan postpone report on force realignment, jdw.janes.com, 26.04.12 Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2012

(My latest story for Asia Times Online): Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch

North Korea’s erratic behavior is now part of the East Asian landscape. It is widely taken as almost like a daily occurrence in the region. In Japan, since Pyongyang’s belligerent and proactive behavior is too familiar, ordinary people are not at all surprised to see it.

Then, why are Japanese and United States forces taking the launch so seriously? That's partly because it presents a perfect opportunity to simulate a Chinese missile attack. Please go over my story. Cheers, Kosuke

Asia Times Online :: Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch

Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch
Japan has prepared land-based missile interceptors and dispatched three Aegis-equipped destroyers in preparation for North Korea's launch of an "earth-observation satellite", prompting accusations that Tokyo is overreacting. However, part of the reason Japanese and United States forces are taking the launch so seriously is because it presents a perfect opportunity to simulate a Chinese missile attack. - Kosuke Takahashi (Apr 3, '12)

Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - As North Korea ramps up preparations for its planned mid-April launch of an "earth-observation satellite", Japan, South Korea and the United States are rushing to prepare weapons that could shoot it down.

The Japanese government is deploying warships and a missile shield to destroy any long-range missile that threatens its territory. "We must take all possible measures to protect Japanese lives and property," Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka said in response to North Korean missile launch plans, at the Ministry of Defense initiation ceremony on April 2.

To activate Japan's missile defense system and intercept the missile or any debris from it, the minister has ordered the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) to deploy land-based PAC-3 interceptors to a total of seven locations in the Tokyo metropolitan area as well as on the Okinawa, Ishigaki and Miyako islands in southwestern Japan.

In addition, three Kongo-class Aegis-equipped destroyers fitted with Standard SM-3 Block IA missiles, namely, Chokai, Kirishima and Myoko, are being deployed to the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan to track the launch.

"Although some people say Japan is overreacting this time, I do not think so," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online. "It would be too late once the damage is done. It's normal counter-measures as a nation."

Hideshi Takesada, a professor of international relations at South Korea's Yonsei University, takes a similar view: "Compared with Seoul's counter-measures, Japan is not overreacting. There is not much difference between the two nations."

With the assistance of the US Forces Korea, the South Korean government also plans to shoot down the North Korean rocket should it veer off course, causing the first stage booster to fall on its territory.

"Looking back at history, one Chinese rocket strayed off course, causing hundreds of casualties," said Takesada, a former executive director of the National Institute for Defense Studies in Tokyo, the Japanese Ministry of Defense's think-tank. In 1996, a Long March 3 rocket flew off course and crashed into a village, with estimates of deaths reaching over 100.

"It's necessary to expend all possible means to protect the lives and property of the people from a missile or any falling objects," said Takesada.

Pyongyang announced on March 16 that it would launch an Unha-3 rocket carrying an earth-observation satellite called Kwangmyongsong-3 between April 12 and 16, dates that coincide with celebrations for the 100th anniversary of the birth of founding father Kim Il-sung.

North Korea claims the impending launch is of a satellite launch vehicle (SLV) as opposed to a ballistic missile, as it claimed during a similar test in April 2009. But they are effectively the same technology. Even the launch of an SLV would strengthen North Korea's ballistic missile capabilities.

US-Japan military rehearsal
Another reason Japan and the US Forces Japan (USFJ) are taking North Korea's launch plan so seriously is that this presents a golden opportunity to simulate a missile attack from China. For the US and Japan, the preparation for the North's upcoming rocket launch are as good as joint exercises against a mock Chinese assault.

Those Chinese missiles that would be used in such an attack include its solid-fuelled intermediate-range ballistic missiles and the Dong Feng (DF)-21 family of medium-range ballistic missiles. The DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, known as the "aircraft carrier killer", has caused serious concern in US intelligence circles as it would boost Beijing's "anti-access/area denial" capability in the West Pacific. US officials believe it could limit the movements of the US Seventh Fleet region should conflict erupt there.

How to deal with a rising China is the biggest common interest of the US and Japan. China's growing naval power and its enhanced strike capabilities are reshaping the security dynamic in the region. This has caused the US to shift its security pivot toward the Asia-Pacific by expanding its military footprint in Australia, the Philippines and Singapore. With the Pentagon well aware of China's "anti-access/area denial" strategy and focused on the so-called AirSea battle concept, it aims to move US Marines currently stationed on Japan's Okinawa Island to other areas out of from China's missile strike range.

Japan, meanwhile, has also been strengthening security around the Nansei (Southwestern) Islands in Okinawa Prefecture by adopting a new concept called "Dynamic Defense Force" - a move that is apparently aimed at countering China's growing activities in the East China Sea. Under this new guideline, Tokyo aims to enhance the SDF presence in those islands.

"China cannot voice objections to an integrated US-Japan ballistic missile defense capability this time, as long as North Korea is a cause of the problem," Shikata, a professor at Teikyo University in Tokyo and retired lieutenant general of the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Forces. "North Korea's missile launch provides the US and Japan a good opportunity to go through a rehearsal against China's missile."

Closer integration of US and Japanese forces
A recent move to integrate the Japan Air Self-Defense Force's main command with the US Yokota Air Base, which is home to USFJ headquarters and the US 5th Air Force, suggest an increase in bilateral military cooperation is planned.

The move is part of a 2006 agreement on the realignment of USFJ. The new command center could soon have its first test if Pyongyang goes ahead with its planned satellite launch in mid-April. The center is expected to instruct Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) destroyers equipped with the Aegis system and the PAC-3 air Defense missile interceptor units.

The JMSDF has also already relocated its command centre to Yokosuka Naval Base: also home to the US Navy's 7th Fleet. The Japan Ground Self-Defense Force's Central Readiness Force, which is currently based at Camp Asaka in Saitama Prefecture, is also scheduled to move to Camp Zama, the home of US Army Japan, in March 2013. These moves are highly likely to strengthen the two nations' defense collaboration further against China and North Korea.

North Korea on March 27 reaffirmed its plan to launch a "satellite" despite the mounting international pressure. Experts expect this will be a serious blow to recent diplomatic recent progress between the North and the US. In response to Pyongyang's planned "satellite" launch, the US has suspended food aid to Pyongyang, saying it has broken the terms of a February 29 agreement to halt its nuclear activities.

Similarly in May 2008, the US announced it would resume food assistance to North Korea. But just a few months later Pyongyang refused to receive the US food assistance and kicked out American non-governmental organizations. This was followed by a missile launch in April 2009 and a second nuclear test in May 2009.

The US can share part of the blame for today's confusion concerning North Korea. The Barack Obama administration seems to have rushed towards negotiations with Pyongyang, eager for a foreign-policy success ahead of November's presidential election. Obama also likely believed he could take advantage of the leadership change following Dear Leader Kim Jong-il's death last December. President Bill Clinton tried to do the same in the wake of Kim Il-sung's death in 1994, but the subsequent agreements collapsed.

"The US was fooled again by Pyongyang," Shikata said. "It will maintain a cautious distance from North Korea from now on."

"The Obama administration underestimated North Korea," added Takesada. "It was put to shame in public."

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

My latest for JDW. Mitsubishi starts building ATD-X stealth prototype

SIA PACIFIC Date Posted: 29-Mar-2012 Jane's Defence Weekly Mitsubishi starts building ATD-X stealth prototype Kosuke Takahashi JDW Correspondent Tokyo Mitsubishi Heavy Industries on 28 March began assembling the Advanced Technology Demonstrator-X (ATD-X) fighter: a prototype for a future fighter to replace the Japan Air Self-Defence Force's Mitsubishi F-2. "The aim is to produce a purely indigenous fighter aircraft," Takashi Kobayashi, general manager of Mitsubishi Heavy's aerospace systems, said at a ceremony at the company's Tobishima plant in Aichi Prefecture. "Today marks the first step on the tough road towards that goal." The ATD-X, also known as 'Shinshin' (Heart of God), is being developed by the Ministry of Defence (MoD), which has provided a project budget of JPY39.2 billion (USD480 million). It plans for the ATD-X to be airborne by Fiscal Year 2014.      The ATD-X has been designed to be a stealthy air-superiority fighter with enhanced manoeuvrability. The MoD will use it to research advanced technologies and system integration, after which it plans to produce a sixth-generation fighter encompassing I3 (informed, intelligent and instantaneous) concepts and counter-stealth characteristics.       Fuji Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Heavy are to manufacture the aircraft's fuselage, main wings and cockpit, while Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (IHI) is providing two XF5-1 twin-turbofan afterburning engines for the prototype. To reduce the aircraft's weight, carbon fibre-reinforced plastic (CFRP) is being used for around 30 per cent of the whole airframe. Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2012

My latest stories for JDW（Japan could provide Philippines with coastguard ships, etc）

ASIA PACIFIC Date Posted: 28-Mar-2012 Jane's Defence Weekly Japan air command completes move to US air base Kosuke Takahashi JDW Correspondent Tokyo The Japan Air Self-Defence Force's (JASDF's) main command was officially transferred on 26 March to the US Yokota Air Base: home to US Forces Japan (USFJ) headquarters and the US 5th Air Force. The move is part of the 2006 agreement on the realignment of US forces in Japan. The new command centre could be tested soon if North Korea goes ahead with its planned satellite launch in mid-April. The command is expected to instruct Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF) destroyers equipped with the Aegis system and the land-based PAC-3 air defence missile interceptor units. "This move will bring a higher level of deterrence and coping capacity to Japan-US ties," Commander Harukazu Saito said at the opening ceremony.      The JASDF's command centre relocation follows the lead of the JMSDF, which relocated its command centre to Yokosuka Naval Base: also home to the US Navy's 7th Fleet.      The Japan Ground Self-Defence Force's Central Readiness Force (CRF), which is currently based at Camp Asaka in Saitama Prefecture, is scheduled to move to Camp Zama, the home of US Army Japan, in March 2013.      Meanwhile, Defence Minister Naoki Tanaka said on 27 March that he expected to deploy PAC-3 interceptors in the Tokyo metropolitan area as well as on the Okinawa, Ishigaki and Miyako islands in southwestern Japan in anticipation of North Korea's satellite launch. Local media also reported that three Aegis-equipped destroyers would be deployed to the East China Sea and Sea of Japan to track the launch. Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2012 ASIA PACIFIC Date Posted: 27-Mar-2012 Jane's Defence Weekly Japan could provide Philippines with coastguard ships Kosuke Takahashi JDW Correspondent Tokyo James Hardy JDW Asia-Pacific Editor London The Japanese government is considering offering patrol vessels to the Philippine Coast Guard in Fiscal Year 2012 (FY12) as a form of overseas development aid, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs official told IHS Jane's on 27 March. Such an offer would be the first since the government eased its so-called 'three principles' on arms exports in December 2011, paving the way for Japan to participate in the international development and production of military equipment. Japan and the Philippines discussed the patrol vessels at a strategic dialogue between deputy ministerial-level government officials on 23 March, the official said.      "Japan and the Philippines have worked together previously, such as on anti-piracy measures," the official said. "Our bilateral relations have strengthened since the Japan-Philippine summit meeting last September." The Nikkei Shimbun newspaper reported on 22 March that the Philippines had requested two 1,000-ton class, 100 m-long patrol vessels and 10 180-ton class, 40 m-long patrol vessels. The official denied that such a request had been made and said discussions were ongoing. COMMENT The Philippine Coast Guard is predominantly concerned with search-and-rescue and coastal monitoring, although it does also have a dedicated special operations group. The largest ships in its inventory are four 56 m-long San Juan-class vessels built by Tenix and commissioned between 2000 and 2003. Japanese Coast Guard vessels in the 100 m-long class have a displacement of 1,500 tons and are customarily armed with one 20 mm JM-61 Vulcan Gatling-style gun and/or one 12.7 mm machine gun. The addition of such vessels would be a major capability lift for the coastguard and put it on a par with the Philippine Navy, which IHS Jane's World Navies describes as having "limited credible rapid deployment capability" and poor general readiness. "According to its own data, released in May 2011, only half of the craft listed in its inventory were afloat and not all these were operational." In light of this, Manila would welcome any offer of increased capability to help it patrol its 7,107 islands and the world's third-longest coastline behind Canada and Indonesia. The Philippines' acceptance of a former US Coast Guard cutter as its naval flagship also suggests that Japanese-supplied vessels could be used in a military role. That could see them involved in the country's attempts to press its claims to the Spratly Islands: a group of islands, atolls and reefs in the South China Sea that are also claimed by China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam. Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2012 ASIA PACIFIC Date Posted: 19-Mar-2012 Jane's Defence Weekly Japan threatens to shoot down North Korean rocket Kosuke Takahashi JDW Correspondent Tokyo Additional reporting by James Hardy Asia-Pacific Editor London Japan has threatened to shoot down a North Korean rocket if the missile threatens its territory. The warning came on 19 March from Japanese Defence Minister Naoki Tanaka, who said he would order the Japan Self-Defence Forces (SDF) to take action.    "If we judge it poses a danger to Japan, I will take the necessary steps [to issue a destruction order]," Tanaka said during a Budget Committee session at the House of Councillors. North Korea announced on 16 March that it would launch an Unha-3 rocket carrying an earth observation satellite called Kwangmyongsong-3 between 12 and 16 April, dates that coincide with celebrations for the 100th anniversary of the birth of regime founder Kim Il-sung. Japan's ballistic missile defence (BMD) system comprises 32 MIM-104F Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile interceptor batteries, in addition to batteries operated by US Forces Japan; four Kongo-class destroyers equipped with Standard SM-3 Block IA missiles; and two Atago-class destroyers equipped with the SM-2 Block IIIB system. Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba said it was possible the North Korean missile could fly over the Nansei Islands, which include Okinawa Prefecture and stretch southwest towards Taiwan in the East China Sea. If Tanaka does issue a destruction order, he will be following a precedent set by then defence minister Yasukazu Hamada, who, on 27 March 2009, activated Japan's missile defence system in response to North Korean missile launch plans. On 5 April 2009 the North launched an Unha-2 rocket reportedly carrying a Kwangmyongsong-2 satellite from the Musudan-ni/Tonghae launch base in northeastern North Korea. However, Tokyo took no action because the rocket was deemed to pose no danger. Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2012