(My latest story for Jane's Defence Weekly) US, Japan revise realignment plans for US forces

ASIA PACIFIC Date Posted: 27-Apr-2012 Jane's Defence Weekly US, Japan revise realignment plans for US forces Kosuke Takahashi JDW Correspondent Tokyo James Hardy JDW Asia-Pacific Editor London Key Points The US and Japan have unveiled a new agreement on the realignment of US forces currently based in Okinawa Prefecture The agreement moves forward with plans to relocate 9,000 US marines outside Japan without resolving the contentious Futenma air base replacement The United States and Japan on 26 April unveiled a revised agreement to transfer 9,000 US Marine Corps (USMC) troops from Okinawa Prefecture to Guam and other bases in the Western Pacific: a move intended to reduce the impact of US bases on the southern Japanese island chain. The accord, which updates a 2006 agreement on the realignment of US forces in Japan, will relocate about 5,000 marines from Okinawa to Guam - a US territory - and the remaining 4,000 to Hawaii and Australia. About 10,000 troops will remain in Okinawa. ''These adjustments are necessary to realise a US force posture in the Asia-Pacific region that is more geographically distributed, operationally resilient and politically sustainable,'' the joint statement said. The statement also opens up the possibility of reviewing a long-standing plan to relocate Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma. The local government has demanded the closure of the Futenma site, which is situated in a built-up area, but has rejected a plan to construct a sea-based replacement facility off Camp Schwab in the north of the island. While the agreement said this "remains the only viable solution that has been identified to date", the phrase "that has been identified to date" is an addition to previous statements. Another new development is a plan to consider developing sites in Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, such as the Tinian and Pagan islands, as shared-use exercise facilities for US forces and the Japan Self-Defence Forces. The agreement also confirmed that six military facilities south of Kadena Air Base will be returned to Japan, including Camp Kuwae, Camp Zukeran and MCAS Futenma, although the air station will remain open until a replacement is operational, a senior US official said. The two governments said the total cost of relocating marines and their dependents from Okinawa to Guam would be lowered to USD8.6 billion from the original USD10.27 billion. However, the cost to Japan has risen from a maximum of USD2.8 billion to USD3.1 billion, compensating for inflation. COMMENT The revised realignment is a partial victory for local residents and the prefectural government, both of which have faced down immense pressure from Tokyo to agree to the 2006 realignment plan and, in particular, the relocation of MCAS Futenma to the north of Okinawa island. A senior Obama administration official admitted as much in a background briefing, saying that "we've been spending so much time talking about the move from Futenma that we're not making as much progress as we would have liked in other aspects of the alliance". A senior Pentagon official concurred, admitting that the revised agreement relaxed the commitment to the Futenma replacement plan to give "the government of Japan the political space that it needs to advance the issue on Okinawa". US officials are eager to describe this agreement as naturally fitting a renewed focus on the region. The Pentagon official said it would provide "an improved USMC force posture in the Asia-Pacific, one that is more capable and more geographically distributed. This presence is integral to our larger strategy of rebalancing towards the Asia-Pacific". The official added that by removing a key sticking point the US-Japan alliance could focus on "a forward-looking agenda ... including co-operation in cyber security, in space, in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations. A number of areas where we really, I think, have a shared interest in deepening our co-operation". No timeline has been set for the realignment, but a number of actors could affect how quickly it occurs. These include senior members of the US Senate Armed Services Committee, who already said they were concerned about the cost of the realignment, and Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima.                       Under realignment plans announced on 26 April, the US will return six facilities on Okinawa to Japan, including Camp Kuwae, Camp Zukeran and Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma. (IHS/Roberto Filistad) Related Articles US, Japan postpone report on force realignment, jdw.janes.com, 26.04.12 Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2012