North Korea’s erratic behavior is now part of the East Asian landscape. It is widely taken as almost like a daily occurrence in the region. In Japan, since Pyongyang’s belligerent and proactive behavior is too familiar, ordinary people are not at all surprised to see it.
Then, why are Japanese and United States forces taking the launch so seriously? That's partly because it presents a perfect opportunity to simulate a Chinese missile attack. Please go over my story. Cheers, Kosuke
Asia Times Online :: Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch
Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch
Japan has prepared land-based missile interceptors and dispatched three Aegis-equipped destroyers in preparation for North Korea's launch of an "earth-observation satellite", prompting accusations that Tokyo is overreacting. However, part of the reason Japanese and United States forces are taking the launch so seriously is because it presents a perfect opportunity to simulate a Chinese missile attack. - Kosuke Takahashi (Apr 3, '12)
Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - As North Korea ramps up preparations for its planned mid-April launch of an "earth-observation satellite", Japan, South Korea and the United States are rushing to prepare weapons that could shoot it down.
The Japanese government is deploying warships and a missile shield to destroy any long-range missile that threatens its territory. "We must take all possible measures to protect Japanese lives and property," Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka said in response to North Korean missile launch plans, at the Ministry of Defense initiation ceremony on April 2.
To activate Japan's missile defense system and intercept the missile or any debris from it, the minister has ordered the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) to deploy land-based PAC-3 interceptors to a total of seven locations in the Tokyo metropolitan area as well as on the Okinawa, Ishigaki and Miyako islands in southwestern Japan.
In addition, three Kongo-class Aegis-equipped destroyers fitted with Standard SM-3 Block IA missiles, namely, Chokai, Kirishima and Myoko, are being deployed to the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan to track the launch.
"Although some people say Japan is overreacting this time, I do not think so," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online. "It would be too late once the damage is done. It's normal counter-measures as a nation."
Hideshi Takesada, a professor of international relations at South Korea's Yonsei University, takes a similar view: "Compared with Seoul's counter-measures, Japan is not overreacting. There is not much difference between the two nations."
With the assistance of the US Forces Korea, the South Korean government also plans to shoot down the North Korean rocket should it veer off course, causing the first stage booster to fall on its territory.
"Looking back at history, one Chinese rocket strayed off course, causing hundreds of casualties," said Takesada, a former executive director of the National Institute for Defense Studies in Tokyo, the Japanese Ministry of Defense's think-tank. In 1996, a Long March 3 rocket flew off course and crashed into a village, with estimates of deaths reaching over 100.
"It's necessary to expend all possible means to protect the lives and property of the people from a missile or any falling objects," said Takesada.
Pyongyang announced on March 16 that it would launch an Unha-3 rocket carrying an earth-observation satellite called Kwangmyongsong-3 between April 12 and 16, dates that coincide with celebrations for the 100th anniversary of the birth of founding father Kim Il-sung.
North Korea claims the impending launch is of a satellite launch vehicle (SLV) as opposed to a ballistic missile, as it claimed during a similar test in April 2009. But they are effectively the same technology. Even the launch of an SLV would strengthen North Korea's ballistic missile capabilities.
US-Japan military rehearsal
Another reason Japan and the US Forces Japan (USFJ) are taking North Korea's launch plan so seriously is that this presents a golden opportunity to simulate a missile attack from China. For the US and Japan, the preparation for the North's upcoming rocket launch are as good as joint exercises against a mock Chinese assault.
Those Chinese missiles that would be used in such an attack include its solid-fuelled intermediate-range ballistic missiles and the Dong Feng (DF)-21 family of medium-range ballistic missiles. The DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, known as the "aircraft carrier killer", has caused serious concern in US intelligence circles as it would boost Beijing's "anti-access/area denial" capability in the West Pacific. US officials believe it could limit the movements of the US Seventh Fleet region should conflict erupt there.
How to deal with a rising China is the biggest common interest of the US and Japan. China's growing naval power and its enhanced strike capabilities are reshaping the security dynamic in the region. This has caused the US to shift its security pivot toward the Asia-Pacific by expanding its military footprint in Australia, the Philippines and Singapore. With the Pentagon well aware of China's "anti-access/area denial" strategy and focused on the so-called AirSea battle concept, it aims to move US Marines currently stationed on Japan's Okinawa Island to other areas out of from China's missile strike range.
Japan, meanwhile, has also been strengthening security around the Nansei (Southwestern) Islands in Okinawa Prefecture by adopting a new concept called "Dynamic Defense Force" - a move that is apparently aimed at countering China's growing activities in the East China Sea. Under this new guideline, Tokyo aims to enhance the SDF presence in those islands.
"China cannot voice objections to an integrated US-Japan ballistic missile defense capability this time, as long as North Korea is a cause of the problem," Shikata, a professor at Teikyo University in Tokyo and retired lieutenant general of the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Forces. "North Korea's missile launch provides the US and Japan a good opportunity to go through a rehearsal against China's missile."
Closer integration of US and Japanese forces
A recent move to integrate the Japan Air Self-Defense Force's main command with the US Yokota Air Base, which is home to USFJ headquarters and the US 5th Air Force, suggest an increase in bilateral military cooperation is planned.
The move is part of a 2006 agreement on the realignment of USFJ. The new command center could soon have its first test if Pyongyang goes ahead with its planned satellite launch in mid-April. The center is expected to instruct Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) destroyers equipped with the Aegis system and the PAC-3 air Defense missile interceptor units.
The JMSDF has also already relocated its command centre to Yokosuka Naval Base: also home to the US Navy's 7th Fleet. The Japan Ground Self-Defense Force's Central Readiness Force, which is currently based at Camp Asaka in Saitama Prefecture, is also scheduled to move to Camp Zama, the home of US Army Japan, in March 2013. These moves are highly likely to strengthen the two nations' defense collaboration further against China and North Korea.
North Korea on March 27 reaffirmed its plan to launch a "satellite" despite the mounting international pressure. Experts expect this will be a serious blow to recent diplomatic recent progress between the North and the US. In response to Pyongyang's planned "satellite" launch, the US has suspended food aid to Pyongyang, saying it has broken the terms of a February 29 agreement to halt its nuclear activities.
Similarly in May 2008, the US announced it would resume food assistance to North Korea. But just a few months later Pyongyang refused to receive the US food assistance and kicked out American non-governmental organizations. This was followed by a missile launch in April 2009 and a second nuclear test in May 2009.
The US can share part of the blame for today's confusion concerning North Korea. The Barack Obama administration seems to have rushed towards negotiations with Pyongyang, eager for a foreign-policy success ahead of November's presidential election. Obama also likely believed he could take advantage of the leadership change following Dear Leader Kim Jong-il's death last December. President Bill Clinton tried to do the same in the wake of Kim Il-sung's death in 1994, but the subsequent agreements collapsed.
"The US was fooled again by Pyongyang," Shikata said. "It will maintain a cautious distance from North Korea from now on."
"The Obama administration underestimated North Korea," added Takesada. "It was put to shame in public."
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke
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