(Le Figaro) Chine-Japon : le grand rapprochement

http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2010/01/04/01003-20100104ARTFIG00310-chine-japon-le-grand-rapprochement-.php

Entre les deux puissances d'Asie, le poids historique de sanglants conflits s'estompe au profit d'un pragmatisme économique et stratégique. 2010 s'annonce comme l'année de gestes de réconciliation spectaculaires, prélude à une alliance plus étroite.

Un Chinois s'incruste chez l'empereur ! Le chef de l'Agence impériale ne décolère pas. Il y a une semaine, le premier ministre japonais, Yukio Hatoyama, lui a imposé en catastrophe la visite impromptue du vice-président chinois, Xi Jinping, probable successeur du président Hu Jintao. Une faveur exceptionnelle lorsqu'on sait qu'en vertu du protocole il faut un mois pour être reçu par Sa Majesté Akihito. Cette précipitation en dit long sur l'extraordinaire importance que le gouvernement japonais attache à la Chine. Quelques jours plus tôt, le tout-puissant secrétaire général du Parti démocrate du Japon (PDJ), Ichiro Ozawa, avait mené à Pékin une délégation de 643 sympathisants et membres de son parti pour des entretiens au plus haut niveau. Téléspectateurs japonais et chinois ont pu assister en prime time à une scène surréaliste : Hu Jintao se prêtant, bon prince, à une photo souvenir individuelle avec chacun des 143 parlementaires PDJ venus pour l'occasion ! Quelques semaines avant, le ministre de la Défense japonais avait accueilli à bras ouverts son homologue chinois, annonçant des exercices militaires communs.


La haine était une raison d'être du PC

Et tout ceci n'est qu'un hors-d'œuvre. Selon nos informations, le Parti communiste chinois aurait soumis au PDJ le scénario d'une réconciliation spectaculaire cette année : Yukio Hatoyama irait d'abord à Nankin, lieu des pires atrocités commises par l'Armée impériale japonaise lors de sa conquête de la Chine, pour présenter au peuple chinois des excuses officielles sans ambiguïté. Quelques mois plus tard, le 15 août, jour de l'anniversaire du bombardement atomique d'Hiroshima, Hu Jintao se rendrait à son tour dans la ville japonaise martyre pour y exposer les «trois principes» de la doctrine nucléaire chinoise : ne pas bombarder le premier, ne pas attaquer un pays non nucléarisé, ne pas exporter l'arme nucléaire.

Ichiro Ozawa, chef d'orchestre de ce rapprochement spectaculaire, est un vieil ami de la Chine. Il a fait ses classes sous le premier ministre Kakuei Tanaka, précisément celui qui, en 1972, a négocié la normalisation des relations diplomatiques entre le Japon et son immense voisin. Aujourd'hui, il s'efforce de donner un coup d'accélérateur à un réchauffement entamé en 2006.

Avant cette date, les relations japonaises allaient de mal en pis, otages d'enjeux de politique intérieure des deux côtés. À Pékin, l'ex-président Jiang Zemin avait trouvé dans la haine du Japon un motif de rassemblement pour les patriotes chinois (et une raison d'être pour le Parti communiste, historiquement légitimé par la lutte contre l'envahisseur japonais). «Lorsqu'il est venu au Japon, Jiang Zemin nous a bassinés avec l'histoire même au banquet avec l'empereur. Quelle impolitesse !», se souvient un convive japonais encore ulcéré. Du côté du Japon, le premier ministre Junichiro Koizumi leur donna les verges pour se faire fouetter en se rendant au sanctuaire shinto nationaliste Yasukuni en 2001.


Des secouristes japonais

La haine atteint son paroxysme lors des violentes émeutes antijaponaises qui secouèrent la Chine en 2005. Depuis, elle s'est dissipée. «Le Japon et la Chine sont engagés dans ce qu'ils appellent un partenariat stratégique. Hu Jintao a décidé de faire passer au second plan les querelles historiques. Il ne parle plus que des relations sino-japonaises de l'après-guerre, qui sont sans nuage», explique Ryosei Kokubun, professeur de l'Université Keio, le meilleur spécialiste des relations entre les deux pays.

Les dirigeants japonais et chinois multiplient les visites officielles. En 2007, le premier ministre chinois, Wen Jiabao, a prononcé devant la Diète japonaise un discours, retransmis en direct à la télévision chinoise, dans lequel il saluait les multiples excuses du gouvernement japonais à propos de la Seconde Guerre mondiale.

En mai 2008, une tragédie a achevé de rapprocher les frères ennemis d'Asie. Après le tremblement de terre du Sichuan, le Japon fut le premier pays à envoyer une équipe de secours sur les lieux du sinistre. Malgré la méfiance réciproque entre les opinions publiques, la télévision d'État chinoise consacra une très large couverture aux efforts des soixante secouristes japonais. En première page, les journaux chinois publièrent la photo de ces ennemis d'hier, voûtés et silencieux, prostrés par leur impuissance face à la mort, au milieu des décombres. «À partir de ce moment, l'image des Japonais a changé en Chine», estime Ryosei Kokubun.


70 millions de touristes chinois en 2020

Les hommes politiques font du rattrapage accéléré par rapport aux patrons. Car les liens économiques n'ont jamais été aussi forts. L'empire du Milieu est devenu l'atelier du Japon, son principal partenaire commercial, et demain son premier client. Il est indispensable à des groupes comme Nissan, Honda et Toyota, tant pour la production que pour les ventes. À Tokyo, les touristes chinois se pressent dans les restaurants et les boutiques, se substituant aux Japonais assagis par vingt ans de stagnation économique. «Le ministre des Transports est surexcité : il prévoit 70 millions de touristes chinois en 2020, soit autant que les touristes accueillis en France chaque année», s'étrangle le représentant d'une compagnie aérienne européenne à Tokyo.

Le discret Centre d'amitié sino-japonaise, au cœur de Tokyo, est un symbole des relations discrètes qu'ont nouées les deux pays depuis vingt ans, pendant lesquels l'un s'est affaissé, l'autre a décollé. «Nous avons fondé le centre sur l'exemple du traité de l'Élysée entre de Gaulle et Adenauer, qui a initié les échanges de jeunes Français et d'Allemands. C'est le meilleur moyen de rapprocher nos deux peuples. N'oubliez pas que la Chine est vingt-six fois plus grande que le Japon, avec une population dix fois supérieure», explique le président fondateur du Centre, Tatsumi Murakami. Au-dessus de son bureau, une immense et magnifique calligraphie offerte par Hu Jintao, qui se lit ainsi : «Avec la force de la jeunesse, faire régner la paix dans le monde.» À l'époque de la création du Centre, la Chine était encore un objet d'angoisse pour les Japonais. «Le jour de l'ouverture, en 1988, un camion de l'extrême droite a fendu la foule des convives sans que personne ne l'arrête», se rappelle Tatsumi Murakami. Depuis, ce bâtiment austère a accueilli près de 4.000 étudiants, notamment des centaines de doctorants «qui aujourd'hui sont à des postes clés de l'État chinois, dans les universités ou les entreprises», se félicite-t-il. Les anciens étudiants de l'école restent en contact avec leur famille d'accueil japonaise, notamment grâce à un logiciel de traduction simultanée conçu par le centre.

Cette amitié fondée sur l'oubli demeure cependant fragile. Les occasions de malentendus et de conflit sont infinies entre les deux puissances. La dernière crise a été causée par une affaire de raviolis chinois avariés qui ont empoisonné des milliers de Japonais. Un an après les faits, Tokyo demande toujours des explications et laisse cette affaire influencer sa diplomatie.

Mais c'est l'accès à l'énergie et aux matières premières qui est la première source de conflits entre la Chine et le Japon. Les deux pays se battent, par compagnies interposées, dans le monde entier. Chinois et Japonais sont respectivement les deuxième et troisième plus importants consommateurs de pétrole. Dépourvu d'or noir, le Japon doit importer la quasi-totalité de ses besoins. La Chine, elle, était autosuffisante en pétrole jusqu'en 1993. Aujourd'hui, plus de la moitié de ses besoins pétroliers sont importés, et son appétit ne cesse de grandir. Or les ressources ne sont pas infinies. Ce conflit n'est jamais plus évident que dans les eaux qui séparent la Chine du Japon, où Tokyo et Pékin se disputent trois gisements de gaz naturel et de pétrole. Les chancelleries des deux rives promettent périodiquement un règlement à l'amiable, mais elles ne règlent rien du tout et les quelques vaisseaux militaires qui naviguent autour de ces gisements frôlent parfois l'escarmouche. «Toutes les estimations concordent : ces champs n'ont pas un grand potentiel. Ils peuvent déclencher au pire une crise diplomatique, mais probablement pas un conflit», tempère David Hewitt, analyste du secteur pour CLSA. Selon la compagnie chinoise Cnooc, qui a déjà commencé à explorer lesdits gisements à la barbe des Japonais, les réserves représentent 22 millions de barils de pétrole et 67 millions de barils (équivalents) de gaz naturel. Une goutte d'or noir à l'échelle des réserves chinoises (1% des réserves pétrolières et 7% des réserves gazières de la Cnooc), mais une manne substantielle par rapport à celle des réserves japonaises.


La guerre de l'énergie

Une partie de la classe politique met en garde contre un rapprochement politique inconsidéré avec la Chine. «C'est simple : le budget militaire du Japon est le plus transparent du monde, tandis que le budget militaire chinois est le plus opaque», résume l'ancien ministre de la Défense Gen Nakatani. «Il est normal que le budget militaire chinois augmente comme il le fait de 10% par an. Après tout, il ne fait que suivre la croissance de l'économie. Mais ce que nous voudrions savoir, c'est où va cet argent. Et on ne nous le dit pas», s'inquiète Shigeru Ishiba, un des principaux leaders de l'opposition. «La Chine n'a certes l'intention d'attaquer personne. Mais elle n'est pas une démocratie. Sa politique peut changer d'un instant à l'autre. Au moins, avec les États-Unis, nous partageons les mêmes valeurs», dit-il.

Dans les couloirs du centre d'amitié nippo-chinoise, le jeune So Chin Shu bachote son japonais. «La politique ? Je m'en fous. J'aime le Japon. Les mangas, les dessins animés, les jeux vidéo… Pour moi il était naturel de venir ici», tranche-t-il.

Happy New Year!

Greetings for the new year!

As the new year starts, I wish for you, your family, and your companies happiness and growth.

In East Asia, 2010 is the Year of the Tiger.

My latest story: Japan eyes methane hydrate as energy savior (Asia Times)

Japan eyes methane hydrate as energy savior
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - Japan, the world's second-largest economy, may have found a way to reduce its almost total dependence on other countries for the oil that drives the industries on which the country's wealth is built.

Betting that Japan can extract and commercially exploit methane hydrate, the hoped-for alternative to oil, investors last week drove up the price of Japan Drilling, a company established in 1968 but only this month raising money by selling shares to the public.

Japan Drilling won the attention of market players because it is involved in the niche field of researching and developing methane hydrate.

The mineral is abundant in the seabeds surrounding Japan and may, over and above revitalizing the country's economy, reshape Tokyo's diplomatic and military relationships with the outside world, including the United States.

Japan has few mineral resources to speak of. It imports 99.7% of its crude oil, importing 87% of its oil from the Middle East. That makes the country heavily reliant on a secure sea lane stretching from the Middle East to Northeast Asia. Maintenance of good diplomatic relations with energy suppliers and with its military backer, the United States, is also essential.

Methane hydrate is a frozen methane gas found in a high-pressure, low-temperature environment, such as seabeds and beneath frozen ground. It is often called burning ice. Methane itself is a component of natural gas.

There are growing expectations that methane hydrate will come to serve as a valuable energy resource. The US, China, Canada and South Korea are among other countries seeking to develop commercially viable extraction technology.

In Japan, the government is backing efforts to complete research and development by 2018 and launch commercial production after that.

The volume of methane hydrate in seafloor sediments around Japan alone is estimated to be enough to provide energy equivalent to 90 years of the nation's natural gas usage today.

In 2007, the government announced that there were 1.14 trillion cubic meters of methane hydrates in a Pacific Ocean trench, the Nankai Trough, some 50 kilometers from the eastern coast of Honshu, the main Japanese island. This reserve is equivalent to almost 14 years of gas use by Japan at current rates - equivalent of a giant gas oil field. Other reserves are also buried around Japan.

There are, though, hitches. Much of Japan’s methane hydrate is in the seafloor 1,000 meters to 2,000 meters below the surface, making extraction a major technological challenge. In March 2008, the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp (JOGMEC) succeeded in extracting methane from methane hydrate reserves under the tundra of northwestern Canada. This extraction from a deposit more than a kilometer below the Earth's surface has been hailed as the major breakthrough for which Japan had been waiting.

A broader doubt hangs over the environmental suitability of methane hydrate, particularly as global concern over pollution of the atmosphere has become more intense thanks in part to publicity surrounding this month's Copenhagen climate talks. Although methane is a cleaner-burning fossil fuel than coal or oil, more than a few scientists and environmentalists are concerned that as-yet untapped methane hydrates represent "captured" greenhouse gasses that should remain locked under the sea.

Such concerns are rejected by Koji Yamamoto, a project director at the JOGMEC. "Can environmental disaster happen by gas hydrate production? The answer is no. Methane hydrate consists of pure water and methane, and no harmful substances.

"Some people are also afraid of a chain chemical reaction" in the extraction process, Yamamoto said. "However, it never happens. The gas hydrate is quite stable material ... Geological events of massive gas hydrate dissociation might be caused by changes in global scale ocean conditions. Artificial gas production is a completely different phenomenon."

Even so, to ease such environmental concerns, the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry in Tokyo has developed technology that will absorb carbon dioxide to increase production of methane hydrate. This technology uses the heat of carbon dioxide for hydrate production and is expected to limit the emission of greenhouse gases.

That should be good news for Japan Drilling, Japan's sole offshore drilling contractor, which listed on Thursday on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Investors certainly like the look of the stock, which after being offered at 3,800 yen per share on Thursday morning surged 59.2% in two days, closing at 6,050 yen on Friday.

But they might have to wait some time before they see full-scale commercial drilling and extraction. "Methane hydrate will surely help boost Japan's self-reliant defense," a Japanese military analyst, Toshiyuki Shikata, told Asia Times Online. "But it takes a long time to use it commercially. And it is still unsure if it pays off to invest in research and development of the mineral."

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as a Tokyo correspondent. He can be contacted at letters@kosuke.net.

(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

(Financial Times Editorial) Okinawa outcry

Okinawa outcry

Published: November 11 2009 20:09 | Last updated: November 11 2009 20:09

A decision by the new government of Japan to re-examine the location of a US marine helicopter base on the southern island of Okinawa has prompted talk of a dangerous rift in the US-Japan alliance. Robert Gates, US defence secretary, offended his Japanese hosts last month when he lectured them about foot-dragging, telling the new government it must stick to the deal made by its predecessor. A senior state department figure apparently went one stage further, telling the Washington Post that Japan, not China, was now the US’s most problematic relationship in Asia. That is nonsense.

To be fair, Jeff Bader, the senior director for East Asian affairs at the National Security Council, called the anonymous comments asinine. Yet Washington has clearly been taken aback by the Democratic Party of Japan’s decision to act on its election pledge of seeking to make the US-Japan alliance “more equal”. In particular, the Pentagon is frustrated at the prospect of having to renegotiate a 1996 deal, not yet implemented, to move the Futenma helicopter base.

The US has over-reacted and President Barack Obama, who arrives in Tokyo on Friday, would do well to admit as much. It is only natural the new Japanese government, having unseated the conservative Liberal Democratic party from half a century of virtually uninterrupted power, should conduct a thorough policy review.

Its stated ambition to forge a less dependent US relationship is actually to be welcomed. Old Japan hands in Washington seem to have forgotten that the LDP promised much but delivered little in the way of the support for US military operations that they wanted.

Nor is Mr Gates’ assertion credible that all previous agreements are sacrosanct. Only a few months ago the Obama administration dropped Bush-era plans for missile defence bases in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Certainly, the DPJ’s determination to look again at the Futenma base move is annoying for military strategists who spent years hammering out the previous deal. But talk that this somehow rattles the foundations of the US-Japan alliance, which has been crucial to postwar stability in the Pacific, is ludicrous. By being so impatient and pushing the new government into a corner, Washington is in danger of producing precisely the result it is trying to avoid. Given some time, the DPJ will reach a workable compromise. Mr Obama should use his rhetorical skills to give Japan’s government the space to do just that.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009. Print a single copy of this article for personal use. Contact us if you wish to print more to distribute to others.

Something wrong with the International Herald Tribune?

Today I could not believe my own eyes. The International Herald Tribune (IHT), published by the Asahi newspaper in Tokyo, placed Rolex’s full-page ads on the front page and the back page. Please see the above pictures.
The ordinary news section virtually begins with page 3.
The IHT may say it just wrapped up the newspaper itself in full-page ads.

Have you seen this type of newspaper ad before in your place?
Is this only happening at the International Herald Tribune/ The Asahi Shimbun published in Tokyo? Is this a new trend in newspaper ads?

I just wonder.

Remember Ike's farewell address?

Why not US journalists cruch out the US military industrial index? This has been causing a lot of troubles inside and outside the US for decades...Remember Ike's farewell address?

Eisenhower's Farewell Address to the Nation
January 17, 1961

"This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence – economic, political, even spiritual – is felt in every city, every Statehouse, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society."

For a change, I wrote about poorly performing Japanese stocks. Many thanks to Tetsuya Inoue-san at the Nomura Research Institute, Osamu Takashima-san and Naomi Fink-san at BTMU. The story was published by Asia Times today. If you have time, please go over

Capital rules weigh on Japan stocks

Good weekend! Cheers, Kosuke

Capital rules weigh on Japan stocks
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - Japan's economy has moved out of recession, but the country's stock market continues to suffer from the impending imposition of tougher international capital rules to be compiled by the end of this year in Basel, Switzerland.

The nation's financial sector, led by Japan's three megabanks - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Mizuho Financial Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group - is dragging down the recovery of Japanese share prices, on concerns that the lenders may seek additional capital increases by issuing common stock in preparation for the tighter capital-adequacy rules that will apply to globally active banks. A weak point of Japanese banks is that without ample ordinary shares they lack capital.

A recent spate of capital-raising in the already weak market in Tokyo, combined with a rising Japanese yen and a heightened sense of uncertainty about the fiscal policies of new Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's administration, are also hampering stocks.

On Wednesday, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group said it plans to bolster its capital base by issuing one trillion yen (US$11.2 billion) in new shares - a record public sale of additional common shares. This gave rise to speculation that other banks would follow suit.

Japanese stocks have been the worst performer among major economies this year. The key Nikkei stock index has risen only 7.2%. More notably, the broader Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues has fallen 2.4% - the only major broad-based stock index in the world that has lost ground this year. The Topix Index on Thursday fell for a seventh day, its longest losing streak since July, and slid to the lowest level since April 28, although it recouped some of its losses on Friday. The benchmark Nikkei average fell to its lowest level since July 17.

By contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 17%, while China's Shanghai Composite Index has climbed more than 80%, followed by Brazil's nearly 80% rally and India's more than 70% advance.

"It is true Japanese financial stocks are falling due to dilution concerns involving new shares," said Tetsuya Inoue, chief researcher for financial markets at the Nomura Research Institute in Tokyo and a former Bank of Japan official. "The new rules will also force Japanese banks to reconsider their traditional practice of holding shares in other companies over the long term."

Even so, he did not belive that new capital rules being finalized in Basel are specifically targeting Japanese banks. The change "has been discussed for many years and was finally agreed in principle in the Group of 20 (G-20) Pittsburgh summit in September."

The earlier BIS (Basel Capital Accord) agreement on strengthening the risk-capital adequacy requirement in the late 1980s and early 1990s "might have targeted the 'overpresence' of then burgeoning Japanese financial institutions, which foreigners often criticized," Inoue said. "But not so this time."

The Basel Committee
With the global financial crisis receding, international policymakers are working on adjusting rules on capital standards so as to avoid a repeat of the mistakes that can come from highly leveraged capitalism, exemplified by the failure in September last year of US investment bank Lehman Brothers. The planned changes will push banks to have a sufficient cushion of high-quality capital.

In September, leaders from 20 leading countries agreed at a summit in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to impose tougher capital requirements on banks operating internationally. Before this summit, central bank governors and banking regulators of 27 major countries and regions participating in the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision also arrived at the same agreement, designed to standardize minimum capital requirements for banking institutions.

The agreement requires banks to raise the ratio of so-called core capital such as common stock and retained earnings. Although the specifics of the requirements will be worked out by the year-end, the new bank capital rules are widely expected to require banks to hold core Tier 1 capital - mainly common stock and retained reserves - equal to at least 4% of total risky assets. Reuters on Thursday reported the Basel-based committee is likely to require at least 6%.

The tricky thing is that Japanese banks, which are seen as less affected by the subprime loan crisis than their US and European counterparts, generally have lower ratios of common stock in their capital than major US and European lenders.

The core Tier 1 capital at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial was 6.8% as of the end of September, at Mizuho Financial 5.4%, and at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial 5.9%, according to their latest press releases.

On the other hand, US-based Citigroup held 9.1% of core Tier 1 capital, and Bank of America 6.9%, thanks to huge injections of public funds into those banks, according to the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper on September 3.

Late last year, Mitsubishi UFJ issued around 790 billion yen in common shares and preferred stocks. Mizuho raised up to 526.3 billion yen in July by issuing new shares, while Sumitomo Mitsui issued 862.9 billion yen in new shares in the previous month. All seem to have aimed at bolstering their core Tier 1 capital.

With the contours of Mitsubishi UFJ's capital-raising plan for the second consecutive year now announced, attention turns to its two main competitors, in particular Mizuho, which lags in terms of core Tier 1 capital. Market players in Tokyo expect Mizuho and Sumitomo Mitsui to issue new shares early next year, possibly between January and February. This could further buffet the already sluggish stock market in Tokyo.

Political vacuum
Nomura's Inoue said it is unfortunate that the "political vacuum" created by the transition process following the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)'s sweeping victory over the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a House of Representatives election on August 30 coincided with the intensive discussions regarding banking standards going in the US and the Europe.

Japan's then finance minister, Kaoru Yosano of the LDP, did not attend a meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors in London in early September, which was aimed at determining the priorities of the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh on September 24 to 25. His absence, attributed to health reasons, raised concern about Japan's low-key presence at the ministerial meeting.

The authorities in the US "have in effect been introducing a tougher de-facto standard for capital adequacy since bank stress tests in May, although it is unclear whether that was intended or not. For the Japanese side, frustration has arisen," Inoue said.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent.

(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)