The White House statement, the Susan Rice statement and Campbell's remarks

The White House

Office of the Press Secretary

For Immediate Release

April 12, 2012

Statement by the Press Secretary on North Korea’s Missile Launch

Despite the failure of its attempted missile launch, North Korea’s provocative action threatens regional security, violates international law and contravenes its own recent commitments. While this action is not surprising given North Korea’s pattern of aggressive behavior, any missile activity by North Korea is of concern to the international community. The United States remains vigilant in the face of North Korean provocations, and is fully committed to the security of our allies in the region.

The President has been clear that he is prepared to engage constructively with North Korea. However, he has also insisted that North Korea live up to its own commitments, adhere to its international obligations and deal peacefully with its neighbors.

North Korea is only further isolating itself by engaging in provocative acts, and is wasting its money on weapons and propaganda displays while the North Korean people go hungry. North Korea's long-standing development of missiles and pursuit of nuclear weapons have not brought it security – and never will. North Korea will only show strength and find security by abiding by international law, living up to its obligations, and by working to feed its citizens, to educate its children, and to win the trust of its neighbors.

Remarks by Ambassador Susan E. Rice, U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, at the Security Council Stakeout on North Korea and Guinea-Bissau, April 13, 2012

Susan E. Rice
U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations
U.S. Mission to the United Nations

New York, NY

April 13, 2012

Good afternoon. The Council has discussed this morning both the situation with respect to DPRK and Guinea-Bissau, and I will brief you on both.
With respect to the first issue, the Council has just concluded consultations about the launch conducted yesterday by North Korea. The Council received a briefing from UN Assistant Secretary-General Oscar Fernandez-Taranco regarding the launch. Assistant Secretary-General Fernandez-Taranco reported that North Korea apparently launched a multi-stage rocket at 6:39 p.m. yesterday, Eastern Daylight Time. The launch was a failure.

He noted that the Secretary-General had released a statement regarding the launch in which the Secretary-General called the launch "deplorable as it defies the firm and unanimous stance of the international community" and noted that the "launch is in direct violation of Security Council Resolution 1874 and threatens regional stability." The Secretary-General also renewed his call on North Korean authorities to work towards building confidence with neighboring countries and improving the lives of its people.

Following our discussion, Council members have asked me to say the following on their behalf:

The Security Council held consultations to address the serious situation and listen to the concerns arising from the launch by North Korea. Members of the Security Council deplored this launch, which is in violation of Security Council Resolutions 1718 and 1874.

Members of the Security Council agreed to continue consultations on an appropriate response, in accordance with its responsibilities, given the urgency of the matter.

Now I’ll turn to Guinea-Bissau. The Council received a briefing on the situation in Guinea-Bissau from Assistant-Secretary-General Zerihoun. He noted that the situation is evolving rapidly and that it is not easy to confirm information at this time.

The military has arrested the Prime Minister, as well as Acting President Herrera. Their whereabouts cannot be confirmed at this time. The Secretariat urged the international community to address the cycle of violence and impunity in Guinea-Bissau. The members of the Security Council condemned the military action and urged the immediate restoration of civilian authority.

Council members are now discussing a press statement. I’m happy to take a few questions.

Reporter: Ambassador Rice, do you expect the US to be pushing for sanctions or interested in sanctions on North Korea? And do you expect a presidential statement, press statement or anything like that in the near future?

Ambassador Rice: I’m not going to characterize the form of the response. This is the subject of early stage discussions among Council members.

Reporter: Ambassador, though, with an appropriate response, you have an opinion in terms of your national capacity. Can you speak to that, perhaps?

Ambassador Rice: I--the United States’ view of this is quite clear. We have condemned the launch. We view it as a direct violation of Resolutions 1718 and 1874. We think it’s important that the Council respond credibly. And we will be working in that direction.

Reporter: Will that be a sanctions resolution?

Ambassador Rice: As I said, I think it’s premature, both in my national capacity and as president of the Security Council, to predict or characterize the form of the reaction. We think a credible reaction is important.

Reporter: Ambassador, will you be discussing DPRK later on today? (Inaudible.)

Ambassador Rice: We have a very full agenda, many issues are brewing simultaneously and we’re working them simultaneously.

Reporter: How soon do you want to reach an agreement on the next appropriate measure? I mean, you are discussing other urgent matters but North Korea is also very urgent, so how –

Ambassador Rice: It is, and we’re working on it. And we will let you know when we have more to say. Thank you very much.

(My latest for Asia Times) Failure will hit Kim hard

For the Japanese and South Korean governments, today became a very hectic day. I also spent a very busy day. Before heading to Nikkei CNBC studio to appear as a TV guest on North Korean issues,  I had to finish the following story very quickly.
I appeared on Nikkei CNBC as Tokyo correspondent for Jane's Defence Weekly. Today became a memorable day for me!
Have a good weekend!
Cheers,
Kosuke

Asia Times Online :: Korea News and Korean Business and Economy, Pyongyang News

Failure will hit Kim hard
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - North Korea's missile-cum-satellite broke up in the air on Friday morning, so did a beacon of hope for the building of a "strong and prosperous nation".

The news of the failed launch may have shocked Pyongyang, which had for weeks trumpeted the endeavor as a major achievement, but it has brought some comfort to Washington, Tokyo and Seoul. These were among countries that called on North Korea to call off the launch - experts say the Unha-3 carrier's rocket technology could be used to strike the US and other targets with a long-range missile.

In a very rare move, North Korea ate boiled crow. It acknowledged at noon on state television that a satellite launched a few hours earlier from the west coast had failed to enter into orbit, splintering into pieces over the Yellow Sea soon after take-off. "The earth observation satellite failed to enter its preset orbit," the state-run Korean Central News Agency said. "Scientists, technicians and experts are now looking into the cause of the failure."

The failure is a major setback for the young North Korean leader Kim Jong-eun, who aimed to boost his domestic legitimacy and rigidity by launching what the North called an Earth-observation satellite two days ahead of celebrations for the 100th anniversary on Sunday of the birth of founding father Kim Il-sung. Kim Jong-eun's "yes" men and Pyongyang people who were in an enthusiastically festive mood will also be devastated.

"Inviting many foreign media, North Korea has become an object of public ridicule in the world," Masao Okonogi, emeritus professor at Keio University in Tokyo and a noted expert on the affairs of the Korean Peninsula, told Asia Times Online on Friday. "It has acted with arrogance and recklessness more than needed. To recover fallen prestige, it may adopt a more belligerent stance towards other nations."

Okonogi said that since Pyongyang believed the US, Japan and South Korea would now not take North Korea's threats seriously, given the failed rocket launch, it would take the risky step of conducting its third nuclear test.

"North Korea is only further isolating itself by engaging in provocative acts, and is wasting its money on weapons and propaganda displays while the North Korean people go hungry," the US White House said in a statement after the launch. "North Korea's long-standing development of missiles and pursuit of nuclear weapons have not brought it security - and never will."

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Friday ordered an emergency meeting to condemn the failed launch, but it is unlikely to order immediate new sanctions against the isolated state, although Japan and South Korea are taking tougher stances.

This is because it is believed China will only allow the UNSC to vote on a resolution condemning the launch, but will not back any attempts to impose fresh sanctions against Pyongyang. Experts expect Beijing will do everything in its power to prevent North Korea from being destabilized.

Since the beginning of the Cold War, North Korea had been seen as China's first line of defense and strategic buffer zone vis-a-vis the Western bloc, led by the US. Beijing is also afraid of a refugee flood once public safety gets worse in North Korea.

Hiroyasu Akutsu, a professor and senior fellow at the National Institute for Defense Studies, a Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD) think-tank, takes a similar view as Okonogi.

"North Korea aims to become a science-and-technology powerhouse as well as a strong and prosperous nation," Akutsu said. "So today's rocket launch failure should be very shocking to them."

Akustu said, depending on how strongly the UNSC) acted against North Korea, led by the lobbying of the US, Japan and South Korea, the risk remained that Pyongyang would continue to resort to missile-firing, nuclear tests and other provocations to demonstrate to the rest of world its military capabilities.

"Kim Jong-eun's new regime is calling for a continuation of songun [military first] politics, so it will continue to pursue its nuclear and missile development programs to boost its national prestige and strengthen the regime's foundations."

North Korea conducted similar long-range Taepodong-2 tests in 2006 and 2009, but with unsuccessful results.

A source close to Japan's defense intelligence said Kim Jong-eun pushed the rocket-firing button on Friday under pressure from the powerful military to coincide with the celebrations for the anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, despite a lack of full preparations for the launch.

Akutsu at Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies also pointed out that among the military power elite is Korean People's Army chief of staff Ri Yong-ho, believed to be one of Kim Jong-eun's closest confidants.

Ri is thought to have been a supervisor of Jong-eun when the young leader studied at the Kim Il Sung Military Academy. His thesis was said to be "Missile Guidance by GPS", according to the Japanese intelligence community.

Among other military officers who pressed the young master of the nation to conduct the launch include Pak To-chun, Ju Kyu-chang and Paek Se-bong. They have been called the "three-man team of missile guidance" by the South Korean intelligence community and were recently promoted to high-ranking generals, despite their previous civilian status.

Japanese experts on North Korea think Kim Jong-eun cannot easily punish them over the launch failure because of his heavy dependence on them in terms of political management and the ruling of the country. Akutsu said they would more likely receive an amnesty thanks to the celebration of the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birth for Sunday.

Okonogi at Keio University, meanwhile, pointed out that North Korean moderates such as its foreign affairs bureaucrats will gain more power, rather than hardliners in military circles in the wake of the debacle.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

(My latest story for Asia Times Online): Rocket reaction follows familiar trajectory

Asia Times Online :: Rocket reaction follows familiar trajectory

Rocket reaction follows familiar trajectory
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - As North Korean leader Kim Jong-eun completes his official ascent to power this week at rare party conferences, Pyongyang will almost certainly go ahead with its launch of what it claims is a satellite but which other countries insist is a ballistic missile.

The United States, Japan and South Korea have all indicated that they will call for United Nations Security Council (UNSC) action if North Korea presses ahead with its launch between April 12 and 16. The United Kingdom and Russia have also demanded that North Korea cancel it, while even ally China has expressed concerns.

Pyongyang says the launch is part of mass celebrations to mark the centenary of the birth of founding father Kim Il-sung, and has warned that despite the mounting international pressure, any interception of the "Earth-observation satellite" Kwangmyongsong-3 would amount to "an act of war".

The same threats were heard during a similar North Korean rocket launch in April 2009, and analysts say that in many aspects, history is repeating itself.

"The current situation seems to be following the same pattern as 2009," Masao Okonogi, emeritus professor at Keio University in Tokyo and a well-noted expert on the affairs of the Korean Peninsula, told Asia Times Online on Wednesday.

A repeat of 2009?
It may be worth while looking a little deeper into related events in 2009.

On April 5 that year, North Korea launched an Unha-2 rocket carrying a satellite called Kwangmyongsong-2; it was a startling early-morning wake-up call to then traveling US President Barack Obama, who was in Prague.

In the following week, the UNSC issued a presidential statement condemning the launch as a violation of UNSC resolution 1718, which was adopted in October 2006 in the aftermath of the North's first nuclear test in the same month. North Korea must not "conduct any further nuclear test or launch of a ballistic missile" wrote resolution 1718, adding that it must "suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program".

Pyongyang reacted harshly at the time. It declared that the Security Council statement "violently infringed on our republic's sovereignty and gravely defiled our people's dignity" and vowed to not return to six-party talks aimed at the North's scrapping of its nuclear arms program that hadn't - and still haven't - been held since December 2008.

Pyongyang warned that it would "strengthen its self-defensive nuclear deterrent in every way". The North conducted a second nuclear test on May 25, 2009, six weeks after the statement was issued.

North Korea claims the impending launch is of a satellite launch vehicle (SLV) as opposed to a ballistic missile, as it claimed during a similar test in April 2009. But they are effectively the same technology. Even the launch of a SLV would strengthen North Korea's ballistic missile capabilities. For this reason, UNSC resolution 1874 is relevant. Adopted in June 2009, it demands Pyongyang "not conduct any further nuclear test or any launch using ballistic missile technology".

"North Korea is now playing a diplomatic game with two dimensions," Okonogi said.

According to him, Pyongyang's first aim is to develop nuclear and missile programs that boost its negotiating stance against the US. Okonogi says that this is part of a strategic "grand design" to acquire the deterrent capabilities that will ultimately achieve a peace treaty with the US, which includes provisions for the withdrawal of US combat troops from South Korea.

"In this sense, North Korea will no doubt conduct a third nuclear test," Okonogi said.

The second diplomatic game, which Okinogi says is on a smaller scale, deals with the so-called "leap-day deal" on a nuclear moratorium with the US.

After talks between top US and North Korea officials on February 29, the North agreed to stop nuclear tests, uranium enrichment and long-range missile launches, and to allow checks by nuclear inspectors. In return, Washington said it was ready to go ahead with a proposed 240,000 tonne food aid package and that more aid could be agreed to based on continued need.

Okonogi said that with the US presidential election approaching, Pyongyang thinks Washington won't be able to take hardline measures that create yet an additional diplomatic problem to the tensions with Iran over its nuclear program. A third nuclear test by the North would give fresh ammunition to Republican presidential nominee former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Obama's critics, hurting his chances of re-election.

Kim Jong-eun is likely copying other successful instances of North Korea adopting a belligerent stance towards the US. For example, the George W Bush administration in October 2008 removed North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism even after the Pyongyang's first nuclear test in October 2006.

Pyongyang at that time had resorted to its favorite tactic of brinkmanship to escalate tensions and wring concessions. It said it was working on restarting its nuclear plant and dismissed the prospect of being removed from a US terrorism blacklist in return for a disarmament deal.

The Bush administration, however, was very eager for a rare foreign-policy success in its final months in office and made a series of compromises toward Pyongyang - a similar pattern.

The Obama administration must measure a tougher stance against Pyongyang with concerns of a third nuclear test in coming months. On the other hand, backtracking hands North Korea's young master Kim Jong-eun a diplomatic victory against the US. Once again, the North presents Washington with a thorny dilemma.

China against further UN sanctions
Complicating the issue, analysts say China will veto any UN statement suggesting fresh UNSC sanctions as well as any US attempts to impose additional punitive measures against North Korea following the launch of its Unha-3 rocket.

"If the US, Japan or South Korea ask for additional sanctions, China will oppose them," said Satoru Miyamoto, an expert on North Korean affairs in Japan and an associate professor at Seigakuin University's General Research Institute in Saitama prefecture,

Miyamoto said Beijing would do everything in its power to prevent North Korea from being destabilized, citing neighboring China's geographical and geopolitical closeness to the Hermit Kingdom.

He points out that since 2009, China has opposed UN statements against North Korea to avoid letting the situation deteriorate further for the sake of Beijing, and that Beijing has a vital interest such as the North's alleged March 2010 sinking of South Korean navy corvette Cheonan.

"All sides should respect international law to prevent the worsening of tensions on the peninsula," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said on April 10.

Beijing is concerned that the launch, which could take place around the time on the centenary of Kim Il-sung's birth, will trigger a new regional crisis, much to Beijing's embarrassment.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

(My latest for Jane's Defence Weekly) Russia stepping up air surveillance around Japan

ASIA PACIFIC Date Posted: 10-Apr-2012 Jane's Defence Weekly Russia stepping up air surveillance around Japan Kosuke Takahashi JDW Correspondent Tokyo The Russian Pacific Fleet has been increasing its air surveillance missions over the Sea of Japan and in the Western Pacific where Japan and the United States have deployed Aegis-equipped destroyers ahead of North Korea's planned satellite launch. Russian Ilyushin Il-38 ('May') aircraft flew over the Sea of Japan on 22 March, 29 March and 6 April, while two Tupolev Tu-142s appeared over the Pacific side of the Japanese archipelago on 27 March, according to the Joint Staff Office of Japan's Ministry of Defence (MoD). On all occasions the Japan Air Self-Defence Force (JASDF) scrambled fighter aircraft such as Mitsubishi F-15Js to intercept the Russian aircraft, it added. "As tensions run high over North Korea's expected rocket launch, Russian aircraft seem to be carrying out surveillance missions," an MoD official said. Russia also may want to carry out surveillance on the ongoing joint US-South Korean 'Foal Eagle' exercise, which runs from 1 March to 30 April, the official said. To activate Japan's missile defence system and intercept the missile or any debris from North Korea's rocket, the Japan Self-Defence Forces have deployed land-based PAC-3 interceptors to seven locations in the Tokyo metropolitan area as well as on the Okinawa, Ishigaki and Miyako islands in southwestern Japan. In addition, three Kongo-class Aegis-equipped destroyers fitted with Standard SM-3 Block IA missiles, JS Chokai , JS Kirishima and JS Myoko , have been deployed to the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan to track the launch. Japan's NHK TV station reported on 10 April that the US Navy had deployed USS Shiloh , a Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser, near Miyako island, while US-based CNN reported that the US had sent the Sea-Based X-band Radar One (SBX-1), its most advanced mobile radar system, from Pearl Harbor to the northeastern Pacific. Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2012

Here lies the root cause of the problems of the military bases in Okinawa.

Attitudes toward Okinawa in Japan, 1945-1947

On September 20, 1947, Hirohito conveyed to MacArthur's political adviser, William J. Sebald, his position on the future of Okinawa. Acting through Terasaki, his interpreter and frequent liaison with high GHQ officials, the emperor requested that, in view of the worsening confrontation between the Soviet Union and the United States, the American military occupation of Okinawa and other islands in the Ryukyu chain continue for ninety-nine years. Hirohito knew MacArthur's latest views on the status of Okinawa when he made this offer. [MacArthur had been quoted as saying, "The Ryukyus are our natural frontier" and "the Okinawans are not Japanese."] The emperor's thinking on Okinawa was also fully in tune with the colonial mentality of Japan's mainstream conservative political elites, who, like the national in general, had never undergone decolonization. Back in December 1945, the Eighty-ninth Imperial Diet had abolished the voting rights of the people of Okinawa along with those of the former Japanese colonies of Taiwan and Korea. Thus, when the Ninetieth Imperial Diet had met in 1946 to accept the new "peace" constitution, not a single representative of Okinawa was present.

Hirohito's　"Okinawa　message"　proved　that　he　was　continuing　to　play　a　secret　role　in　both　foreign　and　domestic policy affairs that had nothing to do with the ceremonial role to which the constitution confined him. But it also　suggested　the　great　weight　he　placed　on　"the　growth　of　[Japanese]　rightist　and　leftist　groups” who could provoke an incident which the Soviet Union might exploit. Hirohito, like the Foreign Ministry, wanted to retain an American military presence in and around Japan after the signing of a peace treaty. At the same time, he may also have felt the need to draw closer to the United States for protection while the Tokyo Trials continued. But above all, his message shows the connection between the new symbol monarchy, Article 9 of the new postwar constitution, and the American militarization of Okinawa.

 

SOURCE: Hirohito and the Making of Modern Japan, by Herbert P. Bix (HarperCollins, 2000), pp. 626-627

US Senator Jim Webb at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan

US Senator Jim Webb, chairman of the East Asia and Pacific Affairs subcommittee, on April 5 said the so-called Air-Sea Battle(ASB) concept does not affect the strategic significance of the Marines in Okinawa, stressing the importance of the US military presence on the Japanese island.

 

 

He said US Marines on Okinawa have what he calls a "homogeneous tactical package,"  meaning all the elements necessary for immediate deployment into a hostile environment. 

To learn more about the content of his speech, please subscribe to Jane's Defence Weekly http://jdw.janes.com/public/jdw/index.shtml

(My latest story for Asia Times Online): Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch

North Korea’s erratic behavior is now part of the East Asian landscape. It is widely taken as almost like a daily occurrence in the region. In Japan, since Pyongyang’s belligerent and proactive behavior is too familiar, ordinary people are not at all surprised to see it.

Then, why are Japanese and United States forces taking the launch so seriously? That's partly because it presents a perfect opportunity to simulate a Chinese missile attack. Please go over my story. Cheers, Kosuke

Asia Times Online :: Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch

Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch
Japan has prepared land-based missile interceptors and dispatched three Aegis-equipped destroyers in preparation for North Korea's launch of an "earth-observation satellite", prompting accusations that Tokyo is overreacting. However, part of the reason Japanese and United States forces are taking the launch so seriously is because it presents a perfect opportunity to simulate a Chinese missile attack. - Kosuke Takahashi (Apr 3, '12)

Japan sets sights on Pyongyang's launch
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - As North Korea ramps up preparations for its planned mid-April launch of an "earth-observation satellite", Japan, South Korea and the United States are rushing to prepare weapons that could shoot it down.

The Japanese government is deploying warships and a missile shield to destroy any long-range missile that threatens its territory. "We must take all possible measures to protect Japanese lives and property," Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka said in response to North Korean missile launch plans, at the Ministry of Defense initiation ceremony on April 2.

To activate Japan's missile defense system and intercept the missile or any debris from it, the minister has ordered the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) to deploy land-based PAC-3 interceptors to a total of seven locations in the Tokyo metropolitan area as well as on the Okinawa, Ishigaki and Miyako islands in southwestern Japan.

In addition, three Kongo-class Aegis-equipped destroyers fitted with Standard SM-3 Block IA missiles, namely, Chokai, Kirishima and Myoko, are being deployed to the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan to track the launch.

"Although some people say Japan is overreacting this time, I do not think so," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online. "It would be too late once the damage is done. It's normal counter-measures as a nation."

Hideshi Takesada, a professor of international relations at South Korea's Yonsei University, takes a similar view: "Compared with Seoul's counter-measures, Japan is not overreacting. There is not much difference between the two nations."

With the assistance of the US Forces Korea, the South Korean government also plans to shoot down the North Korean rocket should it veer off course, causing the first stage booster to fall on its territory.

"Looking back at history, one Chinese rocket strayed off course, causing hundreds of casualties," said Takesada, a former executive director of the National Institute for Defense Studies in Tokyo, the Japanese Ministry of Defense's think-tank. In 1996, a Long March 3 rocket flew off course and crashed into a village, with estimates of deaths reaching over 100.

"It's necessary to expend all possible means to protect the lives and property of the people from a missile or any falling objects," said Takesada.

Pyongyang announced on March 16 that it would launch an Unha-3 rocket carrying an earth-observation satellite called Kwangmyongsong-3 between April 12 and 16, dates that coincide with celebrations for the 100th anniversary of the birth of founding father Kim Il-sung.

North Korea claims the impending launch is of a satellite launch vehicle (SLV) as opposed to a ballistic missile, as it claimed during a similar test in April 2009. But they are effectively the same technology. Even the launch of an SLV would strengthen North Korea's ballistic missile capabilities.

US-Japan military rehearsal
Another reason Japan and the US Forces Japan (USFJ) are taking North Korea's launch plan so seriously is that this presents a golden opportunity to simulate a missile attack from China. For the US and Japan, the preparation for the North's upcoming rocket launch are as good as joint exercises against a mock Chinese assault.

Those Chinese missiles that would be used in such an attack include its solid-fuelled intermediate-range ballistic missiles and the Dong Feng (DF)-21 family of medium-range ballistic missiles. The DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, known as the "aircraft carrier killer", has caused serious concern in US intelligence circles as it would boost Beijing's "anti-access/area denial" capability in the West Pacific. US officials believe it could limit the movements of the US Seventh Fleet region should conflict erupt there.

How to deal with a rising China is the biggest common interest of the US and Japan. China's growing naval power and its enhanced strike capabilities are reshaping the security dynamic in the region. This has caused the US to shift its security pivot toward the Asia-Pacific by expanding its military footprint in Australia, the Philippines and Singapore. With the Pentagon well aware of China's "anti-access/area denial" strategy and focused on the so-called AirSea battle concept, it aims to move US Marines currently stationed on Japan's Okinawa Island to other areas out of from China's missile strike range.

Japan, meanwhile, has also been strengthening security around the Nansei (Southwestern) Islands in Okinawa Prefecture by adopting a new concept called "Dynamic Defense Force" - a move that is apparently aimed at countering China's growing activities in the East China Sea. Under this new guideline, Tokyo aims to enhance the SDF presence in those islands.

"China cannot voice objections to an integrated US-Japan ballistic missile defense capability this time, as long as North Korea is a cause of the problem," Shikata, a professor at Teikyo University in Tokyo and retired lieutenant general of the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Forces. "North Korea's missile launch provides the US and Japan a good opportunity to go through a rehearsal against China's missile."

Closer integration of US and Japanese forces
A recent move to integrate the Japan Air Self-Defense Force's main command with the US Yokota Air Base, which is home to USFJ headquarters and the US 5th Air Force, suggest an increase in bilateral military cooperation is planned.

The move is part of a 2006 agreement on the realignment of USFJ. The new command center could soon have its first test if Pyongyang goes ahead with its planned satellite launch in mid-April. The center is expected to instruct Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) destroyers equipped with the Aegis system and the PAC-3 air Defense missile interceptor units.

The JMSDF has also already relocated its command centre to Yokosuka Naval Base: also home to the US Navy's 7th Fleet. The Japan Ground Self-Defense Force's Central Readiness Force, which is currently based at Camp Asaka in Saitama Prefecture, is also scheduled to move to Camp Zama, the home of US Army Japan, in March 2013. These moves are highly likely to strengthen the two nations' defense collaboration further against China and North Korea.

North Korea on March 27 reaffirmed its plan to launch a "satellite" despite the mounting international pressure. Experts expect this will be a serious blow to recent diplomatic recent progress between the North and the US. In response to Pyongyang's planned "satellite" launch, the US has suspended food aid to Pyongyang, saying it has broken the terms of a February 29 agreement to halt its nuclear activities.

Similarly in May 2008, the US announced it would resume food assistance to North Korea. But just a few months later Pyongyang refused to receive the US food assistance and kicked out American non-governmental organizations. This was followed by a missile launch in April 2009 and a second nuclear test in May 2009.

The US can share part of the blame for today's confusion concerning North Korea. The Barack Obama administration seems to have rushed towards negotiations with Pyongyang, eager for a foreign-policy success ahead of November's presidential election. Obama also likely believed he could take advantage of the leadership change following Dear Leader Kim Jong-il's death last December. President Bill Clinton tried to do the same in the wake of Kim Il-sung's death in 1994, but the subsequent agreements collapsed.

"The US was fooled again by Pyongyang," Shikata said. "It will maintain a cautious distance from North Korea from now on."

"The Obama administration underestimated North Korea," added Takesada. "It was put to shame in public."

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)